Is No On 1 loss due to Obama?

Published Nov 06 2009, 03:58 PM by Jeff Inglis

John Aravosis at gay.americablog.com has an interesting account of the interplay between the DNC, the Obama administration, the New Jersey governor's race, and the No On 1 campaign here in Maine.

One very interesting point he makes is that the 2008 presidential race had far more people cast ballots than the 2009 No On 1 race. That's not that much of a surprise - it was an off-year election, after all - but it does raise the question of whether Obama's machine could have made a difference.

By Aravosis's calculation, 122,000 Obama voters didn't cast ballots at all this year. (I'm not certain about his math, but it seems clear that around 150,000 people who voted for either Obama or McCain didn't cast ballots in the No On 1 election. The split is where I lose his chain of logic.)

Anyway, given that 31,000 more No On 1 voters would have turned the tide, and that number is just 1 in 5 of the people who didn't vote at all, it does make some sense that if Obama and the DNC had stepped up and used their voter lists, more people might have shown up at the polls. Maybe not, and it's certainly not a given, but an interesting concept to explore, as the gay community in America wrestles with its opinion of Obama.

Filed Under: Obama, gay marriage, same-sex marriage, No On 1

Abortion and the health-care bill

4 Comments

Elliott said:

I am more interested in why the No on 1 campaign raised twice as much money, but the Yes on 1 people seemed to run 2-3 times more TV commercials.

November 6, 2009 10:40 PM
Nigel said:

You never know; out in California in 2008, it ironically was the swell of Obama supporters who tipped the scales towards outlawing gay marriage. Of course, the voter demographics are a bit different in Maine *cough*.

November 7, 2009 8:39 AM
Nigel said:

Elliott,

Obviously No on 1 voters were less likely to watch TV, unlike the Yes on 1 proles.

November 9, 2009 11:06 AM
Jim said:

The Obama/DNC voter lists would not have helped. The No On 1 campaign had full access to the Maine Democratic Party's voter lists, and in Maine state-party voter lists have always been much, much more accurate than those of national groups. Obama & the DNC might have been able to do more to help, but not with lists.

November 13, 2009 12:34 PM

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Filed Under: Obama, gay marriage, same-sex marriage, No On 1

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Is No On 1 loss due to Obama?

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