More on that grim Globe prediction

Published Mar 11 2009, 11:31 AM by Adam Reilly

As Dan Kennedy has already noted, Time didn't predict the Globe's demise--and there's reason to question the dire assessment of the actual predictor, Wall Street 24/7's Douglas McIntyre.

Here are a couple more points worth noting about McIntyre's forecast. I emailed him yesterday to ask what methodology he'd used in compiling his list; whether the numbers assigned to various papers actually meant anything (i.e., whether he considers the Philly Daily News, at No. 1, is the most likely to go extinct or online only); and whether the recent valuation of the Globe at $192 million--as opposed to the dubious $20 million valuation cited by McIntyre--might make him rethink his Globe prognosis.

In his response, McIntyre didn't address his methodology at all. He did, however, say that the list isn't in any particular order. And he simply rejected the notion that the higher Globe valuation (first reported by the Boston Business Journal) could be legit.

"The Globe is losing $50 million a year. It is not worth $200 million," McIntyre wrote. "...If NYT could get $200 million for the Globe they would take it. There are not any buyers just as there weren't for the Rocky, Miami Herald, or SF Chronicle. There is reason that no one is making offers. It costs too much to keep the properties open."

The next time someone cites McIntyre's claims, this stuff might be worth mentioning, just to help people decide how seriously to take the list in question.

Filed Under: Boston Globe, Dan Kennedy, NYT Co., newspaper woes, douglas mcintyre

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5 Comments

Anonymous said:

While I don't defend McIntyre here, or even think he is correct, he is making a more subtle point in twisting the valuation of the Globe.

McIntyre thinks that the current valuation of the Globe should be based only on what somebody might pay for it today if it were unloaded on the market. Yeah, sure, nobody would drop $200 million today on the newspaper because everyone's hoarding cash and nobody can get credit from a bank on favorable terms.

So McIntyre claims the Globe is worth next to nothing because it is an illiquid asset, not because the value of its various parts individually (or combined) is nearly worthless.

The irony is that he is probably like so many Wall Streeters who bemoan mark-to-market valuation -- yet he is all-to-happy to use mark-to-market valuation on the Globe when it helps him make his point.

March 11, 2009 4:04 PM
WhatIsCraigsList? said:

The firings have begun...supposedly 30 let go from Globe Classified Dept today

March 11, 2009 5:02 PM

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More on that grim Globe prediction

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WhatIsCraigsList? said:

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