Three Scenarios for a Last-Minute Iowa Democratic Surge

Two Scenarios For A Last-Minute Iowa GOP Surge

According to a New MSNBC Iowa Poll, Second Choicers Poised to Break for Edwards

2 Comments

• LorenzoJennifer said:

  Success in the Iowa caucuses depends on a candidate's supporters showing up at the correct caucus site at the right time.  When there, a candidate's supporters have to navigate complex voting procedures. In Iowa, they don't pull levers but gather in groups. John Edwards is the only "been there, done that" of the top 3 Democrats as he finished a respectable second to John Kerry in the '04 Iowa Caucuses.  Edwards is down-home comfy, very well-known and his domestic issues emphasis will likely produce a good harvest in the land of tall corn.  

  December 30, 2007 11:00 PM

• Luke Liberty said:

  John Edwards is more down home "hot" than comfy.  He has become a candidate of anger and confrontation and his approach, which would never work in practical governance, has been forged in the desperation of falling to third place in a state he has practically lived in for two years.    But I agree with Jennifer's analysis of the experience factor - that, coupled with the "second choice" factor for Biden, Richardson and Kucinich supporters, will likely put Edwards into first place.  That in turn will give McCain a big lift in NH, because independents will be less likely to turn out for the somewhat deflated Obama, whose momentum will grind down with an Iowa loss.  That in turn will diminish Romney in his fight against Guiliani.  In other words, the Edwards win that Jennifer predicts in Iowa may have national implications on the Repub side.  No matter how you slice it, it is fascinating.  And also, given the times, deadly serious.

  December 31, 2007 7:47 PM

Leave a Comment