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Update to Tote Board Column -- "Super Preview" -- Obama and McCain Surges May Change the Super Tuesday Outlook

    On Thursday, we filed our Super Tuesday Tote Board preview in the Phoenix. Since publication, here's how things have changed:

    REPUBLICANS

    McCain appears like he may salt away the nomination on Tuesday. Not only does he continue to hold his lead in the northeast but he appears to be doing very well in the South -- where there are five primaries -- and could win a majority of them.

    If that happens, all he really has to do is win one of the midwest-west three -- California, Missouri, and Illinois -- to be virtually unassailable. Right now, he appears poised to do that.

    DEMOCRATS

    Obama appears to be surging. On Thursday, we had Clinton leading in 11 of the primary states (with 4 of those leaning); Obama leading in four (with one leaning). Since publication, Delaware, Missouri, and New Jersey have moved into the leaning category as well -- meaning Clinton is being challenged by Obama strongly in 11 primary states of the 15  up for grabs on Tuesday. (Tennessee now appears to be secure for Clinton and Utah, according to one poll, looks good for Obama.)

    Equally significant, Obama appears to be doing well in the major caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota.

    The bottom line is that if Obama can win six primaries of the 15 held on Tuesday, he is in decent shape to challenge Clinton the rest of the way -- though it would help greatly if California were among them.

    Here's the current prognosis:

    CLINTON: Arizona (leaning), Arkansas, California (leaning), Delaware (leaning), Massachusetts (leaning), Missouri (leaning), New Jersey (leaning), New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee

   
OBAMA: Alabama (leaning), Connecticut (leaning), Georgia, Illinois, Utah (leaning)

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3 Comments

  • Boddie said:

    While the Obama folks our steady trying to knock Hillary done and the media is hard at it also, which I have been out for Hillary I only talked to one person that said they was voting for obama, Why is the media so down on her , I think the y know she can beat the republicans, and they will do any thing to stop her, on the other hand the Republicans will do any thing to any democrat that makes it to the white House, Which Hillary is a much smarter Lady then any one running , The Debate proved that

    February 3, 2008 6:32 PM
  • Boddie said:

    While the Obama folks our steady trying to knock Hillary done and the media is hard at it also, which I have been out for Hillary I only talked to one person that said they was voting for obama, Why is the media so down on her , I think the y know she can beat the republicans, and they will do any thing to stop her, on the other hand the Republicans will do any thing to any democrat that makes it to the white House, Which Hillary is a much smarter Lady then any one running , The Debate proved that,

    Also you keep saying Obama is surging I don't see it , But your latest little plot On her , was pretty desperate

    February 3, 2008 6:35 PM
  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    An interesting feature of this year's elections is that many voters seem to be making their choices within a day or so of their state's respective primary.  While this usually happens a lot, the number of races thus far decided with nearly "last minute" decision-making does seem higher than usual.  In some instances, the voters may not be concentrating on the race until election day approaches. In others, they may not see much differences among their party's candidates on the issues and base their vote more on whim, perhaps, than conviction. "Whims" may include late endorsements or their reaction to a candidate's personal characteristics.  The caucuses, though, require much more of a time-and-effort commitment than showing up at a polling place, getting your name checked off, pulling a lever and then quickly leaving.  Longer-term followers - not necessarily true believers - are more likely to be found at open caucus sites than inside voting booths.  

    February 3, 2008 7:03 PM

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