Guest Host Blogger Matthew Sawh: McCain Should Have Georgia on His Mind: Pollsters, Primaries Suggest Stealth Democratic Strength

Published Oct 21 2008, 08:25 AM by Steven Stark

Pollster turnout models are over-predicting John McCain's position in Georgia. A review of poll internals strongly suggests that these polls overstate Republican strength and, that they ignore aggregated primary season data. If past is prologue, women and, African-Americans will surpass current turnout projections.
Combining the Republican and Democratic primary data, a total of 1,984,701 Georgians voted in the nominating contests. Using a weighted average, the electorate was divided between men who accounted for 44% (876,901) while women represented 56% (1,107,797).

Should the general election electorate resemble the primary electorate, Polls suggesting a mid-single digit race may overstate McCain's current margin as they over-sample males. SurveyUSA shows that Georgia's men prefer McCain by a 16-point margin while women were evenly split.

For example, SurveyUSA's October 12th survey showing an 8-point margin had a 53 (f)-47 (m) split; Dailykos 10.14 poll showing a 6-point race was based on a sample which was 51(f)-49 (m) and Democracy Corps recent poll reflecting a 2-point poll shows a 53 (f)-47 race.

In 2004, 3,298,790 Georgians cast their votes and, in that year, women represented 55% of voters. Meanwhile, the 2008 primary turnout figures are based on turnout numbers which represent 60% of the 2004 total. In other words, it is a considerable baseline.
African-Americans are also being under-counted. In 2004, African-Americans accounted for 25% of the electorate. Using 2008 exit poll data, they represented 27.5% of the statewide primary electorate. The previously mentioned Democracy Corps and SurveyUSA poll predict an African-American turnout of 26%.
It is hard to believe that black turnout in the general election won't meet that of the primary. This contention is bolstered by recent statistics reported by the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Political Insider out of the State showing that 406,379 new voters registered between January 1st and September 30th. Most importantly, 164,859 (40.5%) of those new registrants are African-American and, blacks have so-far cast 40% of Georgia's early ballots.
Finally, pollsters over-estimated John McCain's tally in his primary.
The Pollster.Com Average showed the Republican primary ending
McCain 31.9%;
Mitt at 29.9%;
Huckabee at 26.9%

In reality, it ended
Huckabee 34% (+5.1%)
McCain 32%
Mitt 30%

A key question in these calculations is how energized will the born-again and, evangelicals voters be? They represented 63% of the GOP primary electorate and gave Huckabee 79% of his total statewide support . Has Sarah Palin won over as many evangelicals as Mike Huckabee? Even if she has, it may be insufficient to win.

Most tellingly, pollsters seriously undershot Obama's performance or, as others have noted, a reverse Bradley effect has taken hold. The Pollster.Com average showed:
Obama 51%
Clinton 37%
Edwards 12%

His primary results were much stronger:
Obama 67% (+16%)
Clinton 31% (-6%)

Adding Libertarian Bob Barr (who hails from Georgia) into the mix, it now looks probable that the Peach State will be blue on election night.

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