Watch Out -- The Race is Changing

Published Oct 29 2008, 10:39 AM by Steven Stark

The polls this morning are picking up a shift to John McCain -- the questions, of course, are how much, does it last, and whether, it's, in fact, accurate. All along we've predicted a last-week shift to the GOP -- as voters focused on their "fear of the unknown." But he still has a ways to go to catch-up.

We'll be previewing the race daily in the days before the election. Right now, what's happening is fairly typical -- it happened in 1976 with a last-week shift to Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter, in 1960 with a last-week shift to Richard Nixon over JFK, in 1968 with a last-week shift to Hubert Humphrey over Richard Nixon and in 2000, when the polls began to shift to Al Gore over George Bush. In two of those four cases, the non-incumbent won; in one he lost, and one ended up essentially tied.

The thing Obama supporters have to fear is whether some voters are still lying to pollsters about their intention to vote for McCain for fear of being called racist. With Gallup putting the lead at 2 and Rasmussen at 3, it's not over yet.

Obama's Lead in the Tracking Polls Holds Solid, as Does His Firewall in Virginia

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Watch Out -- The Race is Changing

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