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Yoon's Empty Pockets

I've got to think it's tough for a campaign strategist when someone like me calls up and starts the conversation with: "I'm looking at the finance report and wondering why I should take your candidate seriously at this point."

James Spencer gave me some A-plus spin, but the fact is that Sam Yoon raised just under $40,000 in June; he peaked with a $51k March and has declined since. He's raised less than a quarter-million dollars since announcing his candidacy (plus roughly $150k carried in), has been unable to spend any money to get on anyone's radar screen, and has less than $200,000 on hand with less than three months until the preliminary.

As Yoon was announcing back in February, I wrote that Yoon would need roughly $1.5 million to run an effective campaign: half for the bulk of it, and half for a sustained media presence in the final weeks. He's not going to be close.

Michael Flaherty, by comparison, just had his best fundraising month of the year, topping $100,000 for the first time. It's true that Flaherty has been burning through his money, but he's getting something for that investment -- and one of the things he's getting is the growing impression that he's in this thing and Yoon isn't. If that doesn't change by the end of the summer (and summer's a tough time to change anything in Boston politics), then the late anti-incumbent money, manpower and momentum will all flow to Flaherty.

Besides, Flaherty still has, by my accounting, more than twice the cash-on-hand that Yoon has.

Mind you, Yoon still has a path to victory in my opinion, which I summarized this way in that February article:

Yoon's savior, then, ironically, may be his City Council rival Flaherty, whose campaign strategy almost certainly includes plans for sustained, aggressive assaults on Menino. If effective, those attacks could leave voters looking for an alternative to both the attacker and his quarry — and finding Yoon standing above the fray, preaching his positive vision of the city's future. As one local operative says, it's politics 101: A attacks B, and C wins the election.

That's still a real possibility. But when I look at these anemic fundraising numbers, I find it hard to picture.

 

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14 Comments

  • Anna Oreck said:

    Funny - Yoon is the only one I see out on the street with an organization. Yoon has won before with less money than the insiders.

    July 1, 2009 5:51 PM
  • tumble4ya said:

    Some grad A spin yourself - "unable to spend" - ?  Of course any one could spend money right now.  

    What makes Sam smarter than the rest of the guys is he remembers that slow and steady will win the race.  Flaherty's always been the top fundraiser on city council yet Yoon and others like Felix Arroyo Sr. have been able to wage the campaigns needed to win.  We all know that's city council but it's the same size of jurisdiction - it's citywide in Boston.

    Yoon just has to have the $ to let his campaign smarts show.  And keeping his pockets filled and his campaign machine lean and mean right now will pay dividends in the end.  Campaigns really aren't that different than investing in the sense that there are good times to "buy" or spend and

    Sam's proven he knows what to do in his past campaigns.  By your math Gabrieli and others should have won their elections.  Yet he and others like him across the country, at all levels of government have been beat by people who had better organizations and knew how to run campaigns.  There's no difference here.  Sam's got it together and I think you'll start to see that in a couple of months.

    July 1, 2009 6:28 PM
  • belvi95 said:

    Looks to me that Sam Yoon has raised a lot of money this year - over $250k already. And seems that he is spending more wisely too. Not like Flaherty, who is just blowing through his money.  $160k in a month!! You think that his poll numbers have moved anywhere? Of course not.

    July 1, 2009 6:32 PM
  • Venkman said:

    Looks like Bernstein took the bait here! This post doesn't make much sense. I looked at the numbers  today too - and I see that Flaherty has only slightly raised more than Yoon this year - $350k to $250k. And why does it not say that Flaherty actually SPENT $160k in June - $50k more than he raised! Meanwhile Yoon banked $20k in his savings account. Yoon's finances don't look that bad to me.

    July 1, 2009 6:33 PM
  • NGkiwi said:

    Come on, Berstein. Don't fall for the bait. Sam Yoon is a good money manager - that's why I want him as Mayor.  Let's crunch some numbers here... in his 2005 campaign, Yoon spent about $221,00 and paid $5.27 per vote.  The top spender in that race was then-city council president Michael Flaherty, who spent about $480,000 and paid $9.75 per vote.  John Connolly, the son of the former secretary of state, who lost his bid for city council, spent about $333,000 and paid $10.55 per vote.  In 2007, Councilor Yoon again spent nearly 25% less than the top spender and comfortably retained his council seat.

    Money counts, but not as much as message. People who want to change Boston are going to vote for Sam Yoon.  He might not have more money than the other guys, but he'll have enough money to get his message out.

    July 1, 2009 6:34 PM
  • ff2005 said:

    This is another reason that we need campaign finance reform in the City. First the incumbent mayor gets the special interest money...then candidates like Flaherty who are willing to sell themselves out get a chunk of the change....while real progressive candidates like Sam Yoon keep collecting small dollar donations in the city. HOW a candidate raises his/her money is just as important as the amounts they are raising.

    July 1, 2009 6:36 PM
  • Jim Rice 4 Mayor said:

    What are these "anemic fundraising numbers" you're talking about? I remember reading that Flaherty only raised ten grand a month in January and February. Think that he may be reaching his cap after the last month or so? Flaherty's money is disappearing down a black hole.  

    July 1, 2009 6:47 PM
  • GSullivan said:

    Yoon has already matched his usual cycle fundraising total within the first six months. Flaherty has only been able to raise half of his usual cycle total. Clearly menino is undercutting flaherty funders and probably other parts of his organizations too. Whereas Yoon support will be untouchable by menino. He is clearly a better choice for those who are looking for change.

    July 1, 2009 6:49 PM
  • studentsttest said:

    Thanks for the heads-up Mr Bernstein! Every progressive needs to go to www.samyoon.com and contribute to his campaign to move Boston forward. Let's put our money where our mouth is - contribute what you can and set up a fundraising page, so your friends can give too!!

    July 1, 2009 7:08 PM
  • Boston Bertie said:

    Great idea Studentsttest - I just went online and contributed $25. Everyone - raise some money for a real progressive for mayor. Hit twenty of your friends up to give Sam $25 each. If just 100 of us do that - it's fifty large. Sam may not have the most money, but he's got the best message. And he will have enough to get that message out there.

    July 1, 2009 9:08 PM
  • DorchesterGuy said:

    I don't think its fair, in fact it's pretty lazy reporting, to base the outcome of an entire election on fundraising results at any point in the game. Many municipal elections across the country have been won by lesser spenders—although I admit this would be a tough one to do so.

    As for the Flaherty/Yoon competition, I think Flaherty's winning on message. Yoon needs a better one. Flaherty's Good, better campaign is catchy and serves as a base for a hundred hard hitting criticisms while remaining ultimately positive.

    If Yoon's so geared for change, why doesn't he present a positive image of himself instead of always harping about how screwed up everything is?  and I'm sorry to Yoon's campaign team if I missed the memo, but maybe you need to start thinking about branding/effective messaging. There's plenty of ways, these days, to get around the money thing. And I don't see you using them.

    July 1, 2009 9:40 PM
  • bostongal86 said:

    Maybe Yoon doesn't have money because he's trying to change the political system and the people that have power/money are afraid of that? I don't see him getting money from investors, unlike  Menino! And for Flaherty, he sure is spending money, but he still doesn't seem very different from Menino. Change is comprehensive and I don't think Flaherty's ready for that, I think his vision is to become the new Menino. In fact, he's been working for his law firm in Rhode Island for the past few years- maybe he should run for mayor of Providence!

    July 2, 2009 1:19 PM
  • don warner saklad said:

    How would you improve our Boston City Council communications?... Council Rule 12 and Rule 34 at www.cityofboston.gov/.../councilrules.asp both need to be updated. For example a) for people with hearing loss closed captioning on webcasts of public meetings, b) availability of stenographic machine records and c) better training and supervision of 100 or so Council staff with respect to FOI Freedom of Information public records, sunshine open public meetings, open government transparency. See also sunshineboston.blogspot.com

    July 3, 2009 9:30 AM
  • Jonathan said:

    Yoon has $150,000 in savings in CD's paying him good dividends!!! He transferred $100,000 in February.  He has WAY WAY WAY more money than Flaherty, but nowhere near Menino.

    P.s. What has Yoon done as a city councilor?

    July 14, 2009 5:05 AM

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