October 21, 2008
Pollster turnout models are over-predicting John McCain's position in Georgia. A review of poll internals strongly suggests that these polls overstate Republican strength and, that they ignore aggregated primary season data. If past is prologue, women and, African-Americans will surpass current turnout projections.
Combining the Republican and Democratic primary data, a total of 1,984,701 Georgians voted in the nominating contests. Using a weighted average, the electorate was divided between men who accounted for 44% (876,901) while women represented 56% (1,107,797).
Should the general election electorate resemble the primary electorate, Polls suggesting a mid-single digit race may overstate McCain's current margin as they over-sample males. SurveyUSA shows that Georgia's men prefer McCain by a 16-point margin while women were evenly split.
For example, SurveyUSA's October 12th survey showing an 8-point margin had a 53 (f)-47 (m) split; Dailykos 10.14 poll showing a 6-point race was based on a sample which was 51(f)-49 (m) and Democracy Corps recent poll reflecting a 2-point poll shows a 53 (f)-47 race.
In 2004, 3,298,790 Georgians cast their votes and, in that year, women represented 55% of voters. Meanwhile, the 2008 primary turnout figures are based on turnout numbers which represent 60% of the 2004 total. In other words, it is a considerable baseline.
African-Americans are also being under-counted. In 2004, African-Americans accounted for 25% of the electorate. Using 2008 exit poll data, they represented 27.5% of the statewide primary electorate. The previously mentioned Democracy Corps and SurveyUSA poll predict an African-American turnout of 26%.
It is hard to believe that black turnout in the general election won't meet that of the primary. This contention is bolstered by recent statistics reported by the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Political Insider out of the State showing that 406,379 new voters registered between January 1st and September 30th. Most importantly, 164,859 (40.5%) of those new registrants are African-American and, blacks have so-far cast 40% of Georgia's early ballots.
Finally, pollsters over-estimated John McCain's tally in his primary.
The Pollster.Com Average showed the Republican primary ending
McCain 31.9%;
Mitt at 29.9%;
Huckabee at 26.9%
In reality, it ended
Huckabee 34% (+5.1%)
McCain 32%
Mitt 30%
A key question in these calculations is how energized will the born-again and, evangelicals voters be? They represented 63% of the GOP primary electorate and gave Huckabee 79% of his total statewide support . Has Sarah Palin won over as many evangelicals as Mike Huckabee? Even if she has, it may be insufficient to win.
Most tellingly, pollsters seriously undershot Obama's performance or, as others have noted, a reverse Bradley effect has taken hold. The Pollster.Com average showed:
Obama 51%
Clinton 37%
Edwards 12%
His primary results were much stronger:
Obama 67% (+16%)
Clinton 31% (-6%)
Adding Libertarian Bob Barr (who hails from Georgia) into the mix, it now looks probable that the Peach State will be blue on election night.
October 16, 2008
The most compelling reason Obama should be president is that he can do for public and government service what Teach for America did for the cause of urban education. Bluntly: TFA made the cause of urban education cool.
Founder Wendy Kopp achieved this through a very-deliberate, high profile marketing scheme. She set up a recruitment apparatus at the top colleges and universities and went toe-to-toe with McKinsey, Bain and, the other usual suspects. Buzz was created as it was a prize. One could do well by joining TFA as well as doing well by having it on one's resume.
Cool is a very important cultural marker and, one which may matter more than reality itself. Thomas Frank (later author of What's the Matter with Kansas) posited a strong case in The Conquest of Cool that the zeitgeist of the 60's was engineered in advertising firms that propelled corporate America. One can see this thesis advanced in AMC's smash-television success, Mad Men.
Cool is the lubricant that runs American society. Cool reaches deep into the psyche and, reflects our psychological state. The two cardinal sins of American culture are to be thought un-cool or, even worse, old. Consequently, it often embodies [or encapsulates?] the ambitions or anxieties of Americans in their twenties.
Let's use the 1980's 'Greed is good' ethos to serve as an example of cool-in action. According to Daniel Brooks, 1980 marked the first time that college freshman thought being very well off was more important than developing a meaningful philosophy of life. Family Ties Alex P. Keaton (1982-1989) Trading Places (1983), Wall Street (1987) and, Working Girl (1988) were all extensions and variations on the idea that a (wo)man like those now-graduated college freshman just starting out in the world was ultimately made by going to battle with the financial market and, taming it before it tamed you . Cool (often, but not always) trickles up, into the cultural consciousness from youngest to oldest.
Just consider this sentence: If you have a social need, you're with Hillary. If you want Obama to be your imaginary, hip, black friend and you're young and you have no social needs, then he's cool. So said one unnamed Hillary Clinton advisor on January 10th to The Guardian. It is certainly untrue and unfair to criticize Obama as a man who coasted on cool, but, that advisor had his finger on our pulse (and America's).
As the Democratic Primary battle raged, millennials were the stealth force at work in shaping the contest. Yes, young turnout was up in Iowa helping to propel Obama to victory and, yes, the young were intrigued. These two minor points miss the major point.
In late January as Super Tuesday I loomed, Hillary Clinton was still the prohibitive favorite. The terrain shook as three prominent female Democratic politicians crossed Hillary Clinton. Why would they go against her? Because their children said so: Missouri's Claire McCaskill credits her 18-year old daughter as being the factor behind her decision to endorse Obama; Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius cited her older sons efforts. Most importantly, Doyenne Caroline Kennedy invoked her children as a pivotal force behind her Obama endorsement that resulted in massive Obama momentum.
What is it about Barack Obama that has Millennials crowing over his coolness?
First, We're noticed. Obama Addresses Our issues. In the third-debate Obama scored when he said: Recently (McCain's) key economic adviser was asked about why he didn't seem to have some specific programs to help young people go to college and the response was, well, you know, we can't give money to every interest group that comes along. I don't think America's youth are interest groups, I think they're our future. And this is an example of where we are going to have to prioritize.
Across three debates, Obama has mentioned college affordability and debt ten times and, he invoked the specter of young-people in national service once. By contrast, McCain mentioned the $10T debt on young people once during the second debate and, a rise in youth obesity during the third debate.
Character runs deeper than authenticity. It also speaks to temperament and worldview.
Second, Obama's Cool Temperament Mirrors Our Own: He may be more liberal on policy, but, his unflappable, quiet, calm demeanor strikes us as the authentic, real deal at a time when our culture is rampant with artifice. Harvard's Institute of Politics survey of 18-24 year-olds found that the second most cited reason to support Obama was his 'character'.
Meanwhile, this was not the 3rd, 4th or 5th, reason provided for supporting Clinton or McCain. McCain's commonly referenced period is the early seventies. For better or worse, Hillary learned thrifty, sharp lessons from her failures which do not dovetail with the millennial ethos
Internally, my generation has been shaped by careerist parents in that fatherly, latchkey way or, in cleaning up that debunked 'supermom' myth of third-wave feminism. We've seen more emotional dysfunction and divorce than any other generation.
Externally, the shocks accompanying September 11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have bolstered a strong generational preference in our careers for operating conservatively in our own lives through established channels (as noted by career-writer Penelope Trunk).
He May Not Feel Our Pain, But He Understands
We can relate to his biography. This is the most diverse generation. He was raised by a single-mother; he chose to establish himself through education and, he stuck to his principles choosing the public sector over the private sector.
The inexperience charge leveled at Obama on the campaign trail is often leveled at us in the workplace. We are skeptical of experience as a qualifier and, believe that the way one thinks and approaches problems is of greater importance.
This generation has a strong sense of pragmatism. The baby-boomers asked: Is this fair?
We wonder: Does this work? Obama has often held up his days as a community organizer as a bridge between the distance between the world as-it-is and the world as it ought-to-be.
If Obama listened to the DLC handwringers (or myself) in responding to calls that he be more like Bill Clinton, it is quite likely that such a gimmicky move would have triggered a backlash from this demographic.
Should the cool candidate win, expect many millennials to also redefine public service as cool.
October 14, 2008
This week's analysis.
October 14, 2008
There's a great new book of history out, "The Liberal Hour: Washington and the Politics of Change in the 1960's," by two professors at Colby College in Maine -- G. Calvin MacKenzie and Robert Weisbrot. The book was obviously written before the current campaign but its relevance is obvious. MacKenzie's and Weisbrot's compelling thesis is that what really drove the zeitgeist of the 60's wasn't the counterculture but Washington -- namely all the legislative change produced in a flurry by John Kennedy and mostly by Lyndon Johnson.
If they're right -- and it's worth reading the book because they make a compelling case -- then the Obama administration has a chance to create a new era in the nation, not only in politics but in the far more expansive domain of culture. Politics, these professors argue, is our society's most effective agent of change as the culture changes from the top down. Phoenix readers should check it out. As should, by the way, Barack himself.
October 08, 2008
John McCain cannot make an argument to save his life and he thinks like a senator. These attributes, combined with his age, make him the least impressive presidential debater in recent history. Barack Obama ran circles around him last night, making a GOP victory next month that much less likely.
October 06, 2008
The 2008 presidential election, while offering voters the clearest liberal vs. conservative choice since Carter-Reagan in 1980, may also be interpreted as a culture war. Sarah Palin's presence re-introduces the gender issue while adding on a small town vs. big city dynamic. Palin herself represents an internal gender conflict -- the outdoorsy "one-of-the-girls-who's-one-of-the-boys" vs. a more traditional notion of what women candidates should be like. The generational conflict between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the Democratic Party (so ably chronicled by Steven Stark early in the primaries), is now between the 72 years old John McCain and the 47 years old Barack Obama. Racial preferences are found in many Whites backing McCain mostly because of his racial heritage while many persons of color back Obama for the same reason. Pro-choice and pro-gay rights positions are represented by Obama while McCain is firmly against both. Religious righties, because of Palin, now firmly back McCain while Obama has his share of true believers, young idealistic voters who are understandably affected by Barack's lilting rhetoric and call to participate. McCain campaigns on experience while Obama downgrades the value of experience. Obama campaigns on inspiration while McCain seemingly ignores the value of inspiration. The federal bailout bill pits those who championed government intervention against those who either rejected the notion outright or bit the bullet in saying it was necessary even though they were otherwise opposed. We have an Ivy Leaguer (Barack - Columbia University, Harvard Law School) against a service academy grad (Johnny Mac - Annapolis). Additionally, one served with distinction in the armed forces (McCain) while the other did not so serve (Obama). While a few of these distinctive differences may be found in most political campaigns, it's their number and the demographic groups they represent that is surprising. Looks like either the Obama or McCain demographic support groups will surge over the other in gaining public favor, giving their candidate a clearly defined victory on Election Day, November 4.
October 02, 2008
No gaffes for Biden which is good news for Obama. But Palin was far better tonight than McCain was last Friday -- and more than passed tonight's test -- especially given the low expectations. She was trite at times, yes, but in a rather appealing, down to earth way. Tonight is unlikely to change the dynamics of the race since veep choices count for little. But any further furor about the Palin selection will now likely disappear.
September 30, 2008
All sorts of notions have been put forward as to why the bailout bill failed, with fingers pointed just about everywhere. But the real reason is a rather simple one. Under our constitutional scheme, Congress isn't designed to act that fast -- with the exception of a declaration of war. The idea that a Treasury Secretary could announce a crisis that no one can yet really see, come up with a plan that would largely give him enormous and unpreceented power to solve it, and that Congress would go along immediately was crazy. Our Founding Fathers envisioned a system where Congress would act deliberately, if at all. The remarkable thing wasn't that the bailout bill didn't pass; it's that it got 205 votes and almost did become law. That's not to say there isn't a real credit crunch that demands a solution. It's only that our system, for better or worse, isn't supposed to work in the way the proponents of this legislation wanted it to work. And, in fact, it didn't.
September 29, 2008
As long as the economy remains center focus, the McCain effort marches backwards. And the failure of the bill to pass does make one wonder how many arms he was able to twist while taking his celebrated break from the campaign.
The hunch here is that there will eventually be a bill. But probably not fast enough to rescue McCain, who now really needs a stalwart performance from Sarah Palin Thursday to begin to change the tide. Good luck!
September 26, 2008
Briefly, Barack Obama was composed and presidential throughout and
may have convinced some voters concerned about his inexperience that
he's prepared for the presidency. John McCain had a lackluster start --
when the topic was the economy -- but got better as the debate
progressed when the topics turned to foreign policy and he could argue
Obama was too naive and untested to be president. Interestingly, McCain
usually seemed animated only when he could discuss military policy,
though he had Obama on the defensive in the last 30 minutes on issues
such as Iran and Russia. To the extent there was a key difference
voters may remember, it will be each candidate's respective position on
Iraq, and McCain has to hope that the electorate agrees with him.
All
in all, there were few memorable moments and it's hard to see how this
debate changed much in the dynamic of the race. Which, given Obama's
current lead, is likely good news for his campaign.
September 26, 2008
The McCain campaign is in trouble. The economy's woes have hit his efforts badly -- as voters have simply revolted against anything that reminds them of the incumbent -- and his impulsive behavior over the past week, while it can be defended, could well raise the question in many voters' minds whether McCain even has the right temperament to be president. Simply put, in a crisis Barack Obama has been far more presidential.
What's just as bad is that Sarah Palin is doing him no favors on the stump -- so much so that conservative columnist Kathleen Parker today asked for her to resign for the good of the ticket.
So McCain must be more than the equal of Obama tonight to get his campaign back on track. Then Palin must do the same on Thursday. Otherwise, McCain is looking at a campaign that could well be lost with a month to go before Election Day.
September 26, 2008
How the candidates address one another. Michael Dukakis, in his 1988 debates with George H. W. Bush, almost always referred to the latter as "Mr. Vice President" while Bush referred to Dukakis only as "my opponent." Can't recall Bush addressing Dukakis by his name or his title as governor. Dukakis, while socially correct, inadvertently reminded the viewer of Bush having something of an exalted title. Bush intentionally belittled Dukakis as being virtually nameless.
Undue familiarity. Joe Biden is using Kathleen Sebelius as a stand-in for Sarah Palin during his debate prep. How will Joe's tone of voice, facial expressions and gestures toward Sarah come across to the viewer? Will he talk down to her as many maintained George H. W. Bush did to Geraldine Ferraro in their 1984 VP debate? Will he let fly a "You're likable enough, Hillary" -type comment as Barack Obama lobbed to Hillary Clinton during a debate? With Biden's tendency to meander, could be interesting. Mondale and Ferraro hardly touched one another throughout the 1984 campaign. If memory serves, at the conclusion, Walter hugged Geraldine.
Body language. Bush and Dukakis again. Bush appeared more animated and relaxed than Dukakis whose most animated gesture would be to extend his fingers in some sort of mini-hand chop.
Body language - hands. John F. Kennedy has retired the title as being the most effective hand chop user out there.
Podium height. John Kerry, at 6'4," was significantly taller than George W. Bush, height estimated at 5'9" or thereabouts. While Kerry looked fine at the podium height used for their first 2004 debate, Bush appeared dwarfed. The podium heights were adjusted for subsequent debates.
Helping out the other guy. Dukakis and Bush, again. As I recall, their first debate was held on September 7, 1988. Bush began his remarks by referencing Pearl Harbor Day (December 7). Dukakis politely corrected him about the date. Bush proceeded without acknowledging Dukakis. Can't recall whether Carter was so disposed to help Ford when, as noted in your column, he misidentified Poland's government.
So-o-o-o, we await the '08 debates. Provided, of course, that Johnny Mac has a note from Mr. Paulson that he can come out and play.
September 25, 2008
The answer, at least for now, appears to be yes, as the polls have begun to move back the other way. Maybe it's just the natural ebb and flow of public opinion. Maybe it's because a financial deal looks close and fear may be subsiding.
Or maybe McCain has impressed enough members of the public (say 1 in a 100) to move the polls back in his direction a little.
September 25, 2008
Right now, the polls are showing blow-out numbers for Barack Obama, with leads even in states such as North Carolina. If it holds up, he wins big. John McCain essentially has to change the dynamic of the race now -- both by hoping the economic situation settles down considerably over the next three weeks and through his debate performances.
If we could switch the odds in the paper as of today, we would, Obama is the current favorite.
September 24, 2008
Last week's financial fright-fest has forced the punditocracy to realize and to discuss what most Americans have felt for a long time. Long before these past two weeks, Gallup did a poll about the differing perceptions of the economy sorted by state. Daniel Brook's (highly-recommended) book The Trap: Selling Out to Stay Afloat in Winner-Take All America details the coarsening of our culture through economics in painful, frustrating, and furious detail. In particular, a striking quote comes from Margaret Thatcher. She said, 'economics are the method; the object is to change the soul. ‘ Although she meant it very differently, we need to cleanse our souls.
Many Americans have come to resent the moral poverty borne out of the unbalanced job market. These choices have come out of the vast economic changes of the past generation. Some, like globalization were quite unstoppable. Others like off-shoring for shareholders and refund checks were the crudest examples of our cultural excess. I have no problem with tax cuts, I have a problem with the federal government passing the buck (or six-hundred) to shrug its shoulders and proclaim impotence.
We have a real public-sector crisis, in so many words (and as Brook demonstrates). Public-sector professional salaries of teachers (for example) have declined relative to those of lawyers and investment bankers (who perform a necessary, important and valuable function). Obama's discussion of Main Street regarding foreclosures is nice. McCain's comments about Chairman Cox are troubling. But both are missing the real, existential point of this crisis and, the corresponding opportunity to lead.
John Edwards embodies the trouble with leading. First, he was a phony. As a Senator, he opposed nearly everything he later supported as a presidential candidate. This most centrist of the DLC Senate Democrats prioritized posture over policy.
Yet, some of his hollowness serves as an apt metaphor for the defects of our politics. In order to have the money to have a platform to push for populism, Edwards needed the clout and connections from being a trial lawyer. Once he tried to be a populist, critics pointed to this difference between his rhetoric and his biography. One must do well before doing good these days (a point made by Brook). To his credit, the economic populism debate he invited the elites to join also helped pave the way for GOP populist Mike Huckabee in and beyond Iowa.
Both candidates of economic populism have failed in this cycle. What does this mean for Obama and McCain?
There is a real opening for a very important debate about American identity in this economy: What do we as society want to promote? We may have separation of church and state, but, even now, in this jaundiced and jaded age, politicians are still our high priests.
We desperately need to talk about American values and,where we are going to invest as a society.
We need to discuss how people can harness their specialized talents towards a public or non-profit good. We need to discuss how people can better connect their faith to their everyday lives. We need to discuss how folks feel when they have to take jobs they hate or, don't believe in, to get by.
McCain wants to talk about patriotism? Where is the US Public Service Academy? Obama wants to talk about Main Street? Where is his plan for the people who have been gutted by this economy? What about the people who have lost their guaranteed pension plan and, didn't know about 401k plans?
The Mainstream Media is reading the symptoms well, but, they are failing to diagnose the real issue at play: the spiritual crisis which underwrote and underlined the financial crisis.
The Bush Years have been marked by a set of values crises: What does it mean to be an American after 9/11?; what marks a patriot?; what defines 'success,' be it in terms of a career or, in Iraq; How to be a mother and a career woman?
Many of these questions are not new, but they require new solutions. What brackets these crises together is that at no point in the past seven years did President Bush succeed in narrowing the dividing line between left and right on these issues. That is where all Americans wanted him to most succeed and where he failed most miserably. It is where the next president needs to begin.
Most important, though, the balance between corporate profits and corporate responsibility is a defining issue --just like the difference in compensation between the public and private sectors.
We never resolved this after the 2002 Enron debacle. Six years later, Wall Street has been caught again. We need to have a serious conversation including all ideological viewpoints and constituents to try to come to some sort of redefining and restructuring of America's capitalist economy. Sure, iit will be about how to fit manufacturing sector employees elsewhere, but, it also needs to be about so much more than that.
We need a worker's bill of rights. We need a set of corporate duties and obligations which are not just legal, but, ethically-minded. We need a shift from 'this won't be punished' to, 'this will be positively encouraged.” I applaud the corporate social responsibility leaders on this front.
We need to better value the public sector vis-à-vis the private sector. We need the private sector to better reward ethical and managerial excellence over sheer performance.
The media is busy dramatizing the crisis but n so doing, it misses the crucial point. Our economy is demonstrating (now for white-collar workers) the limits of Reaganomic capitalism. (The drawbacks for blue-collar workers were long since shown.)
As evidenced by numerous polls, the American people are spiritually and materially frustrated with its rigidity as well.
We need this message to be received by the presidential campaigns. Then, we will see who is listening to us, even if they are not leading us.