Fred Thompson
Why he might run: A former Tennessee senator and current actor and radio commentator, Thompson is the latest darling of the New Right, which has persuaded him to take a look at the race. He’s a great communicator and a compelling character — hardly surprising given his considerable experience in Hollywood.
Prediction: Thompson is often compared to Reagan because both were actors. But there’s one considerable difference. Reagan was a leading spokesman for conservative causes for years before he ran for president. In contrast, Thompson is known as a very decent guy who never really exerted much of a leadership role in Congress. Plus, he’s McCain’s friend. For those reasons, it’s unlikely he’ll change his stripes now and decide to seek the highest office. But the pressure is heavy.
If he gets into the race: It becomes a three-and-a-half-way race, with Romney behind the leaders and McCain suffering the most. Romney survives, but ironically only because another major candidate’s presence in the race further splits the vote in New Hampshire, making it likelier that Romney will win the primary he needs to win.
Newt Gingrich
Why he might run: Gingrich is different from the three above. Everyone knows he’d like to run, but he knows he has the highest negatives of almost anyone in contemporary politics. So he’s spending these months trying to reinvent himself and confessing all his faults (like his affair during the Clinton impeachment process), in the hopes he’ll create a movement for himself.
Prediction: The guess here is that he gets in the race sometime over the summer, in response to the pleas of conservative leaders (or so he’ll say). But only if Fred Thompson doesn’t.
If he gets into the race: He’ll immediately jump into a very respectable third in the polls behind Giuliani and McCain. The guess here is that a Gingrich candidacy hurts McCain the most and helps all the Democrats, because let’s face it: Gingrich is even more disliked throughout the nation than Hillary is.
DEMOCRATS
Al Gore
Why he might run: He’s a world hero, the man who made global warming an international issue. He’s also better qualified to be president than anyone in the race — he has actually run before and won, a Supreme Court decision to the contrary notwithstanding.
Prediction: Gore is happier and doing more good now than he could as a candidate. Besides, does he really want to take on Obama, Hillary, and Edwards? Despite the entreaties from his supporters, he’ll sit it out. But who knows? Maybe the convention will deadlock.
Tote Board tip of the week
This year’s GOP field is the first in modern political history to feature two front-runners who used the patented “comb-over” to cover up their baldness earlier in their careers! By the way, since 1960 and the real dawn of the TV age, America has never had a bald president elected initially to the office on his own.
Best heads of hair in race
Obama, Hillary, Edwards, Richardson (the Democratic front-runners — now we know why!).
Worst heads of hair in race
Giuliani, McCain, Biden (still hard to watch without thinking about “Hair Club for Men” ads).
On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board blog: http://www.thephoenix.com/toteboard
