The problem for McCain now is that the Perot movement no longer exists. It began to fall apart as the country became more partisan, beginning with the Clinton impeachment. The results in 2000 — when Ralph Nader’s candidacy cost Al Gore the presidency — only increased the sentiment that a vote for an independent-thinking candidate was a wasted ballot.
By polarizing the country, the Iraq War has also decreased demand for a third party, non-political figure, especially one who comes out of a military tradition. As a result, the same John McCain who was so popular in 2000 (though again, not so much with Republicans), isn’t nearly as admired today. In fact, in a country that now prizes party purity, “independent” politicians who bridge the gap between the two parties — Joe Lieberman comes to mind — are among the most disliked figures on the Washington scene.
Sadly for McCain, there isn’t much he can do to remedy the situation. He appears to be no more acceptable to conservatives in his party than he was in 2000. This time around, independents are as likely to vote in the Democratic race as they are in the Republican one. And, even if the third-party route were to open up again in 2008, figures such as New York mayor Michael Bloomberg would make far more credible independent candidates.
To be sure, McCain isn’t finished because Giuliani could stumble. But it is hard to see how the former soldier will get himself out of this quandary.
“Non-issue” of the week: The press was preoccupied this week with the candidates’ fundraising efforts for the quarter that just ended. But it was much ado about virtually nothing. As noted in the “Tote Board” blog a few days ago, the press likes to cover fundraising because it’s an easy story to report; you get to hang around rich people, and it involves numbers — which allow reporters to compare candidates easily. But it’s still very early, fundraising is only one measure of success, and all the major candidates did well enough to allow their campaigns to proceed comfortably. In the end, elections are about numbers, but the numbers that count aren’t dollars; they’re votes.
THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
RUDY GIULIANI Odds for nomination: 6-7
JOHN MCCAIN Odds: 2-1
MITT ROMNEY Odds: 11-1
TOMMY THOMPSON Odds: 50-1.
SAM BROWNBACK Odds: 50-1
MIKE HUCKABEE Odds: 100-1
JAMES GILMORE Odds: 1000-1
DUNCAN HUNTER Odds: 1000-1
TOM TANCREDO Odds: 5000-1
RON PAUL Odds: 10,000-1
Note: these are the odds based on the current field. Should another candidate enter the GOP race — which is likely — the odds will shift dramatically.
DEMOCRATS
BARACK OBAMA Odds: 3-2
HILLARY CLINTON Odds: 7-4
JOHN EDWARDS Odds: 5-1
BILL RICHARDSON Odds: 55-1
CHRIS DODD Odds: 60-1
JOE BIDEN Odds: 70-1
DENNIS KUCINICH Odds: 25,000-1
MIKE GRAVEL Odds: 1 million to 1
On the Web
The Tote Board blog: http://www.thephoenix.com/toteboard
