Ranking the Republicans
RUDY GIULIANI Apparently he has more cash on hand than any other Republican in the race. And a Gingrich entry wouldn’t hurt his candidacy very much because the former Speaker appeals to a different wing of the party than does Giuliani. There’s even a way that a Gingrich candidacy might help Giuliani, by making it easier for the former NY mayor to run against a candidate whose intellect matches his own. And, if the race is reduced to Giuliani and Gingrich, Giuliani has the advantage of looking comparatively more electable.
NEWT GINGRICH Newt has the grass roots wired — both literally and figuratively. He also knows how to play the media better than anyone in the field. Money likely wouldn’t be a problem.
MITT ROMNEY To the extent that Romney’s candidacy is all about winning Iowa and New Hampshire and then hoping the momentum carries him through, Gingrich helps Romney, at first by further dividing the opposition to his front-runner status in those first two states. Still, with Gingrich in debates, will Romney look more like the weathervane his opponents think he is? Romney continues to fundraise well, but the fact that he’s already loaning his campaign millions out of his personal funds shows that he’s burning the money faster than he can raise it. Not a good sign.
FRED THOMPSON A Gingrich entry hurts Thompson the most since it is an implicit indicator — at least to Newt devotees and in the talk-radio universe — that Fred can’t cut it. Besides, it makes the former Tennessee senator look like an old face, before he even had a chance to enjoy his status as the new face. He wasn’t an official candidate in the second quarter, so no one knows his fundraising prowess. The guess is that he’ll do well among establishment Republicans — which will only fuel the Gingrich insurgency.
JOHN MCCAIN He’s virtually broke and laying off staff. His only chance is to pour everything into Iowa and hope that, in a highly divided field, he can win the caucus with 20 to 25 percent. Still, with Gingrich in the race, will he just be eclipsed for good?
Gingrich’s presence in the race will give the GOP five major contenders, thus reducing the rest of the field to complete irrelevancy (from its former status of almost complete irrelevancy).
THE REST OF THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
RUDY GIULIANI Odds: 2-1
NEWT GINGRICH Odds: 3-1
MITT ROMNEY Odds: 5-1
FRED THOMPSON Odds: 6-1
JOHN MCCAIN Odds: 9-1
MIKE HUCKABEE Odds: 300-1
SAM BROWNBACK Odds: 1000-1
TOMMY THOMPSON Odds: 20,000-1
DUNCAN HUNTER Odds: 20,000-1
JAMES GILMORE Odds: 40,000-1
TOM TANCREDO Odds: 75,000-1
RON PAUL Odds: 500,000-1
DEMOCRATS
BARACK OBAMA Odds: 4-3
HILLARY CLINTON Odds: 3-2
JOHN EDWARDS Odds: 7-1
BILL RICHARDSON Odds: 40-1
JOE BIDEN Odds: 65-1
CHRIS DODD Odds: 150-1
DENNIS KUCINICH Odds: 25,000-1
MIKE GRAVEL Odds: 1 million to 1
