Could Obama do better? He clearly doesn’t have Clinton’s high negatives — a good sign — but he doesn’t exactly have a wealth of experience, either. And in an age of terrorism, that could count in November. True, voters in 1960, during the height of the Cold War, were willing to entrust the presidency to a young JFK. But he had been on the national scene much longer than Obama, and Kennedy hardly won by a landslide in a country that, at the time, was more strongly Democratic.
Moreover, Obama’s appeal in the Red States, while stronger than Clinton’s, probably wouldn’t be decisive. Obama could get to 270 votes, but, like Clinton, would have to use a “max out” Blue State strategy to do so. Still, he’s a far less divisive figure, so his general election chances would be better than Clinton’s.
By contrast, if Edwards could emerge from his present difficulties and win the nomination, he would likely mirror Giuliani’s election strategy. Edwards would try to hold the Democratic base, win some of the swing states, and pick off a few Southern border states — such as Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee — that traditionally go Republican. It’s worth noting that the only Democrats to win the presidency since 1964, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, were — like Edwards — both Southerners who ran similar electoral college campaigns.
The goal for Edwards, then, is to persuade enough Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire to vote with their heads and not their hearts when the nomination process begins in January. This is precisely what happened in 2004, when there was a late surge in Iowa away from Howard Dean to Edwards and John Kerry, based on the theory that those two eventual nominees represented the party’s best chance for success. If anything, the desire to win is even stronger this year. It’s a long shot, but Edwards must press the electability argument. Right now, it may be all he has left.
Racing notes
Edwards’s decision to accept public funding is a blow to his campaign, indicating a fundamental weakness in his ability to run a full-scale national effort. Clinton and Obama — the two candidates who will be left standing if Edwards stumbles early and the race narrows — are the beneficiaries. On the GOP side, Newt Gingrich announces he won’t be a candidate.
THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
RUDY GIULIANI
Odds: 4-3 | past week: 3-2
MITT ROMNEY
Odds: 4-1 | same
FRED THOMPSON
Odds: 4-1 | 5-1
JOHN McCAIN
Odds: 6-1 | same
MIKE HUCKABEE
Odds: 30-1 | 45-1
SAM BROWNBACK
Odds: 1000-1 | same
DUNCAN HUNTER
Odds: 200,000-1 | same
RON PAUL
Odds: 200,000-1 | same
TOM TANCREDO
Odds: 250,000-1 | same
ALAN KEYES
Odds: 3 million to 1 | same
NEWT GINGRICH
Odds: will not be a candidate | 10-1
DEMOCRATS
HILLARY CLINTON
Odds: 6-5 | past week: 5-4
BARACK OBAMA
Odds: 5-4 | 3-2
JOHN EDWARDS
Odds: 10-1 | 6-1
BILL RICHARDSON
Odds: 100-1 | same
JOE BIDEN
Odds: 200-1 | same
CHRIS DODD
Odds: 250-1 | same
DENNIS KUCINICH
Odds: 100,000-1 | same
MIKE GRAVEL
Odds: 8 million to 1 | same
On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board blog: http://www.thephoenix.com/toteboard
