The outlook for 2008
It’s telling that some observers put their hope for changing the General Assembly’s composition mostly in external events, like the federal corruption probe or a possible looming meltdown of the finances of state government.
During a recent appearance on Buddy Cianci’s WPRO-AM talk-show, University of Rhode Island economics professor Leonard Lardaro, for example, pointed to Rhode Island’s worsening economic outlook in predicting that a “voter revolution” will transform the legislature next year.
Republican Steve Laffey, the former mayor of Cranston, has cited the same problem in pointing to his fiscal know-how, thereby crafting an early narrative for a likely gubernatorial campaign in 2010.
Who knows? Perhaps 2008 will mark a turning point for the Rhode Island Republican Party.
It seems just as likely, though, that the party could continue to be constrained by its divisions and limitations, including a sorely underdeveloped bench.
Scott Avedisian, the Republican mayor of Warwick, seems moderate enough to successfully run statewide, although some observers, for example, think he would opt out if Laffey gets in for 2010, because of a belief that Laffey would beat him in a GOP primary. And while Laffey can’t be dismissed, he could conceivably prove too conservative to win a gubernatorial race in Rhode Island.
When it comes to running Republican legislative candidates in 2008, GOP chairman Giovanni Cicione says the party, after having built its organizational capacity, is moving forward into policy development and message development. “We want to be on our game, so that we continuously and repeatedly point out the differences between the legislation and the policies that the Democratic supermajority forces through every year,” he says, “and the choices that Republicans believe would be better options for the state of Rhode Island.”
Cicione says the next part of the GOP’s strategy will be the recruitment of candidates. “I have no idea what number we’re going to field,” he says, although he points to Republican Jim Davey’s 2004 upset of Representative Frank Montanaro Jr., the son of one of the state’s top labor leaders, in adding, “We’re not going to be scared away by anybody. We can’t write off any election — I don’t care if it’s the speaker.”
Like Lardaro, Cicione points to anecdotal evidence in perceiving a potential movement for change in the legislature. “I think there’s a real concern throughout the electorate, real concern, about the imbalance in the General Assembly and the cost to the state, not just financially,” but in the delivery of social services and other areas, he says.
Yet a big part of the challenge facing Rhode Island Republicans can be seen in their chairman’s initial response to a question about the 2010 gubernatorial race: “I don’t spend a whole lot of time thinking about 2010,” Cicione says, “because my term only goes through 2009.”
Ian Donnis can be reached at idonnis@phx.com. Read his politics + media blog at thephoenix.com/notfornothing.
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