Moving target
Carter’s campaign experience 32 years ago may also provide Huckabee a template for what lies ahead. For the first few months after he rose to prominence in 1976, the new face could do no wrong, racking up primary wins everywhere. But as the primary campaign progressed, the new face became the old face, and voters began to turn to even newer figures, such as Jerry Brown. In the Internet age, that process will be accelerated even further, meaning Huckabee’s peaks and troughs could be separated by a matter of days, and even hours, rather than weeks or months.
Once nominated, of course, the same uneven progression occurred again. Carter left his 1976 convention with a lead in some polls greater than 30 points. By Election Day, it was down to one.
What made the Carter campaign particularly tortuous was that, by and large, the establishment — one that included his own party, by the way — couldn’t stand him. (Outsiders, after all, aren’t its thing.) But being anti-establishment also strengthened Carter’s core constituency of outsiders — as it will likely strengthen Huckabee’s as the going gets rough and as he surely commits a series of so-called gaffes, which the press and his opponents will bring up endlessly in an attempt to bring him down.
Could the Carter phenomenon ever happen again? Two months ago, the answer would have been “No” — 1976 was unique. Today, Huckabee is still a long shot, but such a negative judgment looks a tad premature.
THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
RUDY GIULIANI
Odds: 2-1 | past week: same
MIKE HUCKABEE
Odds: 4-1 | 5-1
MITT ROMNEY
Odds: 5-1 | 4-1
JOHN McCAIN
Odds: 5-1 | same
FRED THOMPSON
Odds: 9-1 | same
RON PAUL
Odds: 150-1 | 100-1
DUNCAN HUNTER
Odds: 200,000-1 | same
TOM TANCREDO
Odds: 250,000-1 | same
ALAN KEYES
Odds: 3 million-1 | same
DEMOCRATS
HILLARY CLINTON
Odds: 4-5| past week: 1-2
BARACK OBAMA
Odds: 2-1 | 4-1
JOHN EDWARDS
Odds: 9-1 | same
JOE BIDEN
Odds: 100-1 | same
CHRIS DODD
Odds: 200-1 | same
BILL RICHARDSON
Odds: 200-1 | same
DENNIS KUCINICH
Odds: 100,000-1 | same
MIKE GRAVEL
Odds: 16 million-1 | same
On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board blog: http://www.thephoenix.com/toteboard
