Stark Ravings

Dead heat

By STEVEN STARK | May 14, 2008

Alabama 9, to McCain
Arkansas 6, to McCain
Florida 27, to McCain
Georgia 15, to McCain
Kentucky 8, to McCain
Louisiana 9, to McCain
Mississippi 6, to McCain
North Carolina 15, to McCain
South Carolina 8, to McCain
Tennessee 11, to McCain
Texas 34, to McCain
Virginia 13, to McCain

MIDWEST
CURRENT READING: Obama 58; McCain 42

This is the nation’s most competitive region. We narrowly give Ohio and Missouri to McCain, but Obama could win them with the right kind of campaign and/or veep choice (say, Ted Strickland of Ohio). On the other hand, Wisconsin could be fertile ground for McCain, and racially polarized Michigan isn’t out of his reach, either. As the Midwest goes, likely so goes the nation.

Illinois 21, to Obama
Indiana 11, to McCain
Michigan 17, to Obama
Minnesota 10, to Obama
Missouri 11, to McCain
Ohio 20, to McCain
Wisconsin 10, to Obama

PLAINS
CURRENT READING: Obama 7; McCain 24

This part of the country is usually not Democrat-friendly, but Iowa — the state that launched Obama — still looks good for him, for now. He could even win an electoral vote or two in Nebraska, the other state that splits its electoral votes.

Iowa 7, to Obama
Kansas 6, to McCain
Nebraska 5, to McCain
North Dakota 3, to McCain
Oklahoma 7, to McCain
South Dakota 3, to McCain

WEST
CURRENT READING: Obama 91; McCain 33

Changing demography and the Latino vote will determine if Obama can pull off any surprises in the West, where, in recent times, the Dems have tended to do well on the coast and in Hawaii but nowhere else. Specifically, he has a decent shot at winning Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada (we give him all but the last), and even Montana could conceivably be in play. On the other hand, McCain has a regional affinity with these tough-to-call states and could win Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana. Should the race begin to get away from Obama nationally, McCain could also take California.

Alaska 3, to McCain
Arizona 10, to McCain
California 55, to Obama
Colorado 9, to Obama
Hawaii 4, to Obama
Idaho 4, to McCain
Montana 3, to McCain
Nevada 5, to McCain
New Mexico 5, to Obama
Oregon 7, to Obama
Utah 5, to McCain
Washington 11, to Obama
Wyoming 3, to McCain

ODDS
BARACK OBAMA VS. JOHN McCAIN
Odds: even

On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board: http://www.thephoenix.com/toteboard

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Related: Going both ways, Leggo my ego!, Power talk, More

Topics: Stark Ravings , Barack Obama, Elections and Voting, Politics, More

Comments

Dead heat

A political junkie's wet dream. Wouldn't that be a kick? Adding to the fun is that Obama could win the 1st or 2nd congressional district in Nebraska (he leads in SurveyUSA polling) and pick up one more electoral vote to win it.

By wtucker on 05/15/2008 at 1:50:31

Dead heat

Obama has had an easy ride, compared to other gifted people. You might say this has spoiled him and made him less equipped to challenge the more garden-variety candidates Clinton and McCain. Or you could do an about-face and champion this new twist of fate, where an intellectual actually gets a break and the pursuit of excellence is respected on its own merits. He has gotten where he is because enough people recognize that he is brilliant and unflappable. More to the point, his whole campaign has focused on bringing out the best of his supporters, bringing, in other words, their own excellence to the fore. Obama can run a country. Bush can't and couldn't. He may be able to shoot a tin can off the railing of his porch--like so many of the people who voted for him; and McCain probably could too. But this is not excellence, this is the common denominator of the docile and slavish. This is what has to be done away with, and this is what we have a chance to do away with, if we work with our candidate with the best means of persuasion and righteous indignation at our disposal. It is this that will determine the electoral map come November.

By gordon on 05/16/2008 at 9:28:40

Dead heat

Steven - This is a great column. You're way out ahead of the curve, as usual, in forecasting an Obama-McCain race state-by-state. Of course, lots will change between now and November 4th. My fondest hope is that McCain and Obama run an above-board, issues-oriented campaign. They present a stark (no pun intended) choice to the American people and, perhaps as never before, the American people need to begin to make some important decisions about the challenges facing us. It should be a fascinating Presidential race.

By Vic in Chicago on 05/16/2008 at 10:57:49

Dead heat

It may take the good cop/bad cop team of Barack and Hillary to shake McCain down ultimately. In fact, the very threat of the Clinton on the ticket may keep McCain playing a straight game of poker. In that case we may have an above-board campaign after all.

By gordon on 05/16/2008 at 1:06:10

Dead heat

Losing candidates giving endorsements and support to their party's presidential nominees may have little effect on the national level. They could, however, prove instrumental at the local level and among specific groups. Bill Richardson, a Mexican-American-born Southwesterner fully fluent in Spanish and French, could easily be featured on Spanish-language TV ads in an effort to persuade pro-Clinton Latino voters to back Barack. Not for nothing did Obama bring out John Edwards' endorsement after he got thumped in West Virginny. Edwards could be called on to rally union workers from mature industries as has been shown in the Steelworkers already switching their support from Edwards to Obama. Additionally, Edwards - - currently Director of the Center on Poverty, Work and Opportunity at the U. of North Carolina - - is already reviving his "two Americas" rhetoric in an attempt to get Obama more votes from white working class voters. On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee -- whose name still appears on many primary ballots despite their party's contest being over -- may prove a vital link for McCain amongst Christian conservatives. As the campaigns advance into autumn, we can probably expect more and more endorsements and appearances targeted, televised and e-mailed toward specific voting groups. While trash-and-bash divide-and-conquer tactics are regrettably sure to come, unite-and-conquer tactics may prove to be a winning counter-balance.

By L-J on 05/18/2008 at 9:51:23

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