First, it’s much harder to choreograph a speech in a stadium. Acoustics are more difficult to control, as are the spectators. Equally important, a nominee needs to bear in mind that his real audience is not the people sitting before him (who are, in essence, only extras in the production), but the millions watching on TV. That will be much harder for Obama to remember in front of a huge crowd, where the dynamics will pull him in the opposite direction.
Second, a large campaign rally in a ballpark full of adoring supporters may not actually be the best way to re-introduce Obama to the nation. Sure, those “Yes we can” events of the primaries conveyed a lot of enthusiasm. But it was always an open question whether they preached more to the choir than to the masses. Having 75,000 supporters screaming their heads off with Obama bellowing back could well scare off a more traditional and independent general electorate.
As Marshall McLuhan never failed to remind us, television is still a cool medium. Obama’s model may be Martin Luther King Jr., and their rhetorical styles are vaguely similar. But remember that King’s moving “I Have a Dream” speech (Obama’s acceptance speech falls on the 45th anniversary of King’s timeless moment, as he’ll undoubtedly remind us) was delivered in the early days of TV, when rhetorical styles were different. It would not translate to the small screen nearly as well today, especially as a political event.
Remember, too, that, unlike other years when weeks separated the two big shows, the GOP convention will commence a mere four days after the Democratic convention wraps up, forming one long political mini-series. The assumption all along has been that the superior speaker and media phenom would produce the best convention, and thus an electoral advantage. But McCain has a more united party, the better to package his message. And, by going second, he can respond quickly to what happened the week before. These circumstances pose such a daunting challenge for Obama that, if he can go into the fall campaign simply not having lost ground during the conventions, he should consider himself lucky.
ODDS
JOHN MCCAIN
Odds: 6-7 | this past week: same
BARACK OBAMA
Odds: 7-6 | this past week: same
