Fear factors
Plus, consider the polls. Obama currently has a narrow lead, but in 1976 and 1988, Jimmy Carter and Michael Dukakis had much larger ones, only to see them diminish (or disappear) as November approached and voters weighed their fear of the unknown against their fear of the known. Even in 2004, right before the conventions, John Kerry had a small lead over George Bush. As for the comparisons of McCain to Bob Dole in 1996, they’re inapposite: by mid summer, Dole already trailed Bill Clinton by double digits — hardly the position McCain is in now.
Remember, too, that, in the primaries, Obama tended to run a little behind what the pre-election polls predicted. If that pattern continues into the fall, he’ll need to lead McCain by about three to four points to be assured of prevailing on Election Day.
Sure, Obama is garnering all the favorable attention now. But McCain will have a number of opportunities — with the selection of his vice-presidential choice, his convention, the debates, and the fall campaign itself — to alter perceptions of both himself and Obama. This is an extremely fluid campaign and both sides have yet to play their hand. Let’s see what happens when all the cards are on the table.
To read the “Presidential Tote Board” blog, go to thePhoenix.com/blog/toteboard. Steven Stark can be reached at sds@starkwriting.com.
Related:
Ridge to the future, Eyes on the (yawn) prize, Going both ways, More 
- Ridge to the future
With the Republican nomination officially settled, the speculation about John McCain’s choice of a running mate has already begun.
- Eyes on the (yawn) prize
A remarkable thing has happened: neither John McCain nor Barack Obama has done virtually anything to bolster his candidacy.
- Going both ways
Right now John McCain is doing better than he and the Republicans deserve.
- Feeling Minnesota
The overall success of the event will largely come down to one question: how effective and memorable will Barack Obama’s acceptance speech prove to be?
- Breaking the press
The narrative of this campaign was supposed to be how a triumphant Obama rode discontent against the Bush administration to an overwhelming victory.
- Long national nightmare
Last night, I woke up in a sweat. I’d had a very bizarre dream.
- Dead heat
With a bit less than six months to go until Election Day, both parties now know their nominees with certainty.
- Giant step
Two weeks ago we noted that, in spite of all the press hype promoting Barack Obama, the Democrats were only two steps away from chaos in their nomination process.
- Power talk
Two upcoming debates will likely address environmental topics and how they impact jobs, climate change, and our national priorities.
- Sarah, get your AK-47
Ever since John McCain selected Sarah Palin to be his running mate, she has been the focus of the campaign.
- Leggo my ego!
If Barack Obama loses the presidency this November, it won’t be because of Reverend Jeremiah Wright, or “Bitter-gate,” or sundry other vulnerabilities.
- Less
Topics:
Stark Ravings
, Michael Dukakis, Barack Obama, Elections and Voting, More
, Michael Dukakis, Barack Obama, Elections and Voting, Politics, George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, John McCain, U.S. Republican Party, Bill Clinton, Less
