But McCain won mostly because Republicans almost always avoid upstarts and gravitate to the front-running figure in their party — an inclination that, for the most part, has served them well in the past. Moreover and predictably, the experience McCain had obtained running in 2000 served him well. He had the guts to skip Iowa (maybe Clinton should have done the same) and he didn’t panic when his campaign went through rough stretches. He also “gamed” the process better than anyone else, understanding that, if Rudy Giuliani’s candidacy didn’t take off, the former New York mayor’s support would go to McCain — as it did on Super Tuesday, giving McCain a lead in delegates that proved decisive.
Given all this, Democrats have reason to be concerned — even if, at the moment, their confidence has been bolstered by the mostly glowing press coverage their nominee has received. History shows that the Democrats are up against an experienced, steady Republican candidate who is unlikely to make major mistakes. And their nominee, after a brilliant start in January and February to launch his candidacy and cement his base, hasn’t had a terrific six months. Obama continues to show few signs of extending his support to the demographics that are likely to decide the election — principally the working-class voters concentrated in industrial states such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
The good news for Obama and the Democrats is that the race doesn’t really get serious (i.e., engage the public), until the conventions kick off the fall campaign at the end of August. A win is still well within their grasp. But it will happen only if they stop buying the press’s view of the race and begin to recognize what’s really transpired so far.
To read the “Presidential Tote Board” blog, go to thePhoenix.com/blog/toteboard. Steven Stark can be reached atsds@starkwriting.com.
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Topics:
Stark Ravings
, Barack Obama, Elections and Voting, Politics, More
, Barack Obama, Elections and Voting, Politics, U.S. Politics, U.S. Presidential Election, John McCain, U.S. Republican Party, Hillary Clinton, Rudolph Giuliani, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Less
