So, in this election, what could constitute a gaffe differs for each candidate, depending on the circumstances. For McCain, anything in his performance that indicates he’s too old, he’s unprepared to deal with the economy, or he’s a traditional Republican could end up being devastating for him. And for Obama, anything that smacks of his being too imperious, inexperienced, pliable, or, in truth, too liberal, could spell trouble. Sarah Palin’s Achilles-heel million-dollar question is the same as Quayle and Ford’s before her: does she display enough acumen for the job? For Joe Biden, the problem will be the one he always has: will he put his foot in his mouth and dominate post-debate discussion that way?
3) Visuals can steal the show
A debate is first and foremost a television show; how one acts is frequently as important as what one says. (“Action is character,” wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald.) Although the visual advantage JFK had over a poorly made-up Richard Nixon has been exaggerated, the truth is that Kennedy always looked marvelous on TV, and anyone appearing in a studio with him instantly paled by comparison. (Ditto for Reagan.)
In the past, visuals have played out in different ways. Al Gore couldn’t help sighing during George W. Bush’s turns in the first debate in 2000, leaving the impression among some that he was a bit of a boor. When George H.W. Bush looked at his watch during the town-hall debate of 1992, it sent a clear message about what he thought of having to deal with the public — and it wasn’t a good one.
In this year’s debates, the public will assess the age issue visually: does Obama appear too young (or inexperienced) or McCain too old? And, as in other years, voters will try to come to terms with what it would be like to have this leader as a constant TV companion for four years.
Voters have doubts as to whether Obama has the experience and background to be president, and whether the change he offers is too radical. With McCain, the doubts are about whether he’s over the hill and offers enough change. The candidate who uses these appearances to deal with the misgivings voters have about his candidacy is likely to emerge as the winner in November.
To read the “Presidential Tote Board” blog, go to thePhoenix.com/blogs/toteboard. Steven Stark can be reached at sds@starkwriting.com.
JOHN MCCAIN
Odds: 6-7 │ this past week: same
BARACK OBAMA
Odds: 7-6 │ this past week: same
