Menino’s hit list

40 potential candidates for the 2009 election who could take on the mayor — if they have the courage.
By DAVID S. BERNSTEIN  |  November 28, 2007

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If the gov doesn’t fit
Patrick and Menino never have been on the same page — Menino aggressively backed Tom Reilly for governor, and some sources say Patrick and the mayor rarely talk. (Patrick inner-circle member Doug Rubin is said to still be bitter from Menino’s 2001 campaign against Peggy Davis-Mullin, for whom Rubin worked.)

Could Patrick, behind the scenes, orchestrate or play an assisting role in a challenge to Menino? The reward — a grateful ally running Boston — would be great, but the risks are high. A failed attempt would leave a furious mayor, and the image of a meddling governor.

At a recent political event, Boston mayor Thomas M. Menino asked Robert Crane, the former longtime state treasurer, how many years he had held that office. When Crane said 26, Menino gave a thoughtful look, nodded, and said, “That sounds like the right amount.”

A witness to the exchange relates it to make a point about the futility of predicting Menino’s successor: the mayor is so entrenched in his current post that, if he wants to run again, and again, and again, speculation about who will follow him becomes that much harder. For all we know, Boston’s first post-Menino mayor might still be in college.

Menino has been mayor since 1993, and the fact is that almost everyone in the city expects that he will run for — and win — an unprecedented fifth term in office in November 2009, surpassing Kevin White as the longest-serving leader in Boston city history.

Although they won’t say it on the record, for fear of Menino’s legendary vindictiveness, many city political insiders believe it’s time for regime change at City Hall. Menino, some say, was a great mayor for the 1990s, but fresh blood is needed to guide the city into the 21st century.

“Tom Menino has taken the city as far as he can go,” says one Democratic operative. “He’s Curt Schilling in the eighth inning.”

And yet, that same observer doesn’t see potential replacements who inspire confidence — everyone knows you don’t change pitchers when the bullpen looks shaky. Surveying the local political talent, this person concludes, “I’m not seeing any Jonathan Papelbons.”

Perhaps. But, as one elected official points out, sometimes the insiders don’t recognize a political star until after it rises. “It could be another version of Deval Patrick, or what Sam Yoon did in 2005,” says that veteran Boston pol. “They announce, and get snickers, but then light a fire and run with it.”

Vanquishing his enemies
Menino turns 65 on December 27 and, if re-elected in 2009, would be 71 by the end of another four-year term. Only three mayors of the 50 biggest US cities are older than that. Menino also has Crohn’s disease.

Then again, 70 might be the new 50 in Massachusetts politics. Sal DiMasi, 62, recently expressed his intention to be Speaker of the House for “a long, long, long, long, long, long time,” as reported by State House News Service. If Sal can reign into his 70s, why not Tommy?

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Related: Cash carousel, Yoon or Flaherty, Council contortions, More more >
  Topics: Talking Politics , Doug Rubin, Deval Patrick, Michael Flaherty,  More more >
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