Third, a bloc of superdelegates would have to declare for the putative candidate. Again, this isn’t impossible. There are about 25 Edwards delegates still out there that might be persuaded by Edwards himself — so that’s a start. Plus, there are enough horrified and disgruntled party elders who would welcome an alternative, if they thought they wouldn’t be making fools of themselves by going out on a limb for a candidate with no chance of being successful.
Finally, a Gore draft would eventually need the support of either Bill or Hillary. While the Clinton effort has begun to succeed in its argument that Obama has major weaknesses, it is time for its principals to realize that Hillary is never going to succeed in the camp’s second necessary argument: that she should be the alternative. She’s never going to catch Obama in the elected delegate count. And her initial high poll negatives (that have never been reduced) — combined with the way she has alienated Obama’s supporters — make her now an almost certain loser in November.
So, if she and Bill care about the party and nation and truly believe that Obama is unelectable — an unpopular but defensible argument — they have, really, only two choices. They can throw in with an effort to draft their former protégé. (A Gore and Newark mayor Cory Booker ticket?) Or they can continue to indulge their illusions and send their party hurtling toward disaster.
Odds: 1-5 | past week: same
Odds: 5-1 | same
Short by: 311
Short by: 438
Delegates needed to win: 2024
SOURCE: REAL CLEAR POLITICS AS OF 4/23/08
On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board Blog: http://www.thephoenix.com/toteboard
: Stark Ravings
, Barack Obama, Election Campaigns, Elections and Voting, More