So first it’s all about undecided Independents, but later, when the rubber meets the road, it’s all about getting decided voters in the booths. In the big public events, like Obama’s speech to several thousand in Manchester on Saturday, or McCain’s “start your engines” guest spot in front of some 90,000 watching the Sylvania 300 auto race in Loudon on Sunday, the emphasis is on persuading those Independents, who will form the bulk of what is expected to be the highest-participation election in New Hampshire history. But further from the media glare, both camps of declared voters are scheming to get that extra little percentage of their base to the polls. This emphasis on turnout may be where the next president will be determined.
Taking their time
New Hampshire voters are never in any rush to make up their minds. They are notoriously slow to decide, and will second-guess themselves repeatedly. The primaries have taught this lesson well, whether in John Kerry’s final-week surge in 2004, John McCain’s startling blowout in 2000, or Hillary Clinton’s poll-defying win nine months ago.
In this year’s January primary, McCain won the Republican vote, while Obama finished second to a resurgent Clinton. To some, that underlines the advantage that McCain has in the state — where he has spent a decade winning over both Republicans and Independents. Obama, by contrast, has only been working the state for 19 months, since his first campaign swing through New Hampshire in February 2007.
“No question, Senator McCain has had some appeal to people in New Hampshire,” says Mark MacKenzie, president of the New Hampshire AFL-CIO. “People know him better than they know Senator Obama — that’s just a reality.”
But Obama actually received 16,000 more votes in January than did McCain. Altogether the Democratic candidates drew 50,000 more votes than did the Republicans, including some 30,000 more Independents.
Some analysts believe that the same ratio will hold true in the general election. But others argue that many of those Independents were voting for Hillary Clinton in the primary — and, just as in states from Colorado to Pennsylvania, they are mainly white, blue-collar voters who might choose McCain over Obama.
The primaries might not serve as predictors in any event, as times have quickly changed. Back in January, Iraq and health care were the key topics for many voters. Today, it’s the economy and oil prices. The New Hampshire economy is holding up better than many of its neighbors, but the fear of the daily news reports is widespread.
And oil prices have come to dominate local political discussion. New Hampshirites from the remote northern areas tend to drive considerable distances, while many in the populous southeast commute to Boston. But the real wallet-buster, in all parts of the state, comes from the heating of houses through the frigid winter months. This will be the first winter that voters will be purchasing home heating oil since prices skyrocketed. Families are expecting to pay an extra several thousand dollars this year; many have been cutting other expenses in anticipation, and others simply have no idea how they will get by.
“As people pay that for that first tank in October, that’s going to affect their vote in November,” says Jim Demers, a New Hampshire co-chair for Obama in the primary.
