But in which direction? Democrats are reminding people about McCain’s old votes against home-heating-oil assistance programs, and telling them that Obama’s tax cuts will help cover those oil costs. Republicans are chanting “drill, baby, drill,” and criticizing Obama’s resistance to expanded offshore-oil exploration.
Both candidates are already spending money on TV and radio advertising aimed at Independents, both within the state and on Vermont and Massachusetts stations that reach New Hampshire voters. McCain has purchased 256 ad spots and Obama 228 on WMUR-TV this month alone, the Concord Monitor reports, while McCain has spent $30,000 advertising on Burlington stations and Obama has spent $400,000 in the Boston market.
There is a good chance that New Hampshire’s Independents will break solidly in one direction or the other. But odds are they won’t let anyone know until the very last minute.
True Blue?
After barely going for Bush in 2000 (with another 22,000 votes going to Ralph Nader), the traditionally Republican New Hampshire reversed course in 2004, when Kerry won there by nearly 10,000 votes. In that same election, voters also embraced John Lynch, a Democrat, as governor. Then in 2006, a Democratic tidal wave swept the state: both legislative houses flipped from Republican to Democratic control, and both Republican US congressmen were ousted by Democrats.
The question on many lips is whether that was a one-time anti-Republican vote, or the fulfillment of New Hampshire’s transition to becoming a solidly blue state. Demographic changes have brought more students and young families, many from Massachusetts, into the southeastern part of the state, and more New York liberals into the western areas. The reliably conservative north counties count for an ever-smaller portion of the overall electorate.
In addition, many observers on both sides of the aisle believe that New Hampshire’s Republicans — always more libertarian than anything — have become increasingly alienated from the national GOP’s social conservatism. “New England Republicans and Independents don’t see anything we identify with in the national Republican Party,” says one registered Independent from Northfield, attending the Obama Concord event this past weekend with her husband and two children.
State Republicans argue that many New Hampshire residents want to reverse some of what happened in 2006. The Democratic legislature and governor are taking criticism for a variety of alleged ills, ranging from immigration issues to education funding.
And Democrats admit that their opposition is better organized now, and better prepared at the ground level, than it was two years ago. “The Republicans are more energized because of ’06,” says Maggie Hassan, a Democratic state senator from Exeter. “They’re not taking anything for granted.”
Sununu in particular is organizing aggressively in all parts of the state, as he works to defend his US Senate seat. He cautiously remained neutral in the Republican presidential primary, partly to avoid offending anyone but, some suggest, mostly to avoid being seen with other Republicans. Sununu, like many other GOP Senators running for re-election, also skipped the party’s recent national convention, and has split with leadership on some recent votes.
But Shaheen and the New Hampshire Democratic Party repeatedly link Sununu to Bush and the national GOP, just as Democratic challengers are doing from Oregon to Mississippi. “The anger . . . toward George Bush and his policies from two years ago has not subsided at all,” says Demers, a New Hampshire co-chair for Obama in the primary.
