To be sure, McCain can come back. After all, his candidacy had been written off once before, about a year ago, and look where he is now. Given that events and his own behavior have hurt his candidacy, though, McCain probably needs some kind of event — a foreign-policy crisis, an Obama gaffe, a truly memorable debate performance, or better yet, some heroic leadership to forge a compromise that ends the Capitol logjam — to help move things back his way. He also has to hope that Sarah Palin doesn’t embarrass the ticket in her prime-time debate.
What’s intriguing is that McCain seems to relish beating the odds. It’s almost as if he’s happier coming from behind. And, in the last 10 days or so of the campaign, McCain may benefit from a closing rush, as voters weigh both their fear of the known versus their fear of the unknown, and the prospect of a complete Democratic takeover of government. But one suspects it didn’t have to be this way.
Some pundits have praised McCain’s fighter-pilot mentality in this campaign: the way he shifts and turns on a dime. Yet those qualities aren’t necessarily what the electorate is looking for in a president. To use another well-worn metaphor, voters want their ship of state to sail smoothly, without incident, so they can go about living their lives and pretty much ignoring their government. With McCain at the helm, the voyage may be exciting, but everyone gets seasick. The risk for him now is that on November 4, the reaction is: thanks, but no thanks. We’ve booked this trip with another captain.
To read the “Presidential Tote Board” blog, go to thePhoenix.com/blogs/toteboard. Steven Stark can be reached at sds@starkwriting.com.
ODDS
JOHN MCCAIN
Odds: 2-1 | this past week: 5-6
BARACK OBAMA
Odds: 1-2 | this past week: 6-5
