Don’t have much time for a long post today, but amidst the celebration, as we debate our rotation and size up the competition (good to be reminded that Lester is 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA against the Rays this season), I did want to extend some condolences.
To Mike Scioscia, for having his shrewd small-ball tactical maneuver blow up in his face.
To John Lackey, who, one must understand, is only lashing out in anger.
To the Rally Monkey, who not only was hung in effigy, but, worse, was compared to Sarah Palin.
To Curt Schilling, who, to judge by the timing of this announcement, apparently finds it difficult not to be the center of attention.
And, lest we forget, to the partisans over at NYYFans.com, who are now forced to watch two of their least favorite teams compete for the pennant.
Says one pouting pinstriper: “I came to the realization last night that picking a team to root for in this series was like trying to pick someone to root for in an arm wrestling match between Hitler and bin Laden.”
That can only mean that this is gonna be a good one.
Alex Cora grounded out to end the game.
And Javier Lopez was tagged with the loss.
Five hours and 19 minutes of baseball is far more than I’m inclined to recap here.
So, as you down your third cup of coffee, wondering what’s become (and, perhaps, what’s to come) of Josh Beckett and Dustin Pedroia and Mike Lowell's hip, here’s something that will hopefully lighten your mood. An interview with two guys who did not play last night, but, given the brutal attrition of that long affair, may well be tonight.
Two guys who are not Javier Lopez and Alex Cora...
In the words of Wayne and Garth, "Game on!"
And so it begins. The Red Sox, as you're no doubt aware, are about to embark on their second consecutive postseason, once again facing the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the first round. The game will begin at 10:30, and I'll be here all night. I may need some extra caffenation to make that possible, but I'm up for it. Feel free to share your thoughts on the game in the comments section. I imagine a good percentage of readers won't be getting to this until tomorrow morning, though.
Two games happened already today, with the Phillies winning their first game 3-1 on the strength of a dominant start by Cole Hamels. I don't want to overstate things too much, but Hamels might wind up being one of the most dominant figures of this postseason. That said, the Brewers countered with a guy who hasn't pitched much followed by a gaggle of relievers and the Phillies only managed three runs, all aided by Brewer miscues in the filed. I was expecting this to be somewhat lopsided in the Phillies' favor, but I'm starting to doubt that.
The Cubs... it wasn't a good night for the Cubs. Ryan Dempster seemed to be fighting nerves all night. He was all over the place with his location. I'd imagine that most people watching the game could probably tell that something wasn't right with him, whether it was physical or mental. He kept wriggling out of trouble, but it was only a matter of time before the Dodgers would make him pay, and Piniella waited the proverbial "one batter too long" to take him out. He needed to be more aggressive in getting Dempster out of there, rather than waiting until he after he gave up the inevitable grand slam (to James Loney) and then gave up a double to the next hitter. Not a great showing from Lou.
Manny Ramirez hit a home run, which I'm sure some people around these parts are furious about. Personally, I'm kind of over it: neither party was happy in the Manny situation, and now both parties are. It would have been nice if it didn't happen this way, but what's done is done. I wish him well, as long as it's not at the expense of the Red Sox.
10:07 Oh, we're starting now, apparently. We're here with Chip Caray and Buck Martinez, two guys I don't totally hate, for the most part.
10:08 Jacoby Ellsbury raps a double off the wall before I even have a chance to talk about his season. Chip Caray originally calls it "playable," only to be surprised as it continues to carry.
10:10 John Lackey has an odd playoff beard going on. He's a weird-looking dude. He reminds me of someone, but I can't put my finger on it . . .
10:12 After Youk makes an out, we get our first FrankTV ad of the game! Frank Caliendo as Bush parodies the sheer number of ads: "If you electificate me to a third term, I promise even more Frank TV ads. Until you throw up." Doesn't make me want to watch the show or anything, but it's a start towards making me not totally hate him.
10:15 Lester takes the mound against Chone Figgins. Looked like TBS showed the wrong stat line just now.
10:19 Mark Teixeira takes his first at-bat with a man on. Teixeira, with good reason, scares me more than anyone on the Angels, including Vlad. I really hope he doesn't wind up as a Yankee or Oriole next season. Sure enough, he knocks a base hit.
10:20 Lester exploits Vlad's "swing at everything" tendencies, gets him to pop up on an eye-high fastball, bringing up the kind-of-overrated-but-also-simultaneously-underrated Torii Hunter.
10:22 Lester seems to be having trouble locating against righties in the early going, everything is inside. He walks Hunter to load the bases. The trend continues against Howie Kendrick . . .
. . . who grounds out to Lowell. Lester escapes!
10:27 J.D. Drew's first at-bat. This could determine the whole series!
He grounds out - results inconclusive.
10:29 Now it's Bay's first postseason at-bat ever. He's going to have to hit a home run and get on base three times to keep pace with Manny . . . he strikes out, but Manny grounded into a double play in his first at-bat. Bay comes out ahead so far!
10:31 Lowell lines out - he looked a little rusty on those first two pitches.
While there's a lull, I'll talk about what some people are concerned over regarding young Lester, namely his home-road split. The thing about road numbers is that they're essentially a loose combination of several one- and two- game samples. If you look at his starts this year, you'll notice that of the road games, a few stand out. He pitched poorly in Japan, Minnesota, Toronto twice, and Houston, and "lost" in Oakland and Chicago. But the game is in Anaheim. Unless he just hates hotel rooms, I can't imagine it's really indicative of anything. Maybe I'm just rationalizing, I dunno. His numbers are thrown off by a few scattered disaster starts, is what I'm saying. He just had an inconsistent year. I'm still confident.
10:35 Craig Sager is wearing a bright salmon-pink blazer. He makes his first appearance to deliver the first mention of Lester's battle with cancer. It's easy to take this for granted watching Lester all the time, but it really is a remarkable story, when it comes right down to it.
10:40 Something weird about seeing an ETrade ad these days.
10:42 Lackey hits Lowrie, which is fine if it gets him on base. In case you're wondering, yes, I have tabs open right now in Firefox to baseball-reference.com, baseballprospectus.com, and fangraphs.com. I'd be lost without them.
10:43 ... but not as lost as Varitek looked trying to bunt just now. Yeesh.
Lackey with the kick save on the ground ball by Varitek, a great slide by Lowrie keeps them out of the double-play. Ellsbury then grounds one up the middle which Kendrick makes an amazing running backhanded shovel-flip on.
10:46 This is the second Pedroia at-bat, and neither Caray nor Martinez has brought up the MVP race. Did the hype peak too soon? Are we doomed to another year of Justin Morneau?
10:47 Mike Scioscia will always remind me of The Simpsons - his cameo doesn't really translate to text, but you probably know what I"m talking about.
10:51 Caliendo also does ads for Dish Network "turbo HD." He just did an imitation of ... someone. I'm not sure who it was supposed to be like at all.
10:54 Lester is once again throwing a little wild to Figgins, which is probably not necessary. He strikes him out, though, so it must be working.
10:56 Garret Anderson just keeps hanging on, huh. I keep expecting him to be done, but then he's now 2 for 2 tonight.
10:59 Caray and Martinez are really talking up the idea of Lester getting stronger as the game goes on, and really talking up Varitek's influence. Martinez is an ex-catcher, and he's giving some actual insights into the psychology of pitch calling. Tim McCarver is also an ex-catcher, and he's never said anything this lucid on Fox. I'm impressed, and a little surprised. Martinez practically calls pitches along with Varitek, and the strategy worked as Lester strikes out Teixeira. Wow.
11:01 Ah, the first mention of Vlad's postseason struggles on the evening. I don't think Vlad is a choker at all, I just think he's never been completely healthy for the Angels at all, and those many nagging injuries take their toll by the time October rolls around. If they could afford to rest him more during the season, it might be less of an issue, I would think.
Lowrie boots a routine grounder. Ruh-roh . . .
11:05 Sure enough, Hunter knocks in the game's first run on a clean single that drops in front of Bay. The scouts all said Lowrie was a defensive liability at short, but we didn't listen. Inning's over now.
11:07 Complaining about the frequency and ridiculousness of ED ads is a little like complaining about the wetness of water, but I really would be happy never to hear "Viva Viagra" again.
11:09 Youks comes back with the leadoff single. On more than one occasion have I referred to Youkilis as "Mr. May" in private conversation, but I was delighted to be wrong this year.
11:10 Bay is Canadian, and presumably he played hockey at one point in his youth. So why is he of all people among those not rocking a playoff beard?
He might want to think about doing something to change his luck as he's now struck out twice.
11:13 I guess I'm concerned about what to expect from Lowell in the longer term, here. He's going to have hip surgery, and then... what? I don't think I've even heard of someone else having a torn labrum in their hip. Still 1-0, by the way, in case you're reading this on your computer and not watching on TV, listening to the radio, or checking MLB.com's Gamecast.
11:19 Sure, now Jed Lowrie can play perfect shortstop.
11:22 The middle innings are a good time to talk about this - despite the fact that he got so many saves, K-Rod really didn't have that great of a year. He's always walked a lot of guys, but this year, his strikeout rate went way down while the walks held steady. Not a good combination for sustainable success, and true to form, he may have saved a bunch of games, but he also blew seven opportunities, which is kind of a lot. Only two AL relievers blew more.
11:25 Caray just did the classic radio trick of making me think someone had hit a ball harder than he really did with a "Swing and a drive!" line about a Varitek fly ball that didn't even make the warning track. I think I hate him right now.
11:28 NOW they're talking about Mr. Heartandsouloftheteam Dustin Pedroia. Somehow this is the first time I've heard that his teammates refer to him as "El Caballito," the "Little Horse."
Buck calls Ellsbury's stolen base, but El Caballito lines out to Gary Matthews Jr. Let the record show that Gary Matthews Jr. still kind of isn't very good.
11:31 These are some really boring, nondescript ads by the way.
11:33 Lester really is pitching well, I hope that doesn't get lost should this score somehow hold up.
Buck Martinez once again with in-game strategy 101 - I feel like a rube for finding it interesting.
11:35 Wonderful, now we get the story of how Teixeira was originally drafted by the Red Sox, who then couldn't sign him. It's always seemed like a "He-said/He-said" kind of thing to me, but who really knows. I love Wikipedia's take on the events:
In 1998 the Red Sox drafted Teixeira out of Mount St. Joseph high school in Maryland in the 9th round. Then something between the team and Teixeira happened and he walked away from the Red Sox's contract worth about 1.5 million and went to college at Georgia Tech.
Meanwhile, Teixeira and Vlad have just collected back-to-back singles.
11:38 Lester induces a weak ground ball to get out of it. This is a great game so far.
11:41 Ortiz just popped one up, and looks furious with himself. Again, hey, the Angels' bullpen is all reputation at this point.
11:46 BAY GIVES THE RED SOX THE LEAD! WEE BAY! ROBOCOP!
Remember when I was making fun of him for not growing a beard? Yeah, I was wrong about that.
11:47 Another thing I want to make sure doesn't get lost in the shuffle, Mike Lowell has hit the ball hard twice, just once directly at Garrett Anderson and just now he was robbed by Teixeira.
I should explain: "Wee Bay" may sound a little Chris Berman, but it's a reference to Roland "Wee Bey" Brice, a drug soldier The Wire who was a ruthless assassin in the Barksdale organization. It's meant as a compliment. "Robocop" is because Bay kind of looks like Peter Weller.
11:51 We get our first shot of Papelbon. There's a belief that he had an off year, but - anecdotally, anyway - I'd say there was as much luck as anything involved. For example, he had a 12% infield hit rate, which is ridiculously high - most guys, including notorious groundballers like Derek Lowe or Brandon Webb are at 5-7%. His ERA was artificially inflated by that last outing against the Yankees, where he was pitching in the rain in a meaningless game. Stop worrying about the guy.
11:54 Lester is feeling it now that he's got a lead - he strikes out the side.
11:59 How did I not realize until now: no Dane Cook this year! And it doesn't even seem like they're showing us 40,000 "Only One October" ads this time, either.
Of course as I write that, they show one, with one of the kids from Old School talking about the Cubs and Dodgers.
12:00 Which reminds me, if I'm a Cubs fan, I can't be feeling too good right now - there's a lot of pressure on Carlos Zambrano, and he's not exactly a picture of stoic emotional consistency. Plus there are lingering questions about the condition of his arm.
I swear I'm hearing "Let's Go Red Sox" chants at Anaheim.
12:03 Gary Matthews misplays an Ellsbury liner into a triple (oh, wait they give him an error) and we hear the "Gary Matthews Jr is one of the best outfielders" or some such nonsense. According to John Dewan's plus-minus system, a/k/a the first fielding metric I could Google, the answer is: not so much.
12:06 Our first mentino of "Pedroia for MVP." I'm a little surprised. Could be that Chip is not a believer.
Also, Buck is emphasizing the first syllable in "Ortiz" all of a sudden, which sounds kind of funny.
12:08 Lackey is out and Darren Oliver, the man who the Red Sox got for Carl Everett, is in. The Angels used to roll without a lefty in their pen, which I respected. Oliver is not really great against lefties or righties, really, but he's okay, I guess.
I think too much emphasis is put on which hand a guy uses, though - if someone is more effective against lefties, why should it matter if he happens to be righthanded?
Again, I'm an idiot, though, as Oliver strikes out David Ortiz and stranks two runners.
12:17 Sorry for the delay, I was watching Sarah Palin struggle to name a Supreme Court case other than Roe V. Wade. Gotcha, indeed.
12:22 Oh, jeez. Caray and Martinez are overall pretty good, even though Caray has some trouble picking up the ball once it's in play. But saying things like "the only thing (about Lester) that's wrong is how he's listed in the media guide - he is bigger and stronger than that."
The 2-1 lead feels a lot more comfortable than it should, though.
12:24 So hey, Caliendo does Bill Clinton and Donald Trump. And Andy Rooney. How unique and original!
12:32 Bay hits a 2-out double off Scot Shields, who's been owned by the Red Sox in his career. Earlier today I said "He's going to have to hit a home run and get on base three times to keep pace with Manny." So, uh, there you go.
12:35 Oh, boy. Lowell checks his swing, grabs his hip, grounds out and limps his way up the line. He's probably done for the night.
12:38 Masterson is in for Teixeira/Vlad/Hunter with a one-run lead. Huge vote of confidence for the kid. I wonder what will happen to him in 2009.
In 2008, though he just gave up a bloop hit to -- NO! ELLSBURY WITH AN AMAZING CATCH!
12:42 Masterson surrenders a hard-hit single to Vlad. This really should be two men on right now.
Masterson surrenders another blooper, which is just out of the reach of Youkilis, but then Youk nabs Guerrero trying to advance to third. Masterson by trade is supposed to be a ground-ball pitcher, but at the major-league level that hasn't played out quite according to the script. He's certainly benefiting from the work of his defense tonight.
In case you were wondering, Lowell is still in there.
12:50 Whew.
12:54 Top of the 9th, meaning this live blog will soon be at a merciful end - Varitek successfully sacrifices, jeez.
12:58 Ellsbury, who started playing like a competent Big Leaguer again in September, comes through to deliver an insurance run with authority. They cut to Mike Lowell looking fired up.
Ellsbury and Crisp actually both played great in the last two months of the season; as it turns out, keeping both of them around was the right call.
1:05 Ortiz now has hits in 12 consecutive Division Series games - kind of an ornamental achievement, but whatever. It's 4-1 Sox.
1:09 They're talking up this Arredondo guy. I'm man enough to admit I'd never heard of him until now. Apparently Caray and Buck think of him as a future closer, which is something. He throws three pitches and gets Youkilis to ground out. Who needs K-Rod!
1:11 Now that it's 4-1, some of the drama is sucked out. But by no means am I complaining. TBS points out that the Angels lineup is 1 for 38 against Papelbon, who's in now.
They're discussing Papelbon's "overreliance on his fastball," but again, the results have been outstanding if you ignore some bouts with bad luck.
1:16 They still do the Rally Monkey? A one-out single by Kendry Morales, and they fire up the big board in Anaheim.
1:20 Papelbon strikes out Aybar and Figgins, and that's that. Boston "steals" home field, and continues to prove that the whole "home field advantage in the playoffs" thing is somewhat meaningless.
Game Two Friday night will be Daisuke v. Ervin Santana. I don't have a lot of confidence in Dice, but I'm less than impressed by Ervin, also. So who knows.
I won't be able to live blog, but perhaps I'll put up an open forum thread if anyone wants to post.
Now: I'm going to bed.
PITCHERS (10): Josh Beckett; Paul Byrd; Manny Delcarmen; Jon Lester; Javier Lopez; Justin Masterson; Daisuke Matsuzaka; Hideki Okajima; Jonathan Papelbon; Tim Wakefield.
CATCHERS (3): Kevin Cash; David Ross; Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Sean Casey, Alex Cora, Mike Lowell; Jed Lowrie; David Ortiz; Dustin Pedroia; Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Jason Bay; Coco Crisp; J.D. Drew; Jacoby Ellsbury; Mark Kotsay.
Let's do this.
Tomorrow night, I will be live-blogging the broadcast of Game One of the ALDS. Likely topics will include discussion of the overrated-ness of K-Rod, complaints about the frequency of Frank TV ads, mockery of the TBS announcers, and, hopefully, further praise for Jon Lester. Thanks to the late west-coast start time, things might get a bit interesting towards the later innings. Stop in and say hello.
I’ve been saying for a while that this October seems already shaping up to have a 2005-Tony-Graffanino kinda feel to it.
Lately, though, I’d starting thinking that assessment was a bit harsh. After all, who knows. Sure, we’re banged up, definitely don't seem to be the well-balanced, leak-proof attack machine we were last fall.
But October is wide open. Anything can happen. A whole new ball game. Right?
Well, last night I started getting that feeling again.
Time will tell.
Let’s just pray Lester and/or Dice-K can come up big on Wednesday and/or Friday.
And, especially, that Justin Masterson and the bullpen can tow the line.
With luck, Beckett can go on Sunday.
And if he can pitch like Josh Beckett should pitch, all the better.
I just wish I could be as sanguine as Bob Ryan.
In the other news...
I paid a visit last week to a relic of Red Sox’ past.
The 1912 World Series Trophy was at the Cask and Flagon, a quick stop before it heads to New York, where it’ll be auctioned off by Guernsey’s Auction House on October 18 at Madison Square Garden.
The auction is primarily meant as a commemoration of “the closing of Yankee Stadium and the end of a baseball era,” says Guernsey’s president Arlan Ettinger, but there are hundreds of other artifacts on the block, many of them “from the great teams that played against the Yankees.”
The trophy, Ettinger says, “is one of the greatest baseball treasures ever to be offered anywhere, at any time. Physically small, it nevertheless represents one of the greatest achievements ever. It’s certainly one of the most important baseball artifacts that can possibly be sold.”
Back in 1912, the year Fenway Park opened, 11 years before Yankee Stadium was even built, teams didn’t get World Series trophies. Players got rings, but that was it.
But after Smokey Joe Wood and Tris Speaker led the Sox to a 4-3 (with one tie) World Series victory over the New York Giants, John Francis "Honey Fitz" Fitzgerald, mayor of Boston, future grandfather of John F. Kennedy, and member in good standing of the Royal Rooters — wonder if he knew Hurdy and Stuffy? — decided to commission a trophy in recognition of the team’s achievement.
He made two, in fact. One for owner John I. Taylor, and one for player-manager Jake Stahl. Taylor’s hasn’t been seen since, but Stahl’s having been in his family for generations, and then passed on to a collector, is now up for sale.
It’s your solemn duty — or, perhaps, that of the Yawkey Way ownership troika, who probably have a bit more scratch than you — to make sure it doesn’t fall into the wrong hands.
“Is it conceivable that some fanatical Yankee fan could get ahold of it and ceremonially do something to it?” Ettinger asks, miming a lusty sledgehammer swing. Yes.
“But I doubt that. There is a respect. Despite the hatred on the diamond, there is a respect [between the Yankees and Sox]. Sentimentally, though, who wouldn’t root to see this thing back here, where it belongs?”
They just can’t seem to seal the deal. Sorta starting to remind me of Obama in the primaries.
Hopefully the same won’t hold true in the World Series and the general election, respectively.
(Incidentally, the Sox still have a 11.16 percent chance of winning the division, says Baseball Prospectus. And Nate Silver, who made his bones at BP and has since branched out into politics at his excellent site FiveThirtyEight, has sifted through the polls, crunched the numbers, and weighted the data all appropriately, and seems to suggest things are looking up for Obama.)
In the mean time,
* Johnny Pesky gets his number retired this weekend. Terrific news. Well-deserved. No discussion.
* And how's this for a place to retire at the end of every weary day?
Wanna buy Big Papi’s bed? Opening bid is $2500 and all proceeds benefit Boston Health Care for the Homeless.
Frankly, I’m surprised a King Size is big enough.
Eh. Not quite the result I was looking for, Timmeh.
Moving on.
About this Schilling thing?
Just. Shut. Up. Already.
Seriously, what is the point at this point? Manny is kicking ass and taking names in Los Angeles. Curt is designing video games in Maynard. This is all old news. Whatever happened to live and let live?
Also, what he said:
As a fan, I could care less if a guy is impossible in the clubhouse, on the plane, in the hotel, at team meetings, whatever. If he delivers between the lines, I want him to be in the lineup. Similarly, I could care less if another guy is really nice. If he can't hit, pitch, field, run better than another guy he should be glued to the bench, traded or cut. Mr. Nice Guy is getting paid a LOT of money to watch more productive players play. He should be happy with that instead of whining to the manager. I'd rather watch the Sox win with a few jerks on the team than lose with 100% nice guys. The goal is to win championships not field the all-Nice Guy team. Let's not lose the reason why you get to cash those checks. It's not because you pick up after yourself in the locker room. And the manager is getting paid to win games, not to win the Miss Congeniality Award. If he jeopardizes team success because he consistently rationalizes playing his favorites over better players, he should be fired so he can pursue his true calling; being Activity Director on a cruise ship.
Uh, yeah. Perhaps I should not have been so hubristic.
A dose of humility may be just what the doctor ordered. So, Wake, could you please float like butterfly tonight? A win would be much-appreciated.
Thanks in advance!
In the mean time, I’m gonna try to erase the memory of that tragic waste of a dynamite Beckett outing by thinking back on my honeymoon, where I was surprised to discover that Red Sox nation extends south easterly to the British overseas territory of Bermuda.
One of our cab driver’s cars was bedecked in Olde Towne Team paraphernalia (he didn’t miss Manny either). One friendly cashier filled us in on the details of the previous night’s game. (You can get NESN down there — and the NBC affiliate at the hotel, weirdly, was WHDH.) And at The Swizzle Inn, the island’s oldest pub, the flag out front proudly trumpets its allegiances.
Ten things about one-run games.
Recipe for Rum Swizzle. (Not to be abused after one-run losses.)
Great, great news.
"We are all on the same page with regard to our vision for the organization," Henry wrote in an e-mail this afternoon. "The negotiations were pleasant and were all about rewarding Theo for the great, great job he has done in bringing two world championships to the Red Sox. We look forward to the difficult task of trying to win a third."
Well-deserved. And especially gratifying considering how different things were around these parts just three years ago.
Guess he'll have to figure out another Halloween costume this year.
If we only win one at the Trop all year, I suppose that’s a good way to do it.
But, of course, we’re not gonna win just one.
We’re gonna win tonight.
And then tomorrow night.
And then we’re gonna stay on top and finish this thing up.
Those devilish Rays had a nice little run at it this summer, and I’m sure it’s done wonders for their self-esteem. But now it’s about time for the big boys to take over.
The air is cooling. Fall starts in a few days. And, my esteemed colleague’s trepidation notwithstanding, I’m inclined to predict we’ll soon have — at the very, very least — a white division banner to hang outside our beloved Fenway Park.
Just win.
In Bill James's Gold Mine 2008, he talks at length about Nolan Ryan. In short, he finds Ryan to be a fascinatingly unique pitcher - unique in his approach, and in the results he got by going about his work that way. Ryan, as he tells it, simply refused to get a batter out any way but by striking him out. And to a degree, it worked - he is the all-time leader in strikeouts. He also didn't give up a lot of hits - see his record seven no-hitters - because he'd hardly ever throw something a batter could make solid contact on. But he also walked a lot of guys, too, which would lead to probably just as many base runners as it would have had he occasionally pitched to contact, sacrificing some of those strikeouts for more efficient ground- or flyouts. Without consulting a pile of retrosheet data, I'm also going to assume that this meant he threw a lot of pitches in his career.
James - a Red Sox employee, I remind you all - implies that usually the Nolan Ryan model is not one that leads to a lot of success as a Major-League pitcher. Yet, obviously, it worked for Ryan - although he also was the losing pitcher in nearly as many games as he won (not that a starter's W-L record is much of an indicator of anything). And others have followed in his footsteps. James created a fictional award for pitchers who follow Ryan's lead and find success in doing so. It's based on the convergence of wins, losses, strikeouts, and walks. Last year's winner was Carlos Zambrano - who, incidentally, pitched his first no-hitter last night. This year, Big Z has cut down on the walks, so he's likely safe in 2008. But two of his possible successors for the award match up tonight in Tampa with first place in the AL East at stake, just as they did last week in Fenway - Scott Kazmir and Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Dice is second in the AL in walks and he missed a few starts with injury. Kazmir is just outside of the top ten. He, too, has missed time with injuries. Kazmir has about 15 more strikeouts to his name, but they're both in the top twenty in the AL. On the anecdotal tip, most Red Sox fans I talk to say things like "I can't stand watching him pitch" when discussing Matsuzaka, yet he keeps on winning. Somehow, the two have only been on the losing end eight games, though, perhaps a testament to the Red Sox and Rays offense on days when the two pitch, or perhaps it's that the two are adept at keeping batted balls from becoming hits - Dice's BABIP is .272 and Kazmir's is .276, in other words, both on the lucky side, but not glaringly flukish. But they both throw a lot of pitches, so tonight's game might resemble last week's, when both starters had thrown over 100 pitches and exited the game by the sixth inning.
Also, there's a more likely candidate for James's "Nolan Ryan Award" this year - A. J. Burnett, who's 18-10, leads the AL in strikeouts, and is third in walks. Burnett can become a free agent after this year, and rumors have had the Red Sox interested in making a run at acquiring him. One imagines James advising against it.
More like "Scott Kaz-yourworstnightmir," am I right Sox fans?
Okay, fine: Kazmir has given up seven runs in nine innings (two starts) against the Red Sox this year. And yeah, he has problems pitching late into ballgames (which looms as a potential bugaboo for the Rays come playoff time.) But we still fear him when he pitches against the Sox. We can't help it.
Lest we sound too negative, we should point out that even if they do lose today, we're sure they are still going to pass the Rays soon enough. Just maybe not tonight.
We'll check back in during the game, perhaps do a little live-blogging if things are going well.
UPDATE #1: Vintage Daisuke tonight; sort of sums up his season - 5 innings, 102 pitches, 5 strikeouts, 4 walks. This may merit a blog post soon. But this thing isn't over yet.
UPDATE #2: Wow, that sucked. Let's not read too much into this, though.
We are the jockeys; the jockeys are we.
So a lot of people have been talking up the idea of Dustin Pedroia winning the MVP award lately: the Fenway crowd chanted it at him, Ozzie Guillen famously called him a "jockey," David Pinto used his success in the cleanup role as an excuse to post the video of Andy Kaufman performing the Mighty Mouse theme on Saturday Night Live, and even Rick Sutcliffe floated the possibility during the broadcast of Wednesday's Rays-Yankees game. On Sons of Sam Horn, they're comparing him to the likes of George Brett, Derek Jeter, Pete Rose, and vintage Nomar. He is hitting (ready for this?) .667/.667/1.222 when batting fourth in the lineup (sample size, etc.) He's leading all second basemen in Nerdy McNerderson stats like VORP and Wins Probability Added. He is awesome.
The question, of course, is not whether or not he deserves the MVP award. He deserves to be considered as a serious candidate, for sure, along with Carlos Quentin, Justin Morneau, Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez, Jermaine Dye, Grady Sizemore, and . . . well, Kevin Youkilis, but he's probably a different blog post altogether. The real question, though, is whether or not he can win the award when you factor in the mercurial nature of the voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Just looking at how they've voted in the past, they tend to look at a couple of things. First, with some exceptions, they tend to believe the MVP should come from a winning team, one that either makes the playoffs or comes close to doing so (closer than expected anyway.) They like guys who reach the classic plateaus in the Triple Crown stat categories - batting .300, hitting 20 home runs, and driving in 100 runs, though that last one has been negotiable for leadoff types. And sometimes, being a vocal-leader type, "clutch," or just generally a guy the media likes and would make a good story help out.
Pedroia fits all of those criteria - the Red Sox are likely to make the playoffs and 20 homers and a .300 average are within reach for him. He's perceived as "clutch" and he never shuts up. He gets a lot of "heart and soul of the Red Sox" ink. Would he make a great story? Of course he would! The media loves stuff like this! Pedroia's got more talent than most guys of his stature. But at the same time, when a lot of the people who write about baseball for a living see the guy, all they see is his height. And they love it! Couldn't this be a case of the media's ignorance playing into Pedroia's favor? Pedroia and Eckstein aren't similar players - Pedroia is, to put it succinctly, better at baseball - but the media frequently mentions them in the same breath, because they're both short guys. And they love Eckstein so much. They would have voted Eckstein for MVP five times over had his numbers been even remotely good enough to justify it. So they see Pedroia, who is a media-approved candidate, who is kind of short and plays up the middle like Eckstein . . . I mean, would you be surprised if they made the connection? They'd be voting for a good candidate, but for a bad reason. And I suspect Pedroia and the Red Sox would be okay with that.
Yeah, that isn't good. While there is some precedent for a pitcher to visit Andrews in Birmingham and come back without scheduling a date with a scalpel for the dreaded tendon transfer surgery (a/k/a "Tommy John surgery," after the gentleman pictured above, the first to undergo such a procedure.) But more often than not, it's the case. The negative side is obvious, of course - Beckett would likely be out for most of next season. On the one hand, the Red Sox could easily still make the playoffs in 2008. On the other hand, without Beckett at their disposal, their chances for repeating are much slimmer than they were this morning.