Friday, March 31, 2006

Farm boys

The Globe unveils their blowout 2006 preview section today, focusing on the harvest we’re about to reap from our bumper-crop farm system. It’s comprised of far too many features, charts, graphs, and sidebars to link to individually, but check it all out here.

One of the more interesting pieces is Edes’s piece about the change in the evaluation of prospects, in which he talks to Bill James about major league equivalencies. (“Baseball men generally believe that minor league batting statistics are not a reliable indicator of how a player will hit in the major leagues,” James says. “After studying the issue extensively, I concluded that minor league batting statistics predicted major league performance with the same accuracy as previous major league batting statistics.”)

James, of course, works for us. "Numerous teams employ their own sabermetricians,” Edes writes. “Those that don't can always turn to Baseball Prospectus, which publishes an annual rating of players and is available on a daily basis on the Internet.”

Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, as promised, here’s the full interview I did with BP contributor Steven Goldman, in which he discusses Big Papi’s quote-unquote clutch hitting (“there are very few players who are terrible hitters overall who suddenly turn into Babe Ruth just because a guy is standing on second base with two outs. David Ortiz is Babe Ruth all the time. He’s Babe Ruth with the bases empty and Babe Ruth with a runner on second, so it’s sort of a natural thing that he tends to drive in these runs”); puzzles over Alex Gonzalez (“it was a very un-Red Sox-like signing. I think they kind of got boxed in... But the upshot of it is that is that if Pedroia can mature quickly — and we at Baseball Prospectus probably like Pedroia better than anyone; certainly better than Baseball America, or anyone else — if he can do that and be a real contributor, that’s gonna make a huge difference.”), and evaluates Coco Crisp (“I think Coco’s gonna be very good, and I think [comparing him] and Johnny Damon, you’re going to have a very hard time telling their numbers apart this season.”)

Etc.
Arroyo sure got his revenge yesterday, eh? Yikes. Too bad, then, that this is untrue. (Uh, April Fools Day isn’t until tomorrow, guys.)

Looks like Oil Can has slipped the surly bonds of Brockton and agreed to a deal with the Nashua Pride, playing for old friend Butch Hobson. (Can’t Ricky get some love?)

But if you can believe your Babelfish, a bigger deal is coming right down the pike. ESPN Deportes is reporting that...

The Dominican toletero David Ortiz is near signing an extension of 50 million dollars with the Red Averages of Boston.... ‘Big Papi’ would gain an average of 12.5 annual million in the seasons from the 2007 to the 2010.

Discussion here is more or less in favor of it, of course, but there are some reservations expressed about laying out that kind of cash for a guy who can’t play the field. Baloney.

That’s a hefty chunk of change, sure. But if there’s anyone they should be overpaying for, it’s him. If we don’t, someone else will. If you need more convincing, ThePhoenix.com web dude Ryan S. whipped up this horrific photoshopped nightmare (Dirt Dog eat your heart out!)

‘Nuff said.

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