The Globe unveils their blowout 2006 preview section today, focusing on the harvest we’re about to reap from our bumper-crop farm system. It’s comprised of far too many features, charts, graphs, and sidebars to link to individually, but check it all out here.

One of the more interesting pieces is Edes’s piece about the change in the evaluation of prospects, in which he talks to Bill James about major league equivalencies. (“Baseball men generally believe that minor league batting statistics are not a reliable indicator of how a player will hit in the major leagues,” James says. “After studying the issue extensively, I concluded that minor league batting statistics predicted major league performance with the same accuracy as previous major league batting statistics.”)

James, of course, works for us. "Numerous teams employ their own sabermetricians,” Edes writes. “Those that don't can always turn to Baseball Prospectus, which publishes an annual rating of players and is available on a daily basis on the Internet.”

Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, as promised, here’s the full interview I did with BP contributor Steven Goldman, in which he discusses Big Papi’s quote-unquote clutch hitting (“there are very few players who are terrible hitters overall who suddenly turn into Babe Ruth just because a guy is standing on second base with two outs. David Ortiz is Babe Ruth all the time. He’s Babe Ruth with the bases empty and Babe Ruth with a runner on second, so it’s sort of a natural thing that he tends to drive in these runs”); puzzles over Alex Gonzalez (“it was a very un-Red Sox-like signing. I think they kind of got boxed in... But the upshot of it is that is that if Pedroia can mature quickly — and we at Baseball Prospectus probably like Pedroia better than anyone; certainly better than Baseball America, or anyone else — if he can do that and be a real contributor, that’s gonna make a huge difference.”), and evaluates Coco Crisp (“I think Coco’s gonna be very good, and I think [comparing him] and Johnny Damon, you’re going to have a very hard time telling their numbers apart this season.”)

Etc.
Arroyo sure got his revenge yesterday, eh? Yikes. Too bad, then, that this is untrue. (Uh, April Fools Day isn’t until tomorrow, guys.)

Looks like Oil Can has slipped the surly bonds of Brockton and agreed to a deal with the Nashua Pride, playing for old friend Butch Hobson. (Can’t Ricky get some love?)

But if you can believe your Babelfish, a bigger deal is coming right down the pike. ESPN Deportes is reporting that...

The Dominican toletero David Ortiz is near signing an extension of 50 million dollars with the Red Averages of Boston.... ‘Big Papi’ would gain an average of 12.5 annual million in the seasons from the 2007 to the 2010.

Discussion here is more or less in favor of it, of course, but there are some reservations expressed about laying out that kind of cash for a guy who can’t play the field. Baloney.

That’s a hefty chunk of change, sure. But if there’s anyone they should be overpaying for, it’s him. If we don’t, someone else will. If you need more convincing, ThePhoenix.com web dude Ryan S. whipped up this horrific photoshopped nightmare (Dirt Dog eat your heart out!)

 

‘Nuff said.

3/31/2006 12:30:16 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

* “Major League Baseball will investigate alleged steroid use by Barry Bonds and other players, and plans to hire former Senate majority leader George Mitchell of Maine to lead the effort.”

I’m guessing the fact that Mitchell is also Director of the Boston Red Sox means no one on our team is juicing, right? Pfew! What a relief.

Seriously, as longtime senator from my home state (and a proud fellow Bowdoin alum ... Go U Bears!) I’ve been familiar with Mitchell pretty much my whole life, and he’s a man of integrity and piercing intelligence, and should do a fine job with a sticky task like this one. He’s helped bring peace to Northern Ireland, he’s dealt with problems in the Middle East, he’s even done his part to calm the tumultuous Disney boardroom. So there are few people better equipped to deal with such a complex and entrenched problem.

The only question is how hard he’s willing to push.

* Another seldom-seen Red Sox front office man, another soft-spoken guy with a huge brain and an undying love for the game, is profiled in today’s Globe. The incomparable statistician, founder of Sabermetrics, and Red Sox senior baseball operations adviser Bill James. Some noteworthy quotes:

“I work by obsession rather than by discipline."

''There's a player on our team who we might keep or who we might trade," he generalizes. ''And there's an issue about his performance last year about which we need specific information. The specific information is, do players who have this tendency ever get over it or is it permanent?

''I need to study that, and I need to get that done within a week or two because I need to send it to [general manager] Theo [Epstein] because Theo needs to make a decision. Is this guy going to stay with us or do we involve him in a trade?"

(Who on earth could that be? Lowell? Snow?)

James says he feels welcome to voice his opinions to the front office, but generally waits until someone asks. How important is he to the Sox? ''If I were to drop dead it would be quite awhile before the Red Sox noticed." Do they make moves you don't recommend? ''Yes, sometimes I'm filing a minority report," such as this spring, when James argued vociferously against one player and the Sox invited him to spring training nonetheless.

Even if they don’t listen to everything he says, John Henry’s here-goes-nothing 2002 e-mail, inviting “baseball’s wizard” to work for us is just one more reminder, as if another was needed, that, other past misgivings notwithstanding, when it comes to on-field performance, the right people bought this team:

With or without you, we are going to be building on what you have introduced to the game we love. We have access to great universities. We have access to highly intelligent people who love the Red Sox and thrive on devising strategies. But most of all we have a commitment to the people of New England to bring a world championship to a community that lives and dies daily with the fortunes of their Old Towne Team.

We're engaged in this epic, long-term battle/saga with the New York Yankees. We are determined to achieve what no long-suffering, die-hard Red Sox fan believes can actually happen. Wherever we go across the nation, Red Sox fans come out in large numbers. They're all waiting to be delivered. It's not an exaggeration. Short of war, there has not been a bigger quest since King Arthur's days. We've joined together, we're having a lot of fun and it's just beginning here.

As one SoSHer puts it: “Who says Henry is a mild mannered numbers guy? These are words Winston Churchill would be proud of.”

When you consider that, just a little more than two years after that e-mail was fired off, this was on the cover of Sports Illustrated...

...it really is (as Henry is also wont to say) “astonishing.”

(For further reading, might I suggest the new The Mind of Bill James: How a Complete Outsider Changed Baseball by Scott Gray. I’m only about halfway through, but it’s a great, if slim, biography of the enigmatic man, and a tidy introduction to his epochal ideas.)

* Let's get another trophy. It all starts Monday. The lineup is set. The starters are as ready as they’re gonna be. The manager is satisfied. Play ball.

The odds, by the way, are 10-1. We’re projected for 91.5 wins. C'mon, we can do much better than that.

The Yankees, by the way, are predicted to win 97.5. But according to this New York magazine profile of the MFYs’ new savior, Alex Rodriguez is a bit a more optimistic. “Rodriguez likes a few reporters, and he exchanges win predictions with one before disappearing into the steam. The reporter says 98. A-Rod offers a shake of his head indicating no, and stage-whispers, “One-oh-three.”

Puh-leeze. With this rotation? Not a chance.

The article also has this gem of a quote, from Mr. October:

Before I left Tampa, I asked Reggie what impact Damon might have in the Yankee locker room. He looked at me like I was a slow child. “We know Johnny is a free spirit, but we got him here because he’s a great player, not because he’s a free spirit,” said Reggie. “All that personality and the lighthearted comments? How about hitting .350? How about October? If he doesn’t help us win a championship, he’ll be at the Laugh House in the meatpacking district on open-mike night, and it will be, ‘Here’s Johnny,’ and then Cashman will come out and say, ‘Johnny’s gone.’ ” Reggie started to walk away, then added, “And we’ll bring in a new comedian.”

What a great, fun-loving clubhouse. Have a great time with those naked pull-ups, Johnny!

3/30/2006 1:06:09 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

This just in: Julián Tavárez is completely nuts. (But he’s also cuddly sometimes.)

This rivalry with the Devil Rays has reached epic proportions. Ridiculous. Should make for some fun watching this season. Two blood feuds with AL East rivals! Let just hope no one else gets hurt. And that Tavárez is duly warned that one more incident remotely like this one will see him cut from the team faster than young children run away from his hideous face.

We knew he was a headcase when we got him. No one should be too surprised. But we cannot allow antics like this to affect the team adversely. If he flips out again, we cut him loose and give his job to any of the PawSox kids who could do it almost as well. I thought we were all about character guys?

Etc.
* The good news? We actually won a game. (And don't feel too bad about being so far down in the Grapefruit League standings. The reigning world champs are doing even worse than we are.)

* The bad news? Boomer can bitch about that late start all he wants, but he’s got no stamina yet. He can sure use the extra work in Pawtucket.

* The good news? Foulke, apparently, is good again. (Please, God, let that be true.)

* The ugly news? Randy Johnson is a jerk. And still ugly. And his daughter, who "looks like him," is terribly unlucky.

* Godspeed, Tony Graffanino, and good luck.Thanks for playing here, and thanks for loving it. Sorry things didn’t work out.

* Finally, in honor of Julián "Boom Boom" Tavárez, I looked back on the great Red Sox dust-ups of the last several decades for this Thursday's Phoenix. Couldn’t fit ‘em all in the print edition, but the vast limitlessness of the Internet allows room for the whole glorious list:

Gold Gloves
Red Sox brawls through the ages.

The sight of Josh Beckett jawing at Ryan Howard on Sunday afternoon, followed the very next day by crazy Julián Tavárez clocking Joey Gathright as he slid into home (then standing victorious over his supine form like Ali over Liston) had to make Sox fans chuckle. Only spring training? Someone tell these guys that. Yes, Tavárez is a known nutcase who may well cause further headaches — for the guys he punches and for his own team. And, yes, he should at least have used his non-pitching hand. But it was still pretty funny. Whether this fighting spirit galvanizes the new group of guys, or degenerates into a self-destructive tragicomedy remains to be seen. But with opening bell ... er, opening day less than a week away, we take a look at ten of Boston’s best bullpen-emptying, bench-clearing brawls.

 

5/30/38. Archie McKain & Joe Cronin vs. Jake Powell. After Red Sox pitcher McKain succeeds in plunking Powell in the gut (after first aiming at his head), Powell charges the mound. Shortstop/manager Cronin, an avowed Yankee hater, intercepts him, throwing roundhouses for several minutes in the middle of the diamond — and, after they’re both ejected, under the Yankee Stadium stands.

5/24/52. Jimmy Piersall vs. Billy Martin. Having exchanged heated words in the past, rookie Red Sox center fielder Piersall and Yankees second baseman Martin meet in the tunnel beneath the Fenway stands before game time and quickly come to blows. They’re separated by Boston hurler Ellis Kinder and New York coach Bill Dickey, but Piersall proceeds to heckle Martin vociferously for the entire game. Piersall, of course, was later institutionalized after a nervous breakdown. He also claimed to not remember his rookie season. “Probably the best thing that ever happened to me was going nuts,” he’s said. “Whoever heard of Jimmy Piersall until that happened?”

6/21/67. Jim Lonborg vs. Thad Tillotson. Yanks pitcher Tillotson beans Boston’s Joe Foy. Lonborg returns the favor, hitting Tillotson’s shoulder in his next at-bat. On the jog to first. Tillotson mouths off. Third baseman Foy takes issue: “If you want to fight, fight me.” Opposing armies, led by real-life friends Joe Pepitone and Rico Petrocelli, storm the field. According to RedSoxNation.net, it’s Petrocelli’s brother, a Bronx cop, who helps restore order on the field.

8/1/73. Carlton Fisk vs. Thurman Munson and Gene Michael. Peter Gammons says the “dumpy, stubbled Munson” was jealous of “the chiseled, handsome Fisk.” Pudge may have been good-looking, he was no pretty boy. Gene Michaels’ botched squeeze leaves Munson thundering down Fenway’s third base line, whereupon he crashes into Fisk and tries to lay atop of him so he can’t get rid of the ball. Pudge will have nothing of this. “Fisk had his left arm right across [Michaels’s] throat and wouldn’t let up,” then-Yankees manager Ralph Houk once told Gammons. “All the while he had Michael pinned down, he was punching Munson underneath the pile. I had no idea Fisk was that strong, but he was scary.”

5/20/76. Carlton Fisk vs. Lou Piniella. (Undercard: Graig Nettles vs. Bill Lee). Another classic. This time the Yankee runner who so rudely bumps into Fisk is the one and only Sweet Lou. Pudge responds by smashing his ugly mug with a baseball. In the donnybrook that follows, Yanks’ third baseman Graig Nettles body slams Sox pitcher Bill “Spaceman” Lee to the ground, separating his shoulder. Lee is never the same again. “You take a team with twenty-five assholes and I'll show you a pennant,” goes his famous quote. “I’ll show you the New York Yankees.”

4/23/99. Jaret Wright vs. Darren Lewis. (Undercard: Rheal Cormier vs. Jim Thome) Cleveland pitcher Jaret Wright plunks Darren Lewis in the fifth. Lewis charges the mound. Benches clear. Next inning, Boston pitcher Cormier plunks Cleveland's Jim Thome. Benches clear again. A good time is had by all. Later, All four players are later suspended for at least three games. Wright gets five, and after a similar incident in May is called before American League officials to account for his propensity for headhunting. He now pitches for the Yankees ... sometimes.

8/29/00. Pedro Martínez vs. Gerald Williams. On his fourth pitch of the game, Martínez hits Devil Rays’ leadoff man Williams in the hand. Williams charges the mound, getting in a few punches before being tackled by Jason Varitek. In the melee that follows, Sox players Brian Daubauch and Lou Merloni are injured. When Williams is ejected, he refuses to leave the field. Benches to clear again when he emerges from the dugout in the seventh. Petey responds by keeping his cool and taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning. It’s first blood in the Red Sox’ newest rivalry.

10/11/03. Pedro Martínez vs. Don Zimmer. (Undercard: Karim Garcia & Jeff Nelson vs. Paul Williams) I was in Ireland, getting periodic updates of Game 3 of 2003’ ALCS, when I was told that Pedro had thrown the elderly gerbil to the ground. I figured there must have been something lost in translation. There wasn’t. And the clip will be played before every Sox-Yanks game for perpetuity. Months later, in an ESPN interview, Pedro famously asked “Who is Karim Garcia?” He’s the guy who beat up a Fenway groundskeeper with the help of his teammate, of course.

10/27/04. Jason Varitek vs. Alex Rodriguez. (Undercard: Trot Nixon & Gabe Kapler vs. Tanyon Sturtze.) Well, duh. If you believe some folks, this was the fight that shook a moribund team from its doldrums and turned the Year of our Championship around. I’m not so sure it’s that cut and dried, but it sure was fun to see Varitek rearrange that metrosexual’s face. And Tek’s apocryphal rejoinder to A-Rod before the first punch — “we don’t throw at .260 hitters” — is priceless. Bonus points for this being the game in which Worcester’s own Tanyon Sturtze became a “True Yankee.” Ha! 

4/18/06. Seth McClung vs. Mike Lowell. Sticking up for his boys, the fiery-haired fireballer puts one right between the ribs of “nice-guy” Mike Lowell. Johnny Pesky then emerges from the dugout and dispatches each of the Tampa Bay starting nine with his bare hands. OK, this hasn’t happened ... yet. But if you don’t think retribution is coming when the D-Rays and Sox meet for the first time this season, you’d best think again.

3/28/2006 6:43:34 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

Opening day is, miraculously, less one week away. (Check back here for real-time blogging of the game, Red Sox at Rangers, starting at 1 pm next Monday.)

In the mean time, to get you psyched up for the coming season, might I recommend the 2006 Red Sox Annual, published by Hingham’s Maple Street Press.

Written in conjunction with the smartass smart guys at Sons of Sam Horn, it’s an invaluable handbook for the new-look Olde Towne Team.

Sure, its Bronson Arroyo coverage already makes it a little out of date (and its Dustan Mohr and Tony Graffanino capsules probably mean it will soon be more so). But if you’ve ever wanted the straight dope on what the Red Sox really think about the sacrifice bunt, or what the precise correlation is between the club’s financial wherewithal and the team’s performance on the field, or whether or not Craig Hansen might consider developing a split-finger pitch, this is the book for you.

Among some other highlights:

* Chad Finn takes a detailed look at the strengths and weaknesses of the 2006 roster.

* Aaron Gleeman surveys the rest of the American League competition.

* Brandon Magee heads down on the farm for an up-close look at the Sox’ minor league system.

* Shaun Kelly composes a moving memorial to the great Tony Conigliaro.

* David Laurila conducts insightful interviews with draftees like Hansen and Jed Lowrie.

* Bruce Allen offers an overview of the sprawling Boston sports media landscape.

Elsewhere, retired intelligence analyst Jim Bennett does some numbers crunching, using sabermetric tool of composite rate analysis (CRA) to get at some hard facts about what to expect from Red Sox pitchers and hitters this season. SoSH board member Steve Mastroyin takes stock of the reign of our once and future GM, Theo Epstein. And Stephen Vetere and Jim Walsh offer an intriguing and informative look back on Red Sox elimination games over the last six years.

It’s Maple Street’s first publication, but won’t be their last. More volumes are due this summer. That’s a good thing. It costs $9.95. Order a copy here.

3/27/2006 3:54:57 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [1] |  

“He was jogging after a pop up," Beckett said. ''It's not like I wanted to fight the guy. I wanted to make a point. You look like a jackass whenever you hit a ball like that and you're pimping it and you're out. I'm kind of about respecting the game. Even if it is a home run, I don't think it's the right thing to do.”

Uh, he does realize he’s on the same team as Manny Ramirez, right?

3/27/2006 10:38:12 AM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

On a day spent sweating a deadline, without much time to blog, herewith (to quote the ever-lovable Dan Shaughnessy) some "picked up pieces" after watching the first Red Sox/Yankees game of the year last night.

You know already that the good guys lost Round One.

That Johnny Damon is a Yankee now. (And that maybe he’s finally ready to shut his mouth.)

That when Wily Mo Pena "hits a ball hard he can hit it far away."

That Adam Stern (3 for 5, including a homer and 2 RBI) ain’t too shabby himself.

That David Riske seems to live up to his name.

That Papelbon will presently proceed to the ‘pen.

That Gary Sheffield “injected testosterone and human growth hormone.”

That Tanyon Sturtze is a punk.

That Manny cares more than many 'EEIdiots would have you believe.

Yes, you knew all that.

But did you know that A-Rod, who went 0 for 3 last night, is owed $98.79 million over the next five years, and that the Yankees owe just 10 players, including Johnny Demon, $373.1 million through 2011?

Or that MLB greed might soon mean that fantasy baseball ain't that much fun anymore?

Or that the Red Sox traded good-guy Bronson away because they’re “trying desperately to impress Bill Belichick”?

Or that we’re gonna come in second in the AL East for the 11th straight year but Coco’s going to win the batting title and Papelbon’s gonna come in a close second for rookie of the year?

No? That’s why you should read this blog.

3/23/2006 5:12:08 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [1] |  

Loyal Sox Blog reader that he is, Bronson Arroyo sent this heartfelt goodbye note to let readers know how much he appreciates us all, and how much he'll miss us.

Dear Red Sox Nation,

I think it was Joe DiMaggio who said, “I may have gotten a bad break, but today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth.”

As sad as I am right now, I want to thank Theo for picking me up off the slag heap back in ‘03. If it wasn’t for him taking a flyer, who knows what might have happened? I might be singing Goo Goo Dolls songs in some biker bar in Daytona Beach.

Instead, I got to come to Fenway. Probably the highlight for me was making A-Rod look like a douche on national TV — twice! I swear I wasn’t trying to hit him in that game, but, hey, I was fine with just standing on the mound and laughing when Tek rearranged his face. And then there was the “Slappy” play. That Photoshopped e-mail with the purse? So funny! You can do an awful lot with Photoshop. I’ve tried to tell Aimee that so many times.

There have been some bad times, sure. Tim McCarver calling me “Brandon” over and over kind of pissed me off. It’s Bronson, dude. As in Charles Bronson. Do you have a death wish, Tom? Just kidding!

But actually getting to record an album was a dream and a half. I mean, getting to meet Leland Sklar? For me, that was right up there with winning the World Series. Getting to carry that trophy all over Red Sox Nation? Getting to see places like Brockton and East Millinocket? That was awesome. Like I told Theo, I’d rather pitch out of the pen here than start somewhere else.

Maybe playing for the Reds might not be so bad. I’ll only have to get the “ox” removed from that tattoo I got.

Thanks again for everything. See y’all in interleague....

-Bronson

3/22/2006 5:54:34 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

3/21/2006 9:34:56 AM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

So long, Saturn Nuts...

Hello, Wily Mo.

A very, very interesting trade. And, as with many such transactions, it’s not unclouded by emotion, and the jury may well be out for a full season or more. But I like it.

Some thoughts, none of which are particularly earth-shattering.

Bronson’s potentially skyrocketing music career notwithstanding, we sold high on this one. His K/9 rate has gone way down, from 7.15 in 2004 to just 4.38 last season. (He had 142 strikeouts in ’04, compared to just 100 in ’05, in 25 more innings pitched.)

Meanwhile, his problems against lefties only continued last year. Left-handed batters touched him up for 17 homers (righties only hit 5). They hit .275 (compared to righties' .228) and slugged a whopping .455 (.366) against him.

As someone said on Sons of Sam Horn, “Imagine an important game late in the year in the Toilet, with that short porch in right, and Arroyo having to go three times through Damon, Giambi, and Matsui?. . . . I have zero confidence in Arroyo in that situation, and frankly, if he can't pitch in that spot, he has no business being on the team.”

Do I feel bad that, against his agents’ advice, he took a hometown discount and now, just two months later, we’re sending him packing? Yeah, a little. But Bronson’s a grownup, and he knew this was a possibility. Sure, he seems like a good guy, even if his taste in music is a little lame. He was always willing to pitch, whether a starter or a reliever, and never complained. And he really wanted to be in Boston. But sometimes you’ve just got to make the moves that help the team. That’s not to say he won’t be missed.

Pena is an intriguing player.

His K rate also leaves much to be desired. He struck out 116 times in 311 at bats last year. Not good. As Theo pointed out on WEEI, that’s more frequently than anyone else in the big leagues. But it’s a stat we’re just going to have to get used to.

Because, while his career on-base percentage (.303) is a joke, while the 20 walks he drew last season are piddling, and while, by one metric at least, he’s the worst right fielder in baseball, the dude can rake.

Over the past two seasons he’s hit 45 home runs in 647 at bats. That’s awesome.

And, with most of his success coming against lefties — .276/.347/.536, versus .237/.286/.454 against righties in 2003-2005 — he’s the ideal platoon partner for Trot this season. (And, as seems likely, could take over full time if we don’t resign Nixon in ’07.)

Will he be a malcontent if he doesn’t play every day? Maybe. But, as someone who can do all three OF positions, and therefore could also spell Coco and Manny when need be, he should play as much as possible anyway.

As Theo admitted on the radio, this one’s “a bit of a gamble,” but it’s a trade that brings something to the table now, and potentially means something huge for the future. Take this young (24), big (6’4”, 245 pounds) guy with a lot of power, a "physical freak” who was signed to a major league contract at age 16, a guy who has a lot of tools but barely any minor league ball under his belt, and have him hang around his countrymen Manny and Papi. Let them teach him a thing or two. Then we’ll see what happens.

All things considered, you’ve gotta like this trade. As swell a guy as he was, Bronson was trending downward. And, for all his faults, Wily Mo is young and has a lot of potential upside if he can learn to take a pitch once in a while.

It will be interesting to see how Bronson’s ERA looks after a few months in the National League. We shouldn’t freak out if it gets lower — that would be a natural function not only of facing NL hitters, but guys who are unfamiliar with that sneaky slurve. We also shouldn’t wail and gnash teeth when Wily Mo strikes out for the umpteenth time. We’ll appreciate this trade when he’s bashing 45 home runs a season for us. Maybe. In the mean time, Thanks, Bronson. You'll always be one of the 25. And we'll always have Avalon.

(Get well soon, Johnny!)

3/20/2006 4:10:58 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [1] |  

3/17/2006 3:27:58 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

In order to give it the space it deserves, we’re saving our interview with Baseball Prospectus staffer Steven Goldman, a contributor to BP’s excellent new book Baseball Between the Numbers, for the Phoenix’s Red Sox supplement (which will hit streets right before opening day).

But you should go check out Goldman’s Q&A, “Learning to Think Like Theo,” at the BU Barnes and Noble on Tuesday, March 21.

In Baseball Between the Numbers, the BP brainiacs lift the veil of mystery from Sabermetrics, gearing their lucid essays and number-crunching toward the average fan and, in the process, debunking some commonly held assumptions about the game — that batting order is important, for instance, or that a five-man rotation is preferable to four. Baseball Prospectus is an essential hardball handbook, and the ideas it's formulated have changed the game.

And don’t let the fact that Goldman is the creator of the long-running Pinstriped Bible and Pinstriped Blog pages at the YESNetwork Web site put you off. He was also the editor of the amazing Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning. If the Red Sox hadn’t starting thinking about the game and its statistics in a new way, he says, if they hadn’t hired Theo and taken on SABR founder Bill James as a consultant, that World Series banner probably wouldn’t have been raised last April.

Come ask him about his thoughts for the upcoming season. About whether or not David Ortiz really is a clutch hitter. About whether it’s really true that you can never have too much pitching. About whether it was worth trading Andy Marte to get Coco Crisp. Goldman is a smart dude who knows his baseball. Pick his brain.

That’s at 7 pm on Tuesday, March 21 at Barnes & Noble at Boston University, 660 Beacon Street, Kenmore Square, in Boston.

3/16/2006 12:37:20 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

I was afraid they were gonna make him sweat it out all season.

Did l'Affaire Theo teach 'em a lesson about dragging people along until the 11th hour, or did they just feel guilty that he was the lowest-paid coach in town?

No mention of money in the press release but, says ProJo's Sean McAdam:

3/14/2006 1:26:22 PM by Mike Miliard | Comments [0] |  

Finally got to watch a couple games this weekend, two of the nine that NESN has deigned to broadcast this spring. Aside from the fond summer memories brought back by hearing the RemDawg plugging his book again, it was good to see Jonathan Papelbon setting them down in order yesterday. At least for the first two innings.

No, things weren’t so smooth for him in the third (touched for three runs) and the fourth (two more), as our Mayor’s Cup hopes evaporated in a soul-crushing 6-3 loss to the Twins.

But he’ll be OK. He was just working on some stuff, spotting his fastball and building arm strength. Next time around he’ll concern himself with results.

And after all, according to this Globe Magazine profile by the most excellent Charlie Pierce, Papelbon may just be the next Roger Clemens.

Even if Boston fans won't admit it, there's a part of them that's always been looking for the next Rocket.

It may be Jonathan Papelbon. Or it may not. The blond right-hander looks just as young as Clemens was when he first arrived in Boston in 1984 and just as fresh and eager, which Clemens certainly wasn't by the time he left in 1996. Papelbon won't be 26 until after the season's over, even if the season doesn't end until the last possible day it can. Last July, he was brought up from the minors in an attempt to stabilize a Boston pitching staff that was turning into the Petrified Forest. He made three strong starts that month and next, and then he moved to the bullpen, where throughout September he was the strongest reliever the Red Sox had. He finished the season at 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and twice as many strikeouts as walks. It can be argued that the defending 2004 world champions would not even have made last season's playoffs were it not for Jonathan Papelbon.

Likening Pap to Roger Clemens is a bold assertion. And one that’s been made before. But let’s try to withhold judgment for just a bit. He’s got potential, sure. And poise. And scorching stuff. But a burly body and a Southern twang do not a Rocket make. Let’s see how he pitches this season, whether it's as a starter or reliever, before so easily likening this 25-year-old rookie to perhaps the greatest pitcher ever.

Papelbon fan supreme Curt Schilling was also mowing 'em down in the early going on Saturday against the Pirates, but he also ran into a bit of a rough patch after a stellar first few frames.

After he beaned the Bucs’ Chris Duffy to start the fourth, things got a bit hairy. By the end of the inning, he’d given up four hits on four runs.

When yours truly commented as such in the SoSH game thread — opining that “ever since the beaning he's been pretty much falling apart,” having to throw “more pitches this inning than the first three combined” — none other than the man himself (posting under his handle Gehrig38) took me to task in the hours after the game:

"Falling apart"?
4 runs in 4 innings sucks, but I didn't see or feel a hint of falling apart.... I felt pretty damn good today, command, velocity, and at the plate.......

I stand corrected. Good to hear, big guy.

Schilling of course, has made it known that this season he’ll be working inside a lot more. And hitters had better get used to it. Forcing guys to stay on their toes is a valuable weapon, and he intends to utilize it.

As he notes in his SoSH post, “Bottom line is if you can't get out of the way, it's your fault. Comfort is something I could care less about when it comes to hitters.”

Duffy, not surprisingly, has a different take. "I don't blame Curt Schilling for what happened because I know he wasn't trying to hit me, especially in an exhibition game," Duffy said. "I understand he is working on pitching inside more, but sometimes you've just got to take responsibility. You've got to go about it in a classy way.”

Can’t we all just get along?

Saturday’s game also afforded the opportunity for a first look at much-touted Jon Lester. It coulda been better, shall we say. (2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, including a homer with eight of his first nine pitches out of the strike zone.) But it ain’t no big thing. Quoth Lester: “I'm not worried about this. It'll get fixed."

Meanwhile even doleful Keith Foulke is optimistic. ''I think I'll be a hell of a lot better pitcher than I was in '04,” he tells the Shank. Wow. Talk about bold statements. If that’s even remotely true, than we are in good shape indeed. But that’s a big if.

Anyway, says Schilling: "The 2006 AL East race, to me anyway, is about health of the pitching staffs, period."

Truer words were never spoken.