Pollsters aren't infallible--remember those
woefully inaccurate exit polls back in 2004?--but there's some fascinating stuff in this
new Suffolk University poll on Boston's Nov. 8 city election.
Suffolk's David Paleologos talked to 400 Bostonians who identified themselves as likely voters. Among that group, 58 percent said they favored
Mayor Tom Menino, with 28 percent going for challenger
Maura Hennigan and 14 percent undecided. Remember: four years ago, Menino crushed his challenger, Peggy Davis-Mullen, 73 percent to 23 percent. Compared to the numbers the
Globe put out a few days back, these figures have to be somewhat heartining to the Hennigan camp.
The really good stuff comes later, however. Sixty percent of respondents say they'd support replacing Boston's
appointed school committee (which was the subject of a scathing article in the October 9 Globe) with an elected body. Hennigan, who
backs returning to an elected body, doesn't seem to have gotten much out of this issue during the campaign. But it doesn't look like it's going away any time soon.
What's most striking, though, are the projections for the at-large race. When respondents were asked to choose up to four candidates--just like they will be on Election Day--34 percent picked council president
Michael Flaherty, 31 percent picked challenger
Sam Yoon, and 29 percent went for
Felix Arroyo. Arroyo's been a popular pick to top the ticket this year, but now it looks like Yoon--who nabbed Arroyo's endorsement last month--could end up undermining that goal. It'll be interesting to see just how much help Arroyo lends to Yoon on Nov. 8.
Meanwhile, if Paleologos is right, the race for the fourth slot is too close to call. Twenty-two percent of respondents went for challenger
John Connolly, 21 percent for incumbent Steve Murphy, and 20 and 18 percent, respectively, for challengers
Patricia White and
Matt O'Malley.
Should be an interesting night.