Monday, February 06, 2006
This just in: contrary to early reports, Tom Reilly may not have
secured 15 percent of the delegates at this weekend's Democratic
caucuses.
If so, Reilly's in serious jeopardy.
More to come.
ADDENDUM: Since the caucus system can be a bit confusing, here's a
thumbnail sktech of how it all works. For Reilly to get his name on the
Democratic primary ballot in September, he needs the support of 15
percent of the delegates at June's state Democratic convention. Most
delegates are elected at the caucuses, and most of the caucuses wrapped
up last weekend; when they're completely finished, roughly 3500 of 5300
delegates will have been elected. (You can find a comprehensive list of
caucuses here.)
The remaining 1800 delegates, who'll be named later, will be
ex-officios (1100) and add-ons from three categories: youth,
minorities, and the disabled (700).
If Reilly's under 15 percent when the caucuses wrap up, he could still
make up the difference among add-ons and ex-officios. Furthermore, some
caucus delegates are ostensibly neutral, and all are free to switch
their allegiance before voting at the convention. In other words, a
sub-15 percent caucus showing won't necessarily doom Reilly. But it
could come close. No one wants to be affiliated with a loser, and if
Reilly's hovering around the 15 percent mark, you can bet that plenty
of his supporters will be thinking about jumping ship.
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