Niki Tsongas raised $619,674 in the pre-special-election period (8/16-9/26), with about $200,000 of it after the 9/4 primary by my count. That's less than I expected. Almost all of that post-primary dough was from in-state, just like Ogonowski's.
But Tsongas has raised more than $130,000 since then in large donations (which now must be disclosed pretty much as they come in, thanks to new rules), compared with just $27,000 for Ogo.
By my rough analysis, Tsongas spent roughly $200,000 after the primary through 9/26, had $240,000 in the bank at that point, and raised another $130,000+ since, meaning that she'll spend around $575,000 in the general election plus whatever she raises in these final two weeks.
Ogonowski spent a little over $35,000 from 9/5-9/26, had $220,000 in hand, and raised $25k+ since, giving him roughly $290,000 general-election spending, plus late contributions.
So, Niki will still outspend him 2-to-1 in the general, plus she has the equity from close to $1.5 million she spent in the primary, which included more than a half-million in ad buys.
So far, there seems to be more interest in outside groups spending money for Tsongas than for Ogo, and you're likely to see far more third-party expenditures for her, from the likes of the state Dem. party, DCCC, Emily's List, labor, and others, than you'll see for Ogo -- especially since Ogonowski is being forced to distance himself so much from the GOP.
Tsongas also has a distinct advantage in unquantifiable contributions of the many powerful Democrats and left-leaning organizations in the district helping her out, particularly with phone banking, voter ID, and getting out the vote.
And don't underestimate the advantage of having Kiley polling to work from -- $25,000 worth after the primary.
That's a lot of advantages for Niki -- not surprising, but just a reminder of what Ogonowski is up against.