--I'm not the first to say this, but the idea that an Obama surge takes
independent votes from McCain is mostly a myth. However, the growing
belief that Obama will be the nominee is having an impact. It's hurting
McCain with some Republican voters, who think it would be disaster to
put an old man against the youthful Obama. But others think Obama can
only be beaten by an "experience" candidate. My sense is that there are
more Republicans thinking the former than the latter.
--McCain is also seriously hurt here by the level of animosity the NRA
has toward him over the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform law,
which significantly limits the campaign spending and influence of
groups like the NRA. NRA-influenced voters I've spoken with seem more
willing to forgive Giuliani's and Romney's actual past support of
gun-control laws than to forgive McCain.
--On the other hand, everyone up here really likes McCain, even those
who aren't planning to vote for him. Almost nobody likes Romney... even
the ones who ARE planning to vote for him.
--Ron Paul is doing anti-Romney robo-calls, and they're having some
effect. There's a tipping point, though -- many people here have had it
with the incessant intrusion of the rather zealous Paul supporters.
--Perhaps this is merely anecdotal, but I think it's pervasive: nobody even
pretends that issues have anything to do with their Obama/Clinton decision.
--The great unanalyzed aspect of this year's New Hampshire primary, in
my opinion, is the effect of the November 2006 elections here. Control
of both legislative houses, and both US Congress seats, went from the
state Republicans to the Democrats. That had an enormous psychic effect
on the apparatchiks of both parties, and very real effects on jobs,
power, influence, willingness to take risks, etc. etc. etc. And
remember that the Presidential nominees they're helping to choose
tomorrow could determine the down-ticket offices, including whether the
Democrats retain what they've taken -- and more. I spoke briefly with
GOP Senator John Sununu yesterday, and couldn't help thinking that if
Mike Huckabee is the face of the Republican Party this year, Jeanne
Shaheen is a shoo-in.
--Clinton is far from dead if she loses tomorrow. In fact, you'll
recall that I predicted she would lose Iowa and New Hampshire to Obama
and still win the nomination. Think of Super Tuesday as the start of
the playoffs, when the games start to matter -- both Clinton and Obama
have clinched playoff spots already; they have widespread support and
financial resources. Right now they're playing for position and
momentum.
--Romney is also far from dead, because none of the other Republicans
have clinched the playoffs yet either (although Huckabee is close to
it), so he's far from eliminated -- especially since financial
resources are not an issue for him.
--I foresee a major problem on New Hampshire roadways tomorrow. There
are thousands upon thousands of small signs -- roughly 15"x24", varying
-- each on two skinny metal posts jammed into the roadside snow. This
strange January thaw is melting that snow right out from under the
posts: by mid-afternoon I saw a few down completely on 111, and
hundreds upon hundreds with most of the posts exposed. If tomorrow is
really in the mid- to upper-50s as forecast, especially if the sun
comes out, it's gonna be a mess.
--Speaking of those signs, there is nothing that exposes the careful
science of political marketing more than those things. With very few
exceptions, they are all dark blue with white lettering, and usually a
splash of American-flag red somewhere. They are so similar that the
slightest difference in shading (McCain's blue is slightly different)
or amount of red (Huckabee's has a broader swipe along the bottom)
stands out.