Sorry I haven't had a chance to blog about Mitt Romney's gold-medal
performance in Michigan. It's a big win for a couple of reasons. 1) He
slows the 'OK we're settling on McCain' momentum that swept the GOP
post-NH. 2) He presumably blocks the shifting of his conservative support
in South Carolina to Fred Thompson, thus probably dooming Thompson's
candidacy.
The way I see it, the GOP is now split into three groups:
1) Evangelical voters. They're with Huckabee, and presumably will stick
with him as long as does well enough to seem like a major candidate,
which should last at least through Super Tuesday. Those who leave him
will be split among the other two camps.
2) Moderates and party traditionalists. Moderates (including
independents, where they can vote in the primaries) are only interested
in McCain and Giuliani. Party traditionalists are down to the same
choice, because they see the others as dooming the party's chances in
November.
3) Ideological conservatives and issue voters. They despise McCain (for
his stands on immigration, campaign finance, etc.) and Huckabee (for
his economic populism), and are unlikely to go with Giuliani. Most are
with Romney, but Fred Thompson is going for the same votes. The
question is: how many of them will trade in their ideology for the more
electable McCain?
It seems unlikely now that Fred Thompson will do well enough in South
Carolina to raise the kind of money and attention he would need to
compete on Super Tuesday. That means Romney should lock up that group
going forward.
But if McCain wins South Carolina (likely) and Florida (pretty likely),
then he'll be hard to stop -- even as we head toward more closed
primary states. If Super Tuesday is essentially a
McCain/Romney/Huckabee race, I think McCain will get around 550-600 of
the 1100 delegates that day and be off to the races.
At the least, Romney needs Giuliani to stay alive to win NY/NJ/CT on
Super Tuesaday -- 166 winner-take-all delegates that will otherwise
likely be in McCain's column.