Friday, March 07, 2008

My short, best-guess answers are: No, No, and Yes.

 

Chang-Diaz is an impressive candidate. But Wilkerson has thus far followed through on her end of the bargain she made with her constituents in '06: send me back, and I'll stop screwing up. Wilkerson's strong defense of her constituents' interests in auto-insurance reform and other issues helps her, as does the continuing progress on CORI reform legislation. But perhaps most importantly, the gay-rights community will continued to stand by Wilkerson, who was a crucial ally in killing the amendment ballot-initiative last year.

 

Now, if Wilkerson was to not run, we could have a terrific race between Chang-Diaz and Mike Ross.

 

As for Martin, his latest campaign-finance report confirms that he commissioned a poll from Kiley & Co.; he sure hasn't been acting much as though the results gave him great confidence. I suspect he'll only run if Menino doesn't. And I see no reason to think that Menino won't run -- barring health-related or other reasons arising over the coming year or so.