Thursday, September 14, 2006

No one in politics would waste their money and credibility on that. She is trying to mess around in the Dem Primary and pick Patrick. Par for the course from her and guys like Ron Kaufman.

I think you've got something there, I was thinking that myself. I don't care what the poll numbers say, Republicans know better than to trust polls months away from the General.

Republicans win by doing one thing - and one thing alone: painting a clear picture of who they are and how they differ from their opponents. Meanwhile, Democrats frequently waffle and don't present anything clear - and, worse yet, move to the center in an obvious pandering attempt to secure votes. That turns off voters.

That's what Chris Gabrieli has done thus far, especially on attacking Deval on immigration and tax issues (when Gabs tax position is convuluted and mirky - just what the Republicans love). I really, truly think almost *any* Republican would prefer Gabrieli to Patrick, just so they could paint that brush and let Gabrieli do the mumbling for them.

OK, you're zany.

Here's an instance where conventional wisdom is probably correct: Healy almost certainly wants to run against Patrick because she believes she can easily paint him as a "BIG L" Liberal--her best chance to win. Gabrieli, the thinking goes, would hurt her with conservative-leaning independents. So why would she want to run against Gabs? Give me a reason here, Zany.

Again, I point out the fact that they don't care how liberal or to the middle a candidate is. They'll call them liberal ANYWAY - and when a candidate has a big, muddled plan, no one will know any better because it's either confusing or looks like pandering to the center and not how a candidate really feels.

Healey wants Gabrieli, this is all a ploy. Mark my words.

Think about this logically. Gabrieli has already lost to the Republicans. They know the score with him and know exactly what that playbook will be. Now look at Patrick. They can try the same with him, but the results may end up very different. He has an opposing view that is very popular in this Democratic state. He doesn't pander to the left or right. He doesn't play the games according to the playbook. Who would Healey rather go up against? The guy she knows how to beat or the one who actually has a comeback and depth of understanding when it comes to Republican and Republican lite talking points. It's fairly clear who Healey doesn't want to deal with. It's not Gabrieli.

No no, you guys all have it wrong. See, Healey is using double reverse psychology. She knew she couldn't sneak one by Adam, so she ran the ad because she knew we would all eventually realize Adam's Scenario 3 and vote for CG, thus swinging the election to her prefered candidate, Deval. Either that or it has something to do with Halliburton.

Hahahah. Interesting probability Adam. But, Healey is really playing with a double-edged sword here because most of the polls I've seen show Gabrieli cleaning her clock. It would seem stupid for her to do this. I do think Patrick is the weakest of the bunch so maybe she is doing something smart here. But, it's Muffy. I doubt it.

The last poll gave all three democrats the advantage against Healey and both Patrick and Gabrieli commanding leads. Gabrieli only edged out Patrick by a few percentage points, but they both won by such huge margins it doesn't matter. Plus, it's a poll months before the general and all highly theoretical. I can tell you one thing: Kerry Healey isn't *that* worried about today's polls. She'll be worried about them in a month.

Adam's point isn't Zany, it's something candidates have done in the past and will do in the future. Candidates frequently do shady things like this all the time, especially Repuglicans.

Not so zany, Adam. I also think Healey's hidden motive is to HELP Gabrieli win. Her intervention will tick off some undecided Dems and cause them to vote for Chris just to show her not to mess around in their primary.
Despite Gab as the only Dem who can match her dollar for dollar in the final, Patrick has already proved he can raise a few bucks hmself, will get some help from the state party and is rich enuff to kick in SOME of his money if he has to.
I see him as her toughest Dem to beat because of the excitement he creates, his ability to roll out a bigger-than-usual vote from his base and his attraction to moderate Dems who might not like some his stances but sure as hell want the Corner Office back. Keep on the good work, on this blog and in the paper.
Wayne

Healey will claim she was instrumental in Gabrieli's loss, therefore giving herself more legitimacy for the general election.