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Talking Politics - Your Q, My A


Friday, March 07, 2008


Your Q, My A


In response to my call for questions, "Hoss" writes:

Some Boston politics questions:

- Does Sonia Chang-Diaz have a chance to beat Dianne Wilkerson?
- Will Ralph Martin run for Mayor?
- Will Mayor Menino run for reelection in 2009?

Basic questions, but probably complicated answers.
My short, best-guess answers are: No, No, and Yes.
 
Chang-Diaz is an impressive candidate. But Wilkerson has thus far followed through on her end of the bargain she made with her constituents in '06: send me back, and I'll stop screwing up. Wilkerson's strong defense of her constituents' interests in auto-insurance reform and other issues helps her, as does the continuing progress on CORI reform legislation. But perhaps most importantly, the gay-rights community will continued to stand by Wilkerson, who was a crucial ally in killing the amendment ballot-initiative last year.
 
Now, if Wilkerson was to not run, we could have a terrific race between Chang-Diaz and Mike Ross.
 
As for Martin, his latest campaign-finance report confirms that he commissioned a poll from Kiley & Co.; he sure hasn't been acting much as though the results gave him great confidence. I suspect he'll only run if Menino doesn't. And I see no reason to think that Menino won't run -- barring health-related or other reasons arising over the coming year or so.



Friday, March 07, 2008 4:33:06 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
Thanks for those responses.

I generally agree.

Sonia has a steep, steep hill to climb. If I were advising her, and I am not (although I would be a constitutent), I'd embrace the Change mantra that seems to pervade this year. Make her signs look like Obama's (clean, modern font, play on the "o" in Sonia to look like Obama's "O", etc etc...). It's hard for her to not go negative, though, and have a chance. She needs to remind voters how Dianne can make them feel -- i.e. icky, tired of her shenanigans. But as you say, there haven't been any shenanigans for a while now. (I presume she'll get on the ballot this time around...)

As for Menino, who the heck knows.

Thanks again for your thoughts, this is an interesting concept.
Hoss
Friday, March 07, 2008 5:13:05 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
yes but ....

1. One still rarely sees Wilkerson in the district, and in a smaller turnout primary in September, the antis may hold sway (no Deval to pull turnout up);

2. Ralph will concentrate on the fortunes of the #5 in the Division III Brandeis Judges, for whom he once played. Good luck tonight vs Lasell (men) and Southern Maine (women). It's tournament time.

3. I'm with Hoss .....

Cagey
Saturday, March 08, 2008 7:06:31 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
I would like to have a response from you about the controversy you are involved in regarding the story about Sen. Murray.

Can you please explain why your sources provided you with such bogus information? Don't you think you should tell us who made all these claims which have been proven wrong?

As a journalist you owe it those who read your paper to print the truth even if it contradicts a story fed you by people with agendas to undermine a state senator and a very effective marketing program.
David
Sunday, March 09, 2008 3:35:20 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
>> Does Sonia Chang-Diaz have a chance to beat Dianne Wilkerson? <<

I thought Sonia Chang-Díaz was running as Democrat for Senate? I assumed so because her "official" webpage still has a "button" link for donations:

Here is the Sonia Chang-Díaz 'official' homepage at: http://www.soniachangdiaz.com/

As for Wilkerson; she is undoubtedly a is a bit on the weird and flakey side (i.e. the tax fiasco as well as blaming her inability to 'pay-up' on having to hire bodyguards due to threats). But one thing I will say about DW is that her constituents really like her a LOT and accept her as one of their own in the neighborhoods where she runs.

And as you pasted; the gays like her proven record of sticking her neck out for them, as this something they would definitely NOT easily forget or would be willing to risk supporting a challenger who might not turn out to be up to the task.

>> Will Ralph Martin run for Mayor? Will Mayor Menino run for reelection in 2009? <<

Ralph Martin is another interesting character who always seems to come off as being just a regular guy. I used to enjoy his performances with Emily Rooney on Greater Boston; however it's been a while since I've seen him coverage of him anywhere on the current local news scene.

However his problem is that delivery is often rather dull so if he does actually run; between him putting the news reporters to sleep at press conferences and Tommy needing a speech therapist/interpreter so that the crowds can actually understand what the heck he's talking about; it would likely prove to be possibly the most boring mayoral race in the history of Boston!

Martin might well run perhaps; to increase the level of his public profile but I predict he'll never even come close to - much less win - against the Menino Machine.

I tend to agree with Sal Giarratani of wickedlocal,com that is far more likely; it will be someone of the caliber of either City Councilor Michael F. Flaherty, or maybe City Council President Maureen Feeney to run against hizzonna.

Barring some unforeseen devastating or life-threating medical crisis; I believe Mayor Mineno will run and win (er, I mean be anointed, once again) against any of the potential candidates out there currently.

Mumbles has an incredible ability to effectively deflect even minor troubles (and especially any potential catastrophe) to some other department or blame the media for distorting his possible involvement.
Chop Chop
Sunday, March 09, 2008 10:44:42 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
I truly question whether "the gay vote" went to Wilkerson in 2006. The gay organizations may have lined up with her, but the so-called gay neighborhoods: South End & Jamaica Plain voted heavily for Chang-Diaz. Dianne gerrymadered her district to give her just enough African-Americans to beat back a white liberal or Latino challenger -- but in a low turnout primary we'll have to see what happens.

Michael Flaherty is the only candidate who could possibly beat Menino. He's got a geographic base (which Ralph does not) and provenn city-wide appeal. he'd be an underdog, but isn't it time for a change? Boston needs a new mayor.
Susan
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