Friday, April 14, 2006

1. Because she has no, zip, nada, zilch, zero chance of winning in a Democratic primary. There is a least a non-zero chance of winning in the general election.

2. See answer to question 1.

3. Not that I know of. It's high time they did so. I've been banging that drum for months (e.g.: http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=234)

I do believe that State Rep. Frank Smizik of Brookline led an effort to repeal the 1913 law banning out-of-state gay couples from marrying in Massachusetts a year or two ago, and it got back-burnered for some reason.

1) Why is this woman running as a Republican?

Most Republicans in this state are traditionally more libertarian and run socially liberal. Republican-appointed justices voted for gay marriage in the first place in the SJC decision.

2) Is there any reason to think she'll even make Wilkerson break a sweat this fall?

No.

3) Has any sitting legislator said they'll try to repeal the aforementioned law? If so, who? And if not, why not, dammit?

They should. I'll be contacting my Rep.

~Ryan

1. True, it's nearly impossible to beat an incumbent Democrat in the Democratic primary, but she is a Republican in the Bill Weld model: socially progressive and fiscally prudent. Supports gay rights, opposes death penalty, pro choice. Good to give voters a real choice at the polls in November. Especially a choice that might actually have credibility outside the district on issues that matter inside the district;

2. The only GOP challenger to Wilkerson in the past decade did little more than get her name on the ballot and earned 26% of the vote. It's been a free ride to reelection since then. Dianne's negatives, particularly in wake of the Marie St. Fleur debacle about politicians who support tax increases but don't pay their own taxes, are hovering around 35%. 12% of the district now consists of Latino voters who might be drawn to a Diaz candidacy. That's 47%. Any of the 8% of the Republican voters who aren't already in Dianne's negative column could tickle the total potential vote close to 50%. If Diaz can raise enough money to reach swing voters with her message (she's a very impressive candidate), she could earn just enough support to get to 50% plus 1. Plus, she'll work hard to improve name ID and use the same campaign slogan that Dianne used in her first race against an entrenched incumbent: "We Can Do Better!" Stay tuned about the sweat.

3. Not in any significant respect. Don't forget it was our do-nothing Legislature that ceded the issue of civil unions/gay marriage to the judicial system in the first place. Do you really expect that hubris on Beacon Hill to change in the absence of new faces? Time to give some new folks a chance.