Saturday, January 19, 2008

Paul 4, Giuliani 1

Rudy Giuliani, who led in the South Carolina polls as late as October, finished with a humiliating 2% there, and got just 4% in Nevada -- giving him four sub-5% performances out of five contests. (And probably five out of six -- Wyoming, where he got no delegates, doesn't seem to have released actual vote tallies that I can find anywhere.)

His best showing was 9% in New Hampshire. That's also the only time he beat Ron Paul, who finished with 8%. Giuliani topped Paul there by about 2000 votes.

In fact, Rudy's 4th-place showing in NH is his only finish higher than sixth place. Tallying together Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, we find that Paul has received roughly 75% more votes than Rudy G. -- roughly 105,000 to 60,000.

But hey, it's all about Florida 10 days from now, right?

Going into today, the RealClearPolitics rolling average of polls in Florida had McCain 23%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 18%, Huckabee 17%, Thompson 7%, Paul 5%.

My prediction: Giuliani beats Paul in Florida, but fails to reach double-digits. Anyone disagree?

1/19/2008 11:15:07 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [3] |
Tracked by:
http://independent2008.net/?p=54884 [Pingback]
http://rudy-giuliani.election-blogs.info/?p=3773 [Pingback]
http://ron-paul.election-blogs.info/?p=6027 [Pingback]
http://politics.survivethemedia.com/2008/01/19/paul-4-giuliani-1/ [Pingback]
http://politics.anything08.com/2008/01/19/paul-4-giuliani-1/ [Pingback]
http://republicans.independent2008.net/?p=27568 [Pingback]
http://rudy-giuliani.election-blogs.info/?p=3936 [Pingback]

Sunday, January 20, 2008 1:37:34 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

So very true!

Tony Schinella

Sunday, January 20, 2008 2:17:13 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

RMG beat you to the punch.
http://redmassgroup.com/showComment.do?commentId=8070

obi juan

Sunday, January 20, 2008 8:24:54 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

The winner in Florida gets the GOP nomination. It all comes down to this state, and all four remaining viable candidates are in a statistical dead heat. The last month has meant nothing. Guiliani has as good a chance as any of the other four. A week from now we could all be talking about how brilliant his strategy was or forgetting that he was ever in this race. I am not sure which way it will go, but I'd say there's at least a fifty percent chance for the former.

Patrick

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