Monday, September 18, 2006

That's not really that close, but the Suffolk polls in general have been counter to SUSA, State House and the Globe's for at least a month or more. For starters, they ask the question differently. Instead of "if the vote were today, who would you vote for?" it's more like "who are you leaning towards?" - if I remember correctly.

In any event, people need to work hard for their candidate because clearly this isn't sowed up yet any way. If people stay home that otherwise wouldn't, surprises could happen.

These numbers make alot more sense than the Globe's poll. At least it is consistent with the conversations I have had with people over the past two weeks. Deval hasn't closed the deal, but may win with 40% because of the substantial vote for both Gabs and Reilly. On the other hand it is still possible for Gabs to win with 40% and Deval to get in the mid 30's.

PATRICK / MURRAY CAN WIN IN NOVEMBER

I am Congressman Jim McGovern. This is an incredible forum – I’m impressed!

On the eve of this very important primary election, I want to share a few thoughts.

As many of you know, I was the first Congressman to endorse Deval Patrick for Governor in the Spring of 2005. I have poured my heart and soul into that campaign. While taking nothing for granted, I am optimistic that Deval will prevail in tomorrow’s election – and will change the way we do politics in Massachusetts for the better.

But tomorrow’s election is just the beginning. We must ensure a victory in November – and we can do that by giving our Democratic nominee for Governor the strongest running mate possible. I have no doubt that Tim Murray is that candidate.

I want to win! I’m sick and tired of Mitt Romney and Kerry Healey. I’m sick and tired of the Republican agenda. I’m sick and tired of being sick and tired!

And being from Central Massachusetts, I’m sick and tired of ceding the region to the GOP. Four years ago Shannon O’Brien – a great candidate—lost every single city and town from 495 to Springfield – with the exception of Worcester. If we are going to win in November, that cannot happen again!

Tim Murray will change that. He will provide long-overdue geographic balance.

In addition, he has earned the support of mayors and local officials across the state. They are frustrated with Republican Governors who have no clue about the challenges that face our cities and towns. They want Tim – because, as mayor of Worcester, he knows firsthand about what they’re up against.

Tim has an impressive record of accomplishment. He’s turning Worcester around and he’s bringing people together.

He’s got the strong support of labor and working families throughout the state – and we will need them united and energized in November.

I’ve known Tim for many years. He’s a treasured and loyal friend. But my support for him is about more than friendship. I believe in him. He’s got compassion in his heart and steel in his spine. He has progressive values and a record to match it.

With much genuine respect for the other candidates for Lt. Governor, I strongly believe that Tim Murray is the best candidate to help deliver a Democratic victory in November!

Jim

Wow - 8 points with 13 undecided ... and this after all the Patrick endorsements and the hit piece on Gabrieli in Saturday's Globe. I'm shocked it is still this close but it proves that Gabrieli - who has no real base - is holding his own reaching out to indies and the suburbanites.

I think Gabrieli is absolutely hanging on right now, but I think there is still going to be a convincing win by Patrick.

My prediction:

Patrick - 43%
Gabrieli - 35%
Reilly - 22%

Reilly's inept campaign will bite him in the numbers for this primary.