Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Romney Leads South Carolina?

I ignored the September American Research Group poll showing Romney leading in South Carolina, because it just looked too much like an error: nobody jumps from single digits to 26% in a month. Plus, the same poll had Fred Thompson plummeting from the mid-20s to 10% at the same time. Couldn't be.

Well, ARG's October SC poll purports to show the same dynamic: Romney 29%, Giuliani 23%, McCain 13%, Thompson 10%.

A couple of other SC polls -- Rasmussen and Insider Advantage -- in late September/early October showed Romney jumping to 15 and 16 percent. That's significant movement. But 29%? (The ARG polls are also the only ones that have Fred Thompson below 20%.)

So I'm passing the news along about Romney's apparent stunning surge in SC, but I still say it looks fishy to me.

10/30/2007 11:34:04 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 4:17:21 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Willard Mitt Romney seems to be using a "domino theory" as a route to the GOP Presidential nomination. He's invested heavily in advertising and organizational work in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina - and add Florida and Michigan into the mix. Romney's plurality in August's Iowa Straw Poll is attributable to his spending big bucks and having large buses to transport supporters to caucus sites. Interesting how Michigan maneuvered itself into a January 15 primary - a date after Iowa, before South Carolina and Nevada. Romney's a Michigander born-n-bred, one whose presidential campaign is based in Michigan and son of George, a thrice-elected governor and failed GOP 1968 presidential primary contender. Could Romney have influenced the state GOP's decision to move up the date? Effect of Romney's Mormon faith as a factor would likely be tested in South Carolina moreso than in any other early primary/caucus state.

LorenzoJennifer

Wednesday, October 31, 2007 10:50:06 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Yes, the Mormon factor. Romney will score only 25% instead of the 32% he'll get in New Hampshire.

No man is a prophet in his own country.

Peter Porcupine

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