Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Exclusive: Clinton & Romney Lead CA Poll, Barely

A statewide California poll conducted by EMC Research this past weekend shows big changes heading into today's critical biggest-of-the-big primary.

Mitt Romney has overtaken John McCain, leading 36% to 32% among likely Republican voters. Huckabee trails with just 11%.

A win in California -- where GOP delegates are doled out on a district-by-district basis -- could rejuvenate Romney's sagging hopes for the nomination, by offsetting McCain's expected victories in winner-take-all states like New York.

Just three weeks earlier, the same poll showed McCain with a substantial lead, which narrowed to six percentage points two weeks ago, as reported by the Phoenix.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton's lead has shrunk from 11 points to just three, 41% to 38%, as Barack Obama has picked up the bulk of supporters of John Edwards, who has dropped out of the race.

Both leads are within the poll's margin of error, and the poll found a substantial 13 percent undecided for each of the contests.

2/5/2008 2:38:06 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |
Tracked by:
http://politics.anything08.com/2008/02/05/exclusive-clinton-romney-lead-ca-poll-... [Pingback]
http://politics.survivethemedia.com/2008/02/05/exclusive-clinton-romney-lead-ca-... [Pingback]

Tuesday, February 05, 2008 3:51:19 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

If the differences between the two candidates are within the poll's margin of error, then there is no such thing as one of them having a lead over the other.

Instead of saying "Hillary Clinton's lead has shrunk from 11 points to just three," the accurate statement is "Hillary Clinton's lead has disappeared into a dead heat within the margin of error."

Likewise, "Mitt Romney has overtaken John McCain" should be replaced by "Mitt Romney has caught up with John McCain into a statistical dead heat."

Michael Pahre

Comments are closed.