Poll: Americans See Gloom, Doom in 2007

by Darlene Superville, Associated Press Writer

"...findings of an Associated Press-AOL News poll..."

 

or, if you prefer:

 

AP Poll: Americans Optimistic for 2007

by Nancy Benac, Associated Press Writer

"...an AP-AOL News Poll finds..."

 

 

12/31/2006 7:35:27 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Talk of the Neighborhoods, the weekly BNN talk show hosted by Joe Heisler, has launched a political blog: check it out.

Heisler is one of Boston's true good guys, and his show is one of the few places to see local movers and shakers (and, on occasion, me) talk political shop. I'm sure the blog will be well worth reading.

12/29/2006 3:43:32 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Mitt Romney's inaugural party four years ago (from what I read) featured the Boston Pops, led by Keith Lockhardt, playing Olympics music and other patriotic standards, in addition to safe, white-bread dance music. The Celtic Clan played, as did an African drum troupe, so there was a little multi-culti thrown in.

Deval Patrick's inaugural next Thursday will be, shall we say, a little more groovy.

The five feature performers announced today are all "of color," as they say: Patti Austin, Eguie Castrillo with his Mambo Kings Orchestra, Yo Yo Ma, Herb Reed and the Platters, and Walter Beasley.

The press release includes an additional list of names and organizations that will appear at the various inaugural events next week; check the web site for details.

12/29/2006 11:40:17 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

I hope you appreciate my dedication in perusing the conservative blogosphere for you. Today I can report that Mitt Romney has been in heavy rotation the last couple of days, as his newly-hired blogger-outreach man, former Bill Frist aide Stephen Smith, is hard at work prepping for the big campaign launch. Romney just did a Q&A with HumanEvents.com editor Robert B. Bluey, for example.

But Romney has not yet won over Human Events columnist Armstrong Williams -- yes, that Armstrong Williams -- who plans to vote for Rudy Giuliani. Or, so he said in his somewhat confused 2008 Presidential predictions column yesterday.

For the Democratic nomination, Williams predicts "a photo finish horse race between Clinton and Gore for the nomination" resulting in "The Democratic winner: Al Gore." On the other side, "The Republican winner: John McCain." To recap, "So, the way I see it, in November 2008, you will have a choice of John McCain or Al Gore as the next U.S. president."

But then, in a surprise twist, he ends with this prediction: "I believe the Democratic charge will not let up and Barack Obama will be our 44th president."

12/28/2006 1:16:00 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

In tomorrow's issue, online now, I look at signs that the national Democratic Party may be entering a period of political ascendancy. Check it out: "It Wasn't A Dream: Why the future looks bright for the Democratic Party."

12/27/2006 3:39:09 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

NH Insider posted an online poll today of Republican Presidential Primary contenders. The 11 candidates listed do not include a certain Massachusetts governor. Oops! I'm sure that was just an oversight.

12/27/2006 11:17:56 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

This past Sunday, Globe columnist Jeff Jacoby -- cribbing from a May 2006 "report" of the right-wing-funded Media Research Center -- pooh-poohed global warming as just another media-driven climate scare.

So, I wonder what Jacoby makes of today's front-page story in the Washington Post, which begins:

The Bush administration has decided to propose listing the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, putting the U.S. government on record as saying that global warming could drive one of the world's most recognizable animals out of existence.

And this quote from a Department of Interior official:

"We've reviewed all the available data that leads us to believe the sea ice the polar bear depends on has been receding.... Obviously, the sea ice is melting because the temperatures are warmer."

12/27/2006 9:56:05 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

The Supreme Judicial Court will issue its ruling on the Doyle case at 10:00 this morning, I'm told. This is the one in which Mitt Romney is asking the court to force the legislature to vote on the marriage initiative.

I'm no legal scholar, but I would be surprised if the court found that the plaintiffs have any recourse, regardless of the judges' interpretation of the statute.

In any event, my prediction is that this is all moot. From conversations I've had since the ConCon recessed on November 9, my sense is that Trav fully intends to hold a vote when the ConCon reconvenes next week.

Although, maybe all this name-calling and lawsuit-filing will cheese him off enough that he changes his mind and buries it just for spite.

Nevertheless, my predictions are no intervention by the SJC, but a floor vote next week anyway.

Update: Well, it appears I'm right on the first part. The SJC has ruled that it has no power to force the legislature to act.

12/27/2006 9:42:13 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |  

Herewith, a few bits and pieces from the last few days.

--A couple of different projections, using the new 2006 US Census numbers, both predict that Massachusetts will lose at least one congressional seat from reapportionment, which will take place after the official 2010 census. No surprise there.

--Mitt Romney's distant-third-place showing in new Iowa and NH polls has been reported as bad news for him, but I have a different interpretation. Romney's short-term goal is not to catch Giuliani and McCain (or even Gingrich) in the polls -- their name-recognition alone makes that impossible for the moment -- but to stand out from the other second-tier wannabes. So far, he's clearly succeeding in a huge huge way. The poll of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers has Romney at 9 percent, while Pataki, Brownback, Huckabee, Thompson, and Hagel each failed to get past 1%. The New Hampshire poll had very similar numbers.

--Deval Patrick named his Transportation secretary Saturday, continuing his policy of making appointments at times when they will get little public scrutiny. It also continues a trend of floating one name for a position in the press and then naming someone else. (In this case, Jim Aloisi was floated.)

--The new (Jan. 1) issue of The New Republic has a very bad likeness of Mitt Romney on the cover, imposed before a Mormon church with the headline: "A Mormon in the White House? Why Religion Matters." The article is by Damon Linker, author of The Theocons: Secular America Under Siege, so you know where he's coming from. Unfortunately, Linker's article is pretty useless as an examination of whether Romney's religion actually matters -- his main concern is that since the president of the Latter-Day Saints is considered "the mouthpiece of God on Earth," Romney theoretically would be obligated to follow any of that president's crazy orders, meaning that, if Romney takes his religion far more seriously than his country, and if the Mormon leaders suddenly and uncharacteristically decide to start giving such orders, "under a President Romney, the Church of Latter-Day Saints would truly be in charge of the country." That's not much help in any serious debate. But it is a potential insight into the way Mitt's opponents might try to use the issue. So are some of the wacky Mormonisms that Linker trots out, such as the LDS dismissal of all Christianity between Christ and Joseph Smith as "apostasy," and Smith's revelation that the Garden of Eden was located in Jackson County, Missouri.

12/26/2006 1:55:20 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [4] |  

A "top advisor" to Mitt Romney outlines the Guv's Presidential-announcement plans for the AP's Glen Johnson today. (What, you thought he'd tell the Globe?)

Here's the to-do list:

Jan 2: File paperwork creating Presidential committee -- because yes, it really would kill him to wait two more days until his term ends.

Jan. 4: Leave office. (Reminder: first must arrive at office.)

Week of Jan. 8 (other reports have specified Jan. 9): Hold ceremony to officially announce candidacy.

Not much new here, actually. And the advisor says that this is dependent, of course, on the final decision supposedly to be made by the family during Mitt's upcoming 10-day vacation (vacation from what, exactly?), and subject to change if John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, or other bad news cramps the prefered announcement date.

12/22/2006 4:00:00 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

There's one good thing for Mitt Romney about all the attention being paid to his 1994 "Summer of Gay Love" and other youthful ideological indiscretions. It's kept everybody from noticing this lead sentence in yesterday's AP story out of Iowa:

"Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said he supports the way President George W. Bush has carried out the war in Iraq."

This puts Romney in agreement with 28 percent of Americans, according to a CNN survey released Monday.

12/22/2006 3:18:54 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Roll Call is reporting, in full:

Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) has relinquished his position as co-chairman of the Senate Centrist Coalition, halting talks with co-chairwoman Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) over the future of the organization in favor of creating his own bipartisan group with Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.).

Once again showing that in Joe's world, there's no problem that can't be solved by quitting and starting a new game.

12/21/2006 2:35:58 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Mitt Romney has brought two members of the Christian Right onto his Presidential campaign team, according to Hotline On Call. The big name is Jay Sekulow, a converted Brooklyn Jew who was named one of America's 25 most influential evangelicals by Time Magazine. Sekulow is chief counsel for the Pat Robertson-founded American Center for Law & Justice, where he handles cases about getting bibles into schools and anti-abortion protestors in front of clinics.

Sekulow has endorsed Romney and will serve as an advisor tothe campaign, according to Hotline. This helps shore up Romney's right flank on the gay marriage issue -- Sekulow helped author the 2006 federal Defense of Marriage Act. He's an especially good get for the Mittster because Sekulow's daily radio program airs on some 550 stations, reaching an estimated 1.5 million listeners.

The other new Romney advisor is Gary A. Marx, a Sekulow protege -- and Bush/Cheney '04's liaison to social conservatives -- who is executive director of the fairly young Judicial Confirmation Network, which was basically created to push the so-called nuclear option of dismantling the Democrats' ability to filibuster right-wing judicial nominees.

And, who prevented that nuclear option from happening? Why, the famous "Gang of 14" moderate Senators, including Romney opponent John McCain.

12/21/2006 11:44:21 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |  

The Massachusetts Republican Party is looking for a new chairman, to replace outgoing Friend of Mitt Darryl Crate. But of perhaps greater interest to Romney is the race for chair of the New Hampshire GOP, where Wayne Semprini is not running for re-election to the post for medical reasons.

The state party chairman traditionally remains neutral in the Presidential primary, but can nevertheless be a powerful friend -- or enemy -- in many ways. So it will be interesting to follow the fate of Manchester state rep. Will Infantine, who announced Monday that he is running. Infantine, who also runs an insurance agency, has been on board with Romney's Commonwealth PAC and Presidential steering committee, and was expected to have a role in the Presidential campaign.

Of course, the NH GOP has a lot more to worry about than Presidential politics -- it has to figure out how to bounce back from the monumental whuppin' it took on November 7, when the Democrats took control of both legislative chambers and stole both congressional seats.

Infantine is the third candidate for the Jan. 27 election, joining another state rep., Fran Wendelboe of New Hampton, and Wolfeboro businessman Fergis Cullen.

12/21/2006 9:15:51 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

It's not a Talking Politics column, but I have an article in the new issue, online now:

The Year Women Got Beat Up
Over the past 12 months you have been bombarded with stories of brutalized women. Chances are, you didn’t notice.

12/20/2006 4:57:05 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

Breaking news, as they say, just broken by the Dorchester Reporter. Maureen Feeney joins John Tobin, whose candidacy I broke in this story, and current Boston City Council president Mike Flaherty vying for the post.

Maybe there's so much competition because of the killer view the council president's office is sure to have in the new waterfront City Hall.

Feeney told the Reporter that she "already had the support of some councillors, but declined to reveal whom."

Feeney would be, amazingly, the first woman to lead the council.

Update: Yes, it would be amazing -- if it were true. But in fact Louise Day Hicks was president of the city council, as I have been reminded.

12/20/2006 4:44:53 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |  

The Denver Post is reporting that the Democrats will now postpone their decision on their 2008 national convention -- Denver vs. New York -- until after the new year. Denver's hopes have hit a big snag, not just because Hillary Clinton wants it in NYC, but because of the threat that the local Denver stagehands' union might strike. (Apparently Denver's Pepsi Center, where the convention would be held, is not union-friendly.)

Congressional Quarterly takes the opportunity to remind us of Boston's own troubles when hosting in '04:

Though the party is closely allied with the organized labor movement, Democratic officials have less than fond memories of a labor dispute between Boston officials and the local police union that complicated preparations for the party’s 2004 convention in that city. Union officials did not drop their threat to picket the Democratic convention site until that June, when prospective nominee John Kerry refused to cross a police picket line to attend a Boston meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

12/20/2006 10:05:56 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

In recent days I've been looking at gloomy reports on the Massachusetts economic-growth and labor-supply outlook from MassInc. (link doesn't seem to be working), and from Massachusetts Technology Collaborative, and thinking about the tough job the Patrick administration has ahead of it.

Then, I see a report released today in the Bulletin of Cannabis Reform, in which Massachusetts ranks a lowly 44th among US states in total marijuana cultivation. According to the study's author, who claims to be using US government data, the state's entire annual pot crop is valued at a mere $20.3 million. Maine, which ranks in the middle at 25th, grows six times as much, at a value of $122.8m.

Am I wrong to see an opportunity here for a targeted economic-stimulus package?

12/19/2006 6:20:57 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

In 2000, you could be dubbed a "Pioneer" if you raised $100,000 for George W. Bush, usually by getting 100 close friends to each give $1000. In 2004, you could again be a Pioneer, or shoot higher for "Ranger" status by raising $200,000.

John Kerry did the same thing in '04, as did Howard Dean -- but they didn't have good names for their big donor levels. And, did they become President? See what I'm getting at?

Rudy Giuliani is no dummy. Roy Bailey, finance chair for Giuliani, tells the Houston Chronicle that he's planning multiple tiers of donors, using a baseball theme: "We'll have team captains, sluggers, all-stars and MVPs."

If Mitt Romney wants to compete, he needs a theme for his big donors. My guess: he harkens back to the Winter Olympics, and makes his bundlers Gold, Silver, and Bronze Medalists.

12/19/2006 4:21:39 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [3] |  

Several annoucements on staff just now from Deval Patrick:

--Nancy Fernandez Mills, Deputy Chief of Staff/Communications Director. Mills has a media background and no readily apparent governmental experience, so chalk up one outsider.

--Richard Chacon, Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs. Chacon was communications director on the Patrick campaign, and was a fine journalist at one time.

--Kyle Sullivan, Press Secretary. Sullivan is poached from house speaker Sal DiMasi's staff -- hey, steal from the best!

--Cyndi Roy, Deputy Press Secretary. She's been the communications director for the Mass. Democratic Party, and then the spokesperson for the Patrick transition (and before that a reporter), so you figured she was going to fit into this team somewhere.

--Mike Morris, Director of Governmental Affairs. Morris comes from Treasurer Tim Cahill's office, so he knows the ins and outs of the State House.

--Christy Mach, Director of Scheduling. Mach was on the campaign team, joining up after serving as campaign manager for Andrea Silbert.

12/19/2006 3:03:32 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Adding to my previous post, we can now say that Patrick's team seems to be unleashing a flurry of appointments over the weekend, so that no individual will get any great public scrutiny.

The latest, announced this afternoon, are Harvard/Brigham & Women's JudyAnn Bigby as secretary of health and human services, state rep. Dan Bosley as special advisor on economic development, and Ann Berwick as undersecretary for energy.

These strike me initially as picks that will make progressives happy, but I'll reserve further comment until later.

12/17/2006 4:57:48 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Statehouse News reports today that Deval Patrick will name former state representative Suzanne Bump secretary of labor and workforce development. Yesterday, of course, he announced Ian Bowles as secretary of energy and environment, and Dan O'Connell as secretary of housing and economic development.

Statehouse News says that more personnel announcements are expected this afternoon.

Talking Politics will grade the appointments later, and will also have a thing or two to say about Patrick's rearrangement of the cabinet.

But for now I'll just point out the timing of these long-awaited personnel announcements. Not only is Patrick already engaging in the time-tested trick of burying announcements on Friday afternoons, but it seems awfully coincidental that this flood of cabinet announcements started immediately after his transition team working groups finished their public meetings. It was almost as if he didn't want, for instance, people at the workforce-development meetings to have a chance to talk openly about Suzanne Bump being named secretary, and so on....

 

12/16/2006 1:53:17 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

As you may know, some bloggers have been annoyed with a recent New York Times article about bloggers who take money from political campaigns. Earlier this year there was a similar dust-up over aspersions about Markos Moulitsas, of Daily Kos, and his association with Jerome Armstrong, who left his MyDD site to work for Mark Warner, and about the disclosure of information about a regular Kos diarist.

Now comes the spectre of political campaigns conducting opposition research on political bloggers. This started Wednesday with a claim by Virginia blogger Shaun Kennedy that the campaign of Senator-elect Jim Webb, a Democrat, did oppo research on bloggers in the state, including both left- and right-wingers.

Whether Kennedy’s allegations are true, it hardly seems surprising -- and if candidates haven’t been doing it, they will. After all, some bloggers originate new stories and information about candidates, that become part of the campaign, requiring a response. The credibility of the story’s source is obviously one aspect of that response. In this time of rapid-fire spread of information, rapid response is often critical, so a campaign will want to have the relevant background info on the blogger at hand, and that requires advance oppo research on the ones most likely to break a story (and to have that story spread).

And, since your opponent is sure to do the same to bloggers sympathetic to you, you’ll want to be ready with research to defend them. Or, if some bloggers have real problems in their background, you’ll want to avoid cozying up to them.

The issue raised by Shaun Kennedy’s allegations has been buzzing around the last couple of days, but has not yet reached the mainstream bloggers (if I may use such a term), but I suspect it will. I’ll be interested to see which bloggers will see this as an acceptable price of being taken seriously, and which will view it as an unreasonable intrusion on their privacy.

12/15/2006 12:37:09 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [4] |  

Here are a few Romney items that passed by while I was not posting yesterday:

--The horserace numbers from the new Washington Post/ABC News political poll aren't that interesting, but it is striking that Mitt Romney has a net negative favorable/unfavorable figure: 22 percent have an favorable opinion of him, 24 unfavorable, and 54 no opinion. Sure, this is before he has a chance to get out and pitch his "Mr. Olympics" storyline to the public (and was asked of all respondents, not just Republicans), but one of his main attributes has always been his general likability, so this is has to be a little disconcerting. On the positive side, he was one of just eight politicians they picked to survey on likability -- and one of just three Republicans, along with McCain and Giuliani -- so that tells you how seriously he's being taken.

--Hotline says that Romney's people are being told to tentatively expect a January 8 announcement of his Presidential candidacy.

--At the end of a National Review Online Q&A, which has gotten attention for other reasons, Romney was asked what he's been reading. My former colleague Dan Kennedy will be pleased to hear that one of Romney's "current favorites" is America Alone, the new book by Kennedy's nemesis Mark Steyn. The others are The Cube and the Cathedral by George Weigel, The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright, The Places in Between by Rory Stewart, and The Life and Times of the Thunderbolt Kid by Bill Bryson.

12/15/2006 9:07:55 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |  

In tomorrow's issue of the Phoenix (but online now!) I have an article looking at Deval Patrick's relationship with the state's labor unions. Did the money they spent getting him elected put him in their pocket, or did they come too late to the table?

Also an item on Mitt Romney's PAC contributors. He may be courting the social conservatives, but the checks are coming from financial-industry folks in the blue states. I don't have that link yet.  Update: Here's that link.

12/13/2006 4:21:01 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Over the past couple of days a mini-tempest has whipped up. The gist of it is: a few leaders of the Massachusetts Alliance of College Republicans (MACR) -- but not the group itself -- endorsed John McCain for President, in an obvious attempt to embarrass Mitt Romney.

This appears to be the doing mainly of MACR chairman Michael Miltenberger, a Harvard junior. Miltenberger, incidentally, is one of the college students who were paid by anti-gay-marriage zealots to canvas for a Republican state rep candidate in Kingston/Plymouth last month, as I reported here.

On Monday, the conservative and anonymous TruthCaucus blog (which is not affiliated with the College Republican National Committee and accordingly had to change its name from CRNCTruthCaucus, and which also happens to insult Mitt Romney pretty regularly) had the scoop that MACR leaders were about to endorse McCain. Soon after, it happened. The next morning, Hotline, the daily political report read religiously inside the beltway, reported the endorsement, and it quickly made the rounds. Later Tuesday, an anonymous MACR board member (and there aren't that many) sent out an email blasting Miltenberger as an ambitious self-serving twerp, and calling for his resignation. The Hotline's blog today has the email.

 

 

12/13/2006 1:16:59 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

What do the five words in this post's title mean? You tell me -- they're on the side margin on every page (except home) of Deval Patrick's new Inauguration Web site.

But wait, there are more vaguely inspiring words all over that blue background of the site. Lifted away, the words are "Gather Talk Respect Collaborate Share Debate Challenge Listen Learn Explore Join Understand Work Hard Celebrate Feel Trust Compromise Collaborate." And repeat.

I've never been a fan of those vacuous, empty-platitude worksite posters with these kinds of buzzwords. Given that many of us are waiting to see whether Patrick proves to be more than just good campaign-trail rhetoric, these words hanging around the inauguration site -- which I realize someone probably just picked off a template menu without much thought -- rubs me the wrong way.

Could just be me.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/12/2006 6:50:14 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

From the Caucus Cooler, here's an excerpt from a memo that Mitt Romney's people in Iowa have apparently been sending out, in response to McCain's people faxing around the NY Times article about Romney's 1994 gay-lovin' campaign:

As you may know, an article is being circulated today by supporters of Sen. John McCain as an attempt to mislead voters about Governor Mitt Romney's unwavering support for traditional marriage. In fact, his record of defending marriage is unassailable, and frankly is unmatched by any other political figure in America.

Governor Romney has NEVER supported civil unions or gay marriage -- not only has he not supported it but he has been THE champion battling to preseve traditional marriage on the frontlines. He does believe, however, that we should be a tolerant nation. America is not a punitive, mean-spirited, or bigoted country.

Personally, I don't think Romney has a flip-flop problem on this one (as opposed to abortion, where he does). His potential political problem here is that he doesn't care much about homosexuals one way or the other, except as a political tool, which makes him look weak on this issue to those who ARE punitive, mean-spirited, and bigoted. How much he needs their votes in the GOP primaries is an open question.

12/12/2006 5:24:30 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

Fans of the legendary Granny D will want to know that she has endorsed former Senator Mike Gravel for President. Sure, it's early in the campaign, but when you're 96 you don't put things off, you know?

Gravel, who was Senator from Alaska many years ago, has pretty much camped out in New Hampshire since declaring his long-shot candidacy in April. Granny D, as many of you know, once walked coast-to-coast to protest the influence of big money in politics. Her subsequent campaign for US Senate was covered by my colleague Adam Reilly.

Gravel, by the way, was born in Springfield, Massachusetts. He's really, really unhappy with the Iraq War, wants universal single-payer health care, and wants to replace the IRS with a national sales tax. (That last one kinda whacks you, huh? It's like Kucinich, Kucinich, Kucinich, wham! - Steve Forbes!) Learn more at his campaign web site.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/12/2006 4:59:14 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

For those tired of the convenience of having city hall located in the heart of downtown, a stone's throw from three of the four T lines, Mayor Menino now wishes to relocate it to a spot accessible only via the Waterfront Silver Line.

But think of the view from the Mayor's office!

[David S. Bernstein]

12/12/2006 12:31:40 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |  

The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich will announce his candidacy for President tomorrow morning. His previous Quixotian quest was well-covered by my colleague Adam Reilly, most notably in these two features from early in the campaign in October 2003 and near its end in June 2004.

That campaign was most memorable for the odd "Win a Date with Dennis Kucinich" episode, which presumably won't reoccur now that he's remarried.

Of course, he really did oppose the Iraq war wholeheartedly from the start, so I guess that earns him a round of "told you so" debate appearances.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/11/2006 5:44:33 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

I realize that everyone's lathered up about Romney's 1994 "I Heart Gays" letter, but there's another little thing he missed while touring Asia: the release of the Iraq Study Group report.

This has quickly become extremely divisive among Republicans, who almost all seem to reject the ISG report, but in different ways. McCain, of course, has staked out the "send in more troops" position, so Romney can't go there now. Romney, to this point, has pretty much offered a "what W. says, but less incompetently" strategy, which has served just fine. But, no more.

I think Romney needs to speak up about what he would do with Iraq soon, or else lose a lot of credibility on the right. My guess is that he will start by following this lead, ie, focusing on how we should not negotiate with the evil Iranians and Syrians.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/11/2006 4:24:44 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

In my recent article about Deval Patrick's potential New Hampshire dilemma, I wondered how he would negotiate the New Hampshire vs. Nevada controversy -- that is, how to support NH's desire to hold its primary before Nevada's caucus, while endorsing the Democratic Party's desire to give racial minorities a greater say in the nomination process.

Well, Barack Obama got the question over the weekend in an interview with the Union Leader, and showed how to have it both ways. He said that he will support the NH primary if they move it up, in defiance of the DNC. But he also said that he thought the early Nevada caucus is a "great idea."

Will that double-talk work? We'll see. But anyone who doubted the importance of the issue in the Granite State should take note that the Union Leader made this the lead of the article from their interview with Obama on his first trip to New Hampshire. Patrick had better be practicing his own answer, because I guarantee you the question is coming.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/11/2006 8:45:14 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

To give you some reading material on this wintry weekend, I've selected some new items from right-wing think tanks that you might want to peruse.

First, from the new magazine of the American Enterprise Institute, an interesting article by Matthew Rees about our man Mitt, titled Mister PowerPoint Goes to Washington. It's overly fawning, but gives a pretty good sense of Romney the businessman.

You have every right to be wary of a panel discussion at The Hudson Institute titled "How Vast the Left Wing Conspiracy," but the transcript turns out to be a chance for Rob Stein of Democracy Alliance and Gary LaMarche of the Soros Institute to talk about what they're trying to do.

The free-market Pacific Research Institute takes a pretty in-depth look at the new Massachusetts health-care reform plan in a white paper called "Questionable Cure for a Questionable Crisis." Although you might (as I do) disagree with the Institute's core assumptions, this is no screed; it's a serious analysis worth reading.

And finally, for the net-heads, a short essay from the Progress and Freedom Foundation, "Net Neutrality and the Role of the States." (And, if you're feeling more ambitious, PFF has posted a slightly dated but still interesting transcript of its CEO luncheon featuring Sen. Ted Stevens and others.)

Happy reading!

[David S. Bernstein]

 

 

12/9/2006 2:45:28 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

In the new Insider's Poll from National Journal, Mitt Romney ranks as second-most likely to get the 2008 GOP Presidential nomincation, behind only John McCain. The periodic poll of top influential political insiders is always buzz-worthy, and will give Romney ammunition in arguing that he is, indeed, becoming the last viable candidate for anti-McCain Republicans.

On the Democratic side, Hillary gets the top spot. John Kerry failed to make the top 10. Ouch!

[David S. Bernstein]

12/8/2006 10:54:01 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [2] |  

Calm down over there in Meffah -- despite what FOX News would have you believe, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson did not declare his candidacy for President in an interview with the network yesterday. I checked the clip, and he actually said, approximately, "...blah blah blah blah I'm running blah blah blah...." FOX plucked out the two words and tried to turn it into a big scoop. (Not that it's exactly a big scoop, anyway.)

Richardson, of course, is a graduate of Tufts undergrad and the Tufts Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

Richardson is expected to make a decision next month; the excitement can be felt, I'm sure, all the way from Powderhouse Circle to Hillside.

Meanwhile, Harvard's candidates are dropping out faster than first-year law students: Bill Frist (Harvard Medical School), Russ Feingold (Harvard Law), and Mark Warner (Harvard Law) have all declared themselves non-candidates. Al Gore, who got his BA from Harvard, has repeatedly said he's not running, but some think he still might.

Which left all the Crimson's hopes riding on Business & Law grad Mitt Romney -- until Barak Obama (Harvard Law) started testing the waters.

Yale, which granted diplomas to the winners of the last five elections (Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, and Bush), has three hopefuls in the mix: the Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and George Pataki.

Assuming he runs, Richardson will try to be the first Democratic nominee without a degree from Harvard or Yale since Walter Mondale. The last Republican was Bob Dole. You can see why neither party has gone back to that strategy. (Although, Michael Dukakis didn't exactly win one for Harvard Law in '88, either.)

Harvard has been more successful in its in-state rivalry with Boston College over the governor's chair. Romney will be succeeded by another two-diploma Crimson, Deval Patrick (undergrad and Law) -- who beat Harvard alum Kerry Healey after trouncing Harvard alum Chris Gabrieli and BC Law grad Tom Reilly. Harvard also educated Bill Weld and Dukakis; Paul Cellucci and Ed King were Eagles. (Acting Governor Jane Swift went to Trinity.)

[David S. Bernstein]

12/8/2006 10:10:29 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

Yes, that's right, www.mittspaces.com is a brand-new MySpace-ish site devoted to praising all things Romney-related. It is unaffiliated with the campaign, and was created a few days ago by Wade Eyerly, a radidly enthusiastic young Republican operative I first came across a couple of years ago, when he helped run a small 527 organization called "Fight for Right." He's worked for Dick Cheney, and is a big big big Mitt Romney enthusiast.

Anyway, it's got 24 "friends" already, which is more than the frightening-colored Mitt Romney for President site on real MySpace (although several MittSpaces friends appear to be related to Mr. Eyerly).

It's going to be interesting watching how Presidential candidates try to use new outreach tools in the '08 race, and I don't doubt that some interesting ideas will originate in these kinds of early, unofficial, draft-candidate-X efforts.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/7/2006 6:11:19 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

Chris Cillizza says that Bush/Cheney '04 political director Terry Nelson will be John McCain's campaign manager, while Hotline says that Beth Myers will be Romney's.

Nelson is directly connected to the 2002 New Hampshire phone-jamming scandal and the Tom DeLay money-laundering scandal, so draw your own conclusions about McCain's standards. More relevant, perhaps, for Romney, Nelson is known as a champion of opposition-research-based ad campaigns -- most notably, this year's Harold Ford "call me" ad. (What's the equivalent for a Mormon opponent? I guess we'll find out.)

Myers, of course, has been Romney's top dog for a long time, and was long ago shifted from running the administration to running his Leadership PAC -- a much more important job on Romney's organizational chart.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/7/2006 11:08:25 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

I have an article in the new issue today about the Boston City Council. They are all jockeying for position to be the next mayor of Boston, but Deval Patrick's victory suggests that the old political paths no longer work.

[David S. Bernstein]

12/7/2006 10:21:05 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [1] |  

Leslie Kirwan, Secretary of Administration and Finance

Grade: B+

First things first: Kirwan was, reportedly, one of the Massport people who Peter Blute called from the boat immediately after being photographed by the Herald boozing it up with lobbyists and bikini-clad babes on Massport's dollar. This has nothing to do with anything, but any time I can slip Gidget into a discussion of state finances, I'm taking it.

Kirwan worked under Charlie Baker in Bill Weld's A&F office, and since then has been Massport's CFO -- staying there even when first Blute and later Virginia Buckingham got tossed. She helped pull Massport through the post-9/11 fiscal disaster. More importantly, I am told that she has special experience and talent working with local governments (she was the local liaison under Weld), and her selection is a signal that Patrick will make the state/municipality financial relationship a major focus of his administration. To which I say, Hallelujah, and good luck. Here the big caveat: I have to believe that Kirwan was recommended by transition-team co-chair Gloria Larson, who was Weld's economic affairs secretary and presumably worked very closely with Kirwan. So, if you're not too keen on Democrat-come-lately Larson's influence over the Patrick administration, this could be a bad sign.

[by David S. Bernstein]

12/6/2006 6:28:17 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [1] |  

Again from the WaPo: Dick Cheney's daughter Mary and her longtime partner are having a baby.

Comments, anyone?

12/6/2006 11:10:20 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [1] |  

OK, this is just priceless -- take a guess at what Republican Congressman Jack Kingston of Georgia is complaining about in this quote from today's Washington Post:

"____ eats away at families.... Marriages suffer. The Democrats could care less about families -- that's what this says."

Answer: The Democrats' announcement that Congress will hold session five days a week.

You see, Republicans have become so efficient at doing the people's work, they will set a new record by working only 103 days during the two-year session that's wrapping up now. When they aren't on one of their long and frequent vacations, the legislative week has typically "started late Tuesday and ended by Thursday afternoon," the Post writes.

Plenty of time to fly home to Georgia, to spend time with your family.

But now, new House majority leader Steny Hoyer says that he's going to have the House in session from late Monday through 2:00pm Friday. Bastard!

Instead of keeping their mouths shut about it, Republicans actually came forward to complain about actually being asked to work. This bodes well for Democrats hoping that Nancy Pelosi and friends can expose the GOP as a bunch of buffoons now that the gavel is changing hands.

[by David S. Bernstein]

12/6/2006 10:58:44 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [4] |  

In a report released yesterday, the Commonwealth's Office of Campaign and Political Finance has conveniently tallied up the candidates' spending on the recent state-wide elections, which reaced a state-record $51.3 million despite the almost total lack of competition for four of the six offices. Candidates for governor spent a combined $42.3m, and LG candidates spent another $6.7m, while the races for attorney general, treasurer, secretary, and auditor accounted for $2.3m.

Half of the total came from candidates' own pockets -- more specifically, the losing candidates' pockets.

Chris Gabrieli spent $9,475,000 of his own funds, Kerry Healey $9,400,000, Christy Mihos $3,694,007, Deborah Goldberg $2,185,005, and Larry Frisoli $150,000. None are currently preparing inauguration parties.

Deval Patrick is credited as spending $348,173, although it appears that he has repayed himself $200,000 of that since the OCPF tally.

Healey spent a total of $13.1 million, more than half of it during the primary (in which she was unopposed). Patrick spent $5.7m in the primary -- going back to January 2005 -- and just $3.1m in the general election. That does not count the independent expenditures, mostly by unions, on his behalf, which were not insignificant. More on that later.

[by David S. Bernstein]

12/6/2006 10:08:07 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [3] |  

If you are one of those legendary 'grassroots' volunteers who helped the Deval Patrick campaign, please read this account of a frustrated Republican volunteer's dreary experience on the final days of the Lincoln Chafee re-election campaign in Rhode Island. I'm guessing your experience with Deval was better?

12/5/2006 3:56:24 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [1] |  

As expected, Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas filed papers to form a Presidential exploratory committee this morning. Brownback is way, way behind Mitt Romney in pursuit of the presumably open position of right-wing alternative to McCain/Giuliani in the Republican nominating process.

Romney is way ahead in developing funders, getting organized in early primary/caucus states, and recruiting key people.

On the other hand, Brownback has the support of Domino's Pizza founder Tom Monaghan, who brings with him the votes of the residents of Ave Maria, his personal Catholic town described by my colleague Adam Reilly in the article City of God.

[by David S. Bernstein]

12/4/2006 5:32:01 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [1] |  

Bruce of mAss Backwards happens to be one off my best friends, going back to long-ago college days, so I have my own personal reasons to be sad that he's packed up and moved to New Hampshire. But I think it's a loss for the Boston political blogosphere as well.

Obviously, Bruce and I disagree pretty completely about policy and political ideology -- which, by my reckoning, makes him wrong about almost everything. But I think he's a good blogger: smart, funny, highly readable, and original. He hasn't stopped blogging yet, but I imagine if he does keep it up he'll mostly be pointing his BS detector at Granite State targets from now on. (Quick warning to Presidential candidates doing the Main Street hand-shaking thing: the guy with the short blond hair is highly opinionated, doesn't like politicians, and is probably armed.)

The loss of one blog wouldn't be worth mentioning, but for the sad void of local conservative voices on the Web.

Peter Porcupine is way down on the Cape, and posts too seldom; so too Mass. Conservative News and Mass. GOP News and Views. Pundit Review, Car Pundit, Jules Crittenden's new Moving Forward and New England Republican all have potential, but pay too little interest to local issues. As for the Margolis brothers at Hub Politics (and their various sister sites)... well, the less said the better.

There are also some local-area blogs for the truly hate-filled, including Republican Voices and Mass Resistance, but I get bored too easily with exposes of "HomoFascist Thuggery."

I know there are smart, witty conservatives in this state -- Democrat, Republican, and Independent. So, where are the good blogs?

[by David S. Bernstein]

12/4/2006 10:49:29 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [3] |  

Here's John Kerry, on CNN's Situation Room yesterday, trying to steal an issue away from Al Gore:

"Teresa and I are writing a book right now on the environment. It's a book we look forward to bringing out in a few months. I'm excited about it. We deal, obviously, with the issue of global climate change, but with a lot of other issues."

Hey, why not turn it into a film -- maybe call it "An Inconvenienter Truth?"

What's next: "I Had Audacious Hope Before This Obama Guy?"

Maybe he could plagiarize Joe Biden?

Dare I suggest: "It Takes a Village Idiot?"

[by David S. Bernstein]

12/1/2006 2:21:21 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [25] |  

The headline of this post is rhetorical, of course. You see, contributions to 2008 Presidential campaign committees are eligible for matching funds from the government beginning January 1, 2007. So, a week in Asia after the first of the year -- after he leaves office -- would cut into Romney's valuable fundraising time; whereas a week in early December merely takes him away from the relatively unimportant business of doing the job he was elected to do.

[by David S. Bernstein]

 

 

12/1/2006 12:05:47 PM by Adam Reilly | Comments [0] |  

I suppose it's good that Jahmol Norfleet's death has brought attention back to the violence on Boston's streets -- you know it's serious when the Mayor drags the wheelchair-bound six-year-old out for the cameras, right? But I'll throw a little bit of perspective and information in that seems to be lacking.

1. There have been quite a number of former gangbangers shot down in the past couple of years, some of whom had been 'out of the game' for a lot longer than Norfleet. It happens. You don't get to be a violent gangbanger and then just say you're out. And they know that.

2. Yes, there has been a serious attempt to broker a truce between Heath Street and H-Bloc; there was a similar successful effort in the South End earlier this year, and at least one other that I'm aware of. But there was also a six-month federal sting that led to 18 arrests of Heath Street members and associates a couple months back, that nobody seems to mention.

3. Heath Street has roughly 100 members at any given time. It's been around forever in one form or another. Its members have been "feuding" at one time or another with almost every gang within a few miles. One building in the Bromley-Heath project -- literally, one single apartment building -- was one of Boston's five "hot spots" of gun violence identified by the BPD a year ago. Honest, decent B-H residents terrified for their children constantly beg the city to do something about it; they must be oh-so-thrilled that the city seems to care more about how the Heath Street gang affects Jahmol Norfleet than them.

4. Holworthy Street -- one of the notorious 'triple-H' streets -- has been home to its fair share of gangbangers for at least 15 years, probably longer. The violence wanes and waxes, but there's nothing new about this, and nobody thought this "truce" meant an end to the neighborhood's problems. (One known H-Bloc member was arrested on firearm charges just three weeks before Norfleet was killed.)

5. I know I'm a bit of a broken record on this point, but when the police are making arrests in 20 percent of shooting homicides, and maybe 5 percent of non-fatal shootings, no truce is going to last very long, and pleas to restrain from retaliation fall on deaf ears.

[by David S. Bernstein]

 

12/1/2006 11:00:12 AM by Adam Reilly | Comments [2] |