Two years out from the 2009 Boston mayoral vote, I take a look at whether there's any chance of someone other than Tom Menino winning that election -- and rank the 40 Bostonians with the best shot at it. My top five: 1) Michael Flaherty, 2) Ralph Martin, 3) John Tobin, 4) Chris Gabrieli, 5) Steve Lynch.

It's in this week's Phoenix, out tomorrow but online now:

Menino's Hit List: 40 potential candidates for the 2009 election who could take on the mayor — if they have the courage.

11/28/2007 3:42:32 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [12] |  

Scott Bloch, head of the Office of Special Counsel (OSC), is back in the news. In May 2005 I told you about Bloch, in an article titled "Bush's House Homophobe." At that time, the White House had assigned an Inspector General to investigate complaints filed against Bloch. That investigation has yielded little to date, thanks to Bloch's stonewalling and obfuscating.

This April I told you that Bloch had taken it upon himself to launch an investigation of Karl Rove's alleged improper politicization of, among others, the Attorney General's office. At that time, I quoted Barney Frank's concern that Bloch was taking on that investigation to stall it, and protect Rove and others from real inquiry.

I may not have been sinister enough in my thinking; others have since charged that Bloch did it to create a conflict of interest between the OSC and the White House that is investigating him.

Today, the Wall Street Journal writes that last December, Bloch had his computer's hard drive surgically scrubbed, along with those of two of his departing deputies. And I mean scrubbed -- real high-level, leave-no-trace stuff; and he used a private computer-service firm rather than his department's techies. And yes, your irony sensors are correct, one of the main allegations Bloch is supposedly investigating is whether Rove and others erased incriminating emails from their computers.

Bloch absurdly claims that the procedure was done to eradicate a computer virus. Then, the WSJ has this doozy, apparently confirming the suspicions cast upon Bloch's self-insertion into the Rove mess:

Mr. Bloch believes the White House may have a conflict of interest in pressing the inquiry into his conduct while his office investigates the White House political operation.

The lawyer for the former OSC employees who brought the complaints against him issued a letter today to President Bush, copied to the White House Counsel and various senators and congressmen, begging for him to do something about Bloch. But then, who would get to the bottom of the Rove/AG scandal?

11/28/2007 12:45:41 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [4] |  

As the Daniel Tavares Jr. double-murder tragedy continues to dog Mitt Romney on the campaign trial, it's worth revisiting and updating some data that the Phoenix uncovered a year ago, in the midst of then-Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey's attempt to portray gubernatorial opponent Deval Patrick as soft on violent crime.

That data, from the US Justice Department's Uniform Crime Reporting statistics, showed that the arrest rates for violent crime in Massachusetts -- below the national average to begin with -- plummeted after the Romney/Healey administration took office in January 2003.

In 2006, the state's arrest rates for murder, robbery, and aggravated assault have rebounded, while the rate for rape remains very low -- the national average is just under 30%. This might be evidence for the theory mentioned in my previous article, that placed the blame on state local-aid budget cuts; 2006 saw that trend reversed, and local aid restored.

As for the rates of the crimes themselves, the number of aggravated assaults continued to decline in 2006, but other violent crimes increased or held steady.

Here are the arrest rates for violent crimes, for the three years prior to Romney (2000-'02) and the three subsequent years ('03-'05), as reported in that article -- along with the 2006 numbers released this October:

                 '00-'02   '03-'05   '06
Murder       48%       26%      40%
Rape          26%      14%      17%
Robbery       23%      11%      24%
Agg.Assault  48%      29%      49%

And here are the crime rates (per 100,000 population) for those same periods:

                '00-'02   '03-'05   '06
Murder      2.3         2.6         2.9
Rape         28         28         27
Robbery      102      120         125
Agg.Assault 350      312        292

11/27/2007 7:46:48 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

You may recall a brief flurry of gossip, nearly two years ago, that our own Senator Edward Kennedy had a secret love child, fathered 20 years earlier. That alleged love-child, and love-mother, are both residents of East Sandwich, and today they filed a lawsuit in Boston's federal court against the National Enquirer, which "broke" the story in February 2006.

That's the plaintiffs on the cover, identified with the labels "Secret Son" and "Lover." The article claims that Secret Mom received cash payments, plus a Mustang convertible and a pure-bred Shar-Pei for keeping Ted's paternity secret. It also says that a paternity test confirmed that Ted was Secret Father. Scandalous!

The story made the national and international rounds for a while, particularly among the Kennedy-bashing conservatives. It also made it into most of the local area mainstream media, including the Boston Herald. As the lawsuit points out, Howie Carr had a field day on his radio show.

According to the plaintiffs, the Enquirer's story is, shall we say, not entirely true -- or more accurately, entirely false. They're suing for defamation, intentional infliction of emotional distress, and other counts.

BTW, it's looking like maybe Natalee wasn't really sold as a sex slave either. And Bobby & Whitney didn't divorce until much later. On the other hand, I believe that Star Jones turns out to really have had gastric-bypass surgery, so not everything on that cover was wrong!

11/27/2007 5:09:44 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies released survey results today that show how popular Hillary Clinton is among African-Americans. Really, really, popular -- slightly moreso than Barack Obama. John Edwards also rates well. Republicans not so much -- all four Republican Presidential candidates included in the survey received more unfavorable ratings than favorables. (And a whopping 58% gave Bush a "poor" rating, the lowest assessment offered. Just 11 percent say he's doing a good or excellent job.)

But the antipathy toward the GOP runs much deeper, and belies the theory that the party might have an opening to start loosening the Democrats' hold on black voters. To hear some GOP optimists tell it, African-Americans A) strongly oppose illegal immigration, which they believe takes away jobs and drives down wages; B) strongly oppose gay marriage and other aspects of secular liberalism, due to their strong religious (and particularly evangelical) views; and C) have begun moving up the economic ladders of success (at least some of them), and thus have more conservative views on government and taxes.

If so, the Joint Center failed to find it. Almost none of the survey's respondents cited taxes, immigration, moral values, or even terrorism as the most important issue facing the country. Instead, they said the Iraq War, health care, the economy, and education.

11/27/2007 2:21:57 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

The Granite Prof has numbers on WMUR ad buys. Our old friend Mitt Romney has invested heavily, sayeth the professor:

During October, Romney regularly spent more than $100,000 a week on ad buys at WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial television station. 

This month, Romney upped the ante yet again.  His campaign is now spending more than $200,000 a week on WMUR:

October 31 - November 6: $219,865 for 191 ads

November 7-13: $228,500 / 220 ads

November 14-20: $227,475 / 204 ads

That's Romney round-the-clock, at the rate of more than one ad an hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Rudy Giuliani made his first buy, a healthy $144,995 for 119 ads between Nov. 15-20. McCain ran 323 ads between late October and this past weekend, at a cost of $274,475. Among Democrats, Obama leads, spending a half-million on 500 ads in the past four weeks.

Down in South Carolina, Presidential campaigns have thus far spent an estimated $2.5 million on TV and radio ad -- $2 million of which was from Romney, according to the Charleston Business Daily Journal.

11/26/2007 3:40:37 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Newly filed campaign-finance reports covering the first half of November -- including the final week leading up to the city election -- show just how badly Felix Arroyo was outspent by the four at-large candidates who defeated him. Here are the expenditures for that period, in order of finish.

Michael Flaherty:  $61,773
Stephen Murphy:  $36,012
Sam Yoon:  $69,465
John Connolly:  $56,010
Felix Arroyo: $2,468

11/20/2007 1:42:02 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [4] |  

A new CNN/WMUR poll of likely primary voters finds Romney's lead widening -- mostly because Giuliani's numbers are falling:

Romney: 33%
McCain: 18%
Giuliani: 16%

Ron Paul -- who, New Hampshirites tell me, has a ubiquitous advertising presence up there -- is at 8 percent, followed by Huckabee at 5. Fred Thompson, who apparently never got the memo that Granite State voters expect you to campaign there in person, has slipped from merely embarassing to actually humiliating, at sixth place.

11/19/2007 5:33:31 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [3] |  

Well, forget what I said yesterday about American Research Group's mysteriously Romney-favorable polling. Today ARG released a new poll of Iowa likely Republican caucus-goers that shows Romney's lead whittled to a sliver: Romney 26%, Huckabee 24%.

BTW, be sure to read today's New York Times feature on Mitt's coming of age, as a Mormon missionary in France and then at BYU.

11/15/2007 11:07:43 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |  

NYPost's Page 6 sez that Jon Bon Jovi might be considering running for governor of New Jersey.

This explains a great mystery of the fifth floor of City Hall: those pictures of JBJ gracing the wall of a certain City Councilor staff member are campaign posters.

Sources speculate that the above-mentioned staffer's loyalty to her current boss could be broken by a job offer from Mr. Bon Jovi's political team....

11/14/2007 4:29:19 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

A couple of weeks ago I blogged about American Research Group polling that had Mitt Romney surging in South Carolina -- in sharp contrast with all other polling in that state.

Now ARG's latest national GOP preference poll has Romney vaulting to an incredible 21% -- in a solid second place, within 4 points of Giuliani. No other national survey has put him higher than 14%, and most have him at 11 or 12 nationally.

I don't know what this means, but I'm always open to crazy conspiracy theories....

11/14/2007 3:53:47 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Jim Marzilli -- buoyed, no doubt, by his inclusion among Boston Phoenix's recent list of "green heroes," zoomed to victory in yesterday's primary, in the race to succeed state senator Robert Havern out in the 4th Middlesex. Along the way, he broke the Curse of Blue Mass Group, but extended the victory streak of Italians, who have won consecutive special elections for state senate (Anthony Petrucelli and Anthony Galluccio) and should make it three with Marzilli.

11/14/2007 3:35:59 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Mitt Romney's strategy for winning the Republican nomination begins with winning Iowa, and pretty much ends if he doesn't. Until recently he was dominating the polls there -- although, as I've previously noted, he's never pulled a real powerhouse percentage, even with Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson largely skipping the state.

I have also posited that the Republican race really started fresh a few weeks ago, with the settling of the "real" field of candidates. No more waiting on Fred T. and Newt G.; no more pondering which second-tier candidate would prove viable. One of the following Fab Five will be the nominee: Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson, or Huckabee. Now, people can start picking from that bunch.

With the menu in front of them, Iowa Republicans don't seem to be choosing Mitt. Two new polls from Strategic Vision and the New York Times now show Hustlin' Mike Huckabee surging in Iowa, trailing Romney 30%-19% or 27%-21%, depending on your choice of polls. Huckabee's supporters are also more solid in their decision, with Romney's more apt to say they may yet change their minds. And on top of that, Political Wire reports that "a poll coming tomorrow confirms the trend and shows the former Arkansas governor with a real chance at winning the Iowa caucuses."

Huckabee's charge has forced Romney to start treating him as a genuine candidate and real threat; Mitt's reportedly begun blasting him in Iowa over illegal immigration.

It's also forcing a re-calculation by the Giuliani people, who were fine writing off a Hawkeye State loss to Romney, but aren't so sure they can afford to finish third, or quite possibly lower. So, America's Mayor is beginning to re-engage in Iowa. That's more trouble for Mitt. (Giuliani is also launching a major NH TV ad buy, which you'll get to see on your local Boston stations -- lucky you.)

On the plus side for Romney, winning a hard-fought race there would help him even more than winning a gimme. But he's got to win it.

11/14/2007 1:54:47 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

My prediction for Hillary Clinton's VP choice (should she get the nomination) endorsed her today: Ohio Governor Ted Strickland.

That's all. I just wanted to go on the record with that....

11/9/2007 3:15:48 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [5] |  

This week's issue of the Phoenix, out tomorrow, is a special "Green Issue." My contribution is a contratian essay arguing that eco-living -- changing one's personal habits to combat global warming -- is a corporate strategy to distract attention from what really needs to be done... and to make profits off of well-intentioned consumers' concerns about the earth.

It's online now:

Mirth Day
The idea of a consumer-led environmental movement has pollution-belching multi-nationals rolling in the aisles — and the joke is on you

11/7/2007 3:17:54 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |  

Barack Obama's New Hampshire State Director, Matt Rodriguez, wants you to "Come join Deval Patrick for a day trip to New Hampshire this Saturday." Bus leaves from the parking lot of the Charlestown 99 Restaurant (really?) at 10:00am, whisking you away to canvas in Dover, Concord, Littleton, and Merrimack. (More info here.)

This is an early test of whether the Governor's endorsement will translate into swarms of grassroots volunteers crossing north to help the campaign in New Hampshire.

11/7/2007 12:00:50 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [0] |  

Congratulations to John Connolly for an impressive and hard-earned victory yesterday, and also to Mark Ciommo who overcame a spirited challenge from Gregory Glennon to win the Allston-Brighton seat. My thoughts:

--Sadly, I must now retired one of my favorite tired tropes: that offspring of Irish politicians can't get elected in this town. I hate when I lose one of my comfortable, simplistic prisms through which to process the complex dynamics of politics.

--Why yes, I did write way back in April that "Felix Arroyo may be the most vulnerable at-large incumbent this coming November," thanks for remembering! I certainly haven't been rooting against him, but the signs have been there all year. BTW, both Steve Murphy and John Connolly had nothing but nice things to say about Arroyo last night.

--A big loser yesterday was Chuck Turner, despite his mammoth crushing of poor, ignored Carlos Henriquez. Turner's influence inside City Hall was probably at its peak this year, as he exerted control over the four-member Team Unity (Turner, Arroyo, Charles Yancey, and Sam Yoon) that, among other things, helped put Maureen Feeney into the council presidency. But with Arroyo gone , and no evidence that Turner and Yancey can provide big chunks of votes, it's hard to imagine that Yoon will stay with the Team. And a two-person Team Unity is just Chuck and Charles being Chuck and Charles.

--It would be easy to lament what looks like a backsliding in city politics to the old days of white Irish and Italian men, what with the addition this year of Salvatore Lamattina, Bill Linehan, John Connolly, and Mark Ciommo; and the failures of Felix Arroyo, Susan Passoni, and Tim Schofield. But I see this as a continuation of the Young Turks movement that is really what New Boston is all about. Truth is, Sam Yoon fits right in with Connolly, Ciommo, Mike Ross, Rob Consalvo, John Tobin, Michael Flaherty... pretty much all of them. There are no more reactionary Kellys and Dappers to be elected in the city anymore; there are only degrees of progressivism. I'm as discouraged by the shrinking number of minority and female city councilors as anyone, but I'll go along with what Connolly told me last night: "I hope we're moving toward a Boston that's about making sure that people from every walk of life can have improving schools, and safe streets -- and their elected leaders can come from any walk of life."

--Another winner yesterday was John Tobin, who was unopposed this year after facing a challenge from a sharp, progressive Latino Gebron Rivera two years ago. Tobin surely didn't want to look, again, like White West Roxbury's candidate against the rising Hispanic JP tide. (Yes, folks, I still have plenty of comfortable, simplistic prisms left!) Tobin also backed, and stood by, Connolly, gaining himself a new ally on the council. But most importantly, Tobin's district voted in huge numbers, even without a contested district race, apparently far out-polling even Consalvo's vote-rich district and the hotly contested A-B race. That's evidence of a very strong base should young Tobin set his sights on higher office....

11/7/2007 10:19:15 AM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [16] |  

Ron Paul, flush with cash but by his own admission too lazy to do much in-person campaigning in New Hampshire, makes it up to the Granite State tomorrow. Mostly he's doing press drop-ins, but he's agreed to speak to students at Nashua South High School.

Sadly, Paul's appearance there is at 9:15am, so he'll be long gone by the time Hillary Clinton makes her appearance at Nashua South High tomorrow evening at 7:00pm.

Wouldn't you just love to see them turn that into a joint appearance? A one-on-one debate? Now THAT would be entertaining.

11/6/2007 3:36:19 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [2] |  

Well, thank goodness we have a meaningless, manufactured controversy around which we can center tomorrow's city election. God forbid we should find ourselves talking about substance, issues, or experience.

Let's see if I can recap the events of the past several days.

John Connolly wishes to become an at-large city councilor, which right off the bat brings his judgment and mental acuity into question. Connolly had a chunk of money set aside for TV and radio ads, but rightly concluded that he'd be better off sending loads of mailers and fliers to the roughly 126 or so Bostonians who might actually vote. One of these mailers attacked an incumbent, a perfectly natural political act; specifically, it suggested that Stephen Murphy often seems more interested in finding his next job than doing the one he has.

The only sin there is lack of originality. But for some unknown and idiotic reason, the Connolly campaign chose not to identify itself on the mailer as the source of the piece. Then they played cute about it before fessing up to the authorship. This bizarre brain spasm on Connolly's part was an early Christmas gift to Murphy, who quickly leapt to the moral high ground and trumpeted a righteous plaint of Connolly's cowardly anonymity. Others in and around city politics are also expressing their shock and dismay over this dastardly scheme -- because Lord knows nobody in Boston politics has ever anonymously criticized another pol. As a journalist, I can personally attest that all of our local officeholders and their staffs insist on being named and fully identified whenever speaking ill of their colleagues; you should hear the umbrage when I suggest hiding their identities behind vague sourcing! No, never such cowardice for me!, they cry.

Then came a separate piece, from something called the "Parkway Coalition," which urged West Roxburians to bullet-vote Connolly. This refers to the strategy of using just one of the voter's four available selections, a shady and dishonorable practice that even the most inexperienced Boston operative knows you're supposed to encourage privately while denouncing publicly. The "Parkway Coalition" appears to be a front for the John Connolly campaign, seeing as they use the same permit number for political postage rate, so on this one Connolly seems to have combined two sins of stupidity: stating publicly something that he's supposed to only say privately; and hiding his culpability really really badly.

As with the attack on Murphy, I don't quite understand why Connolly and/or his people didn't want to be up front about the whole thing -- especially since the Boston Globe has, in effect, endorsed a Connolly bullet vote. So why not just say that?

11/5/2007 5:49:51 PM by David S. Bernstein | Comments [1] |