
Friday, March 28, 2008
Jon Keller has sussed out that Deval Patrick was on a book-pitch trip to NYC on the day of the casino vote -- and in retrospect, couldn't we have guessed that from the clues?
I don't think it means much of anything. But the story may matter nevertheless.
It's absolutely legitimate for Mass. residents to be wary of gubernatorial absenteeism, even to the point of hypersensitivity, after Romney, Cellucci, Weld, Dukakis.
Patrick's Obama-promotion travels have already helped fuel rumors that the gov has got things other than the Bay State on his mind. An autobiography will of course be seen by many as another piece of evidence toward that. So, as symbolism, a trip out of state, during a high-profile vote, to shop that book deal is pretty potent.
And the reason this all actually matters is that right now, the strongest weapon Deval Patrick has going for him is the perception that he's going to be around longer than Sal DiMasi.
True or not, there is a widespread perception on Beacon Hill that DiMasi is a short-timer at this point, and his move to follow Trav (and so many others before them) into the lucrative world of lobbying is only a matter of time.
If folks think that Patrick will stick around, fully engaged, for a good long while -- long after Sal is calling his golfing partners clients rather than contributors -- they'll be far more likely to see the benefit of helping move his agenda. Anything that works against that perception -- real or symbolic -- can only hurt him.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Well, so much for that.Menino -- who plopped another $28k or so of contributions into his campaign account today -- continues to look more and more daunting. Will nobody step in with a serious campaign to enliven the tedium of the suffering political journalists?
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
In my Talking Politics column in this week's Boston Phoenix -- out tomorrow, online today -- I take a look at two hot-button issues. First, natch, there's last week's casino vote. DiMasi was able to split the state reps who support slot machines at race tracks, or so-called "racinos," from the casino supporters, which helped him defeat the bill. But those racino advocates are unlikely to get their proposal passed without the casino supporters in the house. If the sides get together on a compromise bill -- as Governor Patrick began actively pushing as the end grew near -- perhaps casinos aren't dead after all. Second, I look at the stunning announcement last week that the Boston Public School budget is soaring at a rate that will require the cutting of tens of millions of dollars. The casino debate kept this issue from getting the attention it deserves, but that will change soon -- perhaps as early as tomorrow, after tonight's school committee meeting at which the draft budget will be submitted. Hey: do you think any ambitious city councilors will use budget hearings to grandstand over Mayor Menino's drastic cuts to school programs? I do. [ Update: This afternoon Menino announced plans to use $10 million cash from reserves to help cover the school deficit.] The column is online now. No Side Bets:The governor’s gaming legislation crapped out, but are
casinos still alive in a compromise? Plus, a school-budget crisis could start a
political firestorm.
Friday, March 21, 2008
State senator Robert Hedlund does not, in fact, hail from the mythical town of "Weyland," as I wrote in the current issue of the Boston Phoenix, but from the beautiful burb Weymouth. Bob can feel free to make fun of me on his radio show for that one. Also, Darrell Crate does not spell his name "Darryl."
On another note, Methuen Mayor Bill Manzi maintains a strong public facade in response to my decision to root for his arch-nemesis Michael Sullivan of Lawrence in their weight-loss contest. But you can sense that his will is crumbling -- I'll bet he was chowing down a pint of B&J as he typed.
...how many of the state reps who voted to kill the casino plan were keeping track of NCAA hoops scores during yesterday's floor debate for the pool they're in?
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
For years, Republican candidates for governor have gained an edge in Massachusetts by playing up the fear of what a unified Democratic Party, working together, would do with control of both the legislature and the administration. That message didn't resonate in '06 -- perhaps because voters cogently foresaw that Democrats under the Statehouse Dome would end up fighting one another rather than getting anything done. "Unified" and "working together" rarely describe anything on Beacon Hill; you could install conjoined twins as Governor and House Speaker, and they'd still find a way to plot behind each others' backs. One outcome of this, I suggest in an article in this week's Boston Phoenix -- out tomorrow, online today -- is that the Massachusetts GOP has lacked a stationary target against which to define itself as the voice of opposition. You can read it here: Whither the GOP? With Democrats in total control of state government, the
Massachusetts GOP should be a rising voice of dissent. Instead, it seems more
impotent than ever.While I'm talking about Bay State Republicans, I'll confess that I'm
currently rooting for one: Lawrence Mayor Michael Sullivan. I didn't
speak to him for this article, but I always enjoy chatting with him, so
I've decided to take his side in his "biggest loser" diet contest with
(Democratic) Methuen Mayor William Manzi. Sullivan holds the early lead after the potentially crippling "Lawrence corned beef and cabbage luncheon." My concern is that Sullivan, who is term-limited out next year, may go soft and lose focus in his lame-duck years, while Manzi, from what I understand, will remain fit wrestling his police chief round-and-round the town. Go Mike Go!
After much agitation-provoking delay, the Clinton Library has released the daily schedule of Hillary Clinton during the WJC administration; I just scanned January 1994. Scholars, opposition researchers, and conspiracy theorists will be busy today: The Hubbells are on the 1/7/94 flight manifest! She had a private meeting with Merck's CEO and lobbyist on 1/21/94! But I find it fascinating to browse through and see the day-to-day life of the FLOTUS (First Lady Of The United States): meet with Queen Noor; attend David Geffen event with Hollywood's elite; meet children in Santa Monica affected by the earthquake (earthquake? oh yeah, the Northridge earthquake); observe a birthing class with Mrs. Yeltsin; meet-and-greet with Wellesley students; attend Alfalfa Club Dinner ("Dick Cheney intros surprise speaker"); and of course lots of staff and health-care policy meetings.
I have often analogized contemporary race relations in America -- in conversations with both white and black people -- with a couple arguing without understanding what the other is really thinking. The husband suggests vacationing in South Carolina instead of Florida this year, because they both like to golf. The wife gets upset, thinking that he dislikes her family and wants to permanently end their annual visits. He can't understand her overreaction, and suspects that she's so dead-set on Florida because she wants to see her old hometown boyfriend. They end up fuming seperately, unable to even have the honest conversation that might clear things up. Perhaps the most obvious example of this was the O.J. Simpson trial, which Barack Obama briefly cited in yesterday's speech. Black Americans tended to think it obvious that a black man should not be convicted (for killing white people, no less) on the basis of evidence gathered, in questionable fashion, by a clearly racist detective. White Americans tended to see an obviously guilty man, and were baffled by blacks seeming to take his side; they attributed it to an unreasonable, even hateful, "us vs. them" mentality. To many blacks, white Americans rooting for conviction seemed to be saying that anything goes in the cause of convicting a black man. Whites and blacks were reduced to guessing what was in each others' minds, and resenting what they imagined lay within. That same effect plays out, I believe, in everything from police brutality to debate on affirmative action or welfare, and a million topics in between. One of the results is the tendency of many black Americans -- such as Rev. Wright -- to suspect conspiracies where none exist. Many commentators were stunned by Wright's charge that the American government created AIDS, but that theory has been circulating in black America forever. ("Concocted a germ warfare to the booty/I rocked
it/105 million going down/In the ground/Most in the black and the
brown/How did I catch this riddle/If I didn't crossover/Like
a Hardaway dribble/They blamed it on some/Green African
monkey/Now ain't that funky." --Public Enemy, 1994) And when, a decade after that PE rap, both Dick Cheney and John Edwards were clearly ignorant of and unresponsive to the devastatingly high rate of AIDS among black American women when Gwen Ifill broached the topic, you can understand why such conspiratorial suspicions percolate -- it's not so different from the husband convincing himself that the only explanation for his wife's behavior must be that she is in love with her old boyfriend. In both cases, of course, that paranoia only does more harm -- and fuels equal suspicion and resentment on the other side. And, just as the couple needs to talk things out before they'll be able to enjoy their vacation, blacks and whites in America need some open conversation before we can successfully move forward on a whole range of issues. Which I think is what Barack Obama was getting at yesterday. All that said, I have one other remark: How can Barack Obama present himself as having authority to speak about race issues, when he never saw his father march with Martin Luther King Jr.?
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Writing nearly two years ago, I noted the gulf that needs to be bridged between the liberal blogosphere and certain traditional core Democratic constituencies, particularly labor. The continuing existence of that chasm was brightly on display today: unions demonstrated in support of Deval Patrick's casino plan, while progbloggers (as I like to call them -- why has this not caught on?) continued to rail against them. What a day: Obama speaks frankly about race and religion in America, and David Paterson speaks frankly about his and his wife's affairs. The Chicago Transit Authority is recruiting ordinary riders as " mystery shoppers" to report on conditions and needed repairs. Silly Chicagoans -- Bostonians don't wait to be asked! The Charlie Sheen connection has to be the most predictable aspect of the Spitzer scandal. And finally, State House News Service just sent out an item with the headline: CLARIFICATION/CORRECTION - TUESDAY, MARCH 19, 2007. Well, at least they got the day of the week right. D'oh!
The Herald has a story today about the pols with the biggest campaign war chests, but I'm afraid Dave Wedge is going to be a little red-faced when he realizes his numbers are all wrong.
He made a common mistake: not realizing that the monthly campaign-finance bank reports do not include funds that have been transfered to other banks, usually in the form of CDs.
So for instance, Wedge has State Treasurer Tim Cahill sitting fourth on his list, with $429,000 cash on hand. But Cahill's committee has roughly another $2 million in CDs; he is actually far and away number one. (See my year-end list here, second page.) Likewise, William Galvin really has $2 million, not $600,000.
I'll give Wedge the benefit of assuming that he's only including pols holding state offices. (In my list, six of the top ten spots were held by county or city officials -- and I didn't even include the US Senators and Congressmen this time, because their FEC year-end reports weren't in yet.) Nevertheless, I suspect one of the first calls Wedge will get this morning will come from the Mayor's office -- Wedge's list would suggest that Tom Menino failed to make the top 20, and must have less than $150,000 on hand. That's not going to scare off any challengers. In fact, Tommy has about $1 million. The second call: Michael Flaherty.
Still, it's a little amusing to see the Herald scream of "Staggering Stash Of Cash," when it only saw a fraction of the real dollar amounts. Oops!
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Tonight at 10:00 on MTV, Boston's own Status Quo is in the final four of "America's Best Dance Crew," an American Idol style show. Status Quo was one of 12 teams competing for $100,000; they'll need lots of votes to keep going. Do your civic duty. Show your Boston pride. Watch and vote!
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
The Boston Globe has a big front-page scoop today about the Feds closing in on more Boston police officers in the Roberto Pulido scandal -- well, not so much scoop as following up on what I wrote in last week's Phoenix. (Go to the bottom three paragraphs.) The Globe report focuses only on charges of steroid use, which may indeed be what the current grand jury is looking at. But there is much more than that. Commissioner Ed Davis declined to comment to the Globe, but what he told me was, to my mind, extraordinary: “When all is said and done, the cancer that was growing within the Boston Police
Department will be removed.”
That's a public official conceding that there's a cancer in the department. Ouch. As to the steroids, there's been little question that the Pulido investigation would lead to cops getting in trouble; it has not been clear (until this Globe story) that the steroid buys would lead to criminal charges. The Feds have Pulido, in photos and audiotapes, selling steroids on at least six different occasions in 2005. Specifically, the goodies included testosterone, deca, sustanon, winstrol stanozolol ("winnies"), and somatropin/nordtropin (growth hormones). Oh, and syringes. It's been not much of a secret that the buyers include other cops. (They also have Pulido selling identities on at least 20 different occasions in '05 and '06, a steady operation which likely involved other officers and/or state employees. Then there are all the BPD guests at Pulido's monthly debauchery gatherings, and lord knows what else.) Once the identities of the steroid-buying officers becomes public, the city is likely to get hit with a heavy round of litigation from citizens whose claims to have been roughed up by those cops were ignored; those claims will look very different, in retrospect, when juiced-up cops were involved. The department has long turned a blind eye to steroid use. It's going to cost them at the least in the public trust, and perhaps in the taxpayer's wallet.
Reportedly, Eliot Spitzer will resign this morning; he has an 11:30 press conference scheduled. If true, we have now clearly delineated where the boundaries lie. If you are a zealous, sanctimonious prosecutor turned New York politician, and you commit... A) ...no adultery (Bill Weld): you fail to get elected. B) ...discreet, private adultery (Eliot Spitzer): you get elected, but must resign as soon as the indiscretion is revealed. C) ...open, public adultery (Rudy Giuliani): congratulations! You get to serve two full terms!
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Mayor Menino took a little January breather after raising an eye-popping $1.1 million in campaign contributions in 2007, but has since picked up the pace again. Among his '08 donors so far are at least 33 people whose paychecks are printed by the City of Boston, including new School Superintendent Carol Johnson, BRA Director John Palmieri, and city councilor Stephen Murphy. A few notables from outside City Hall: James Aloisi, Bruce Bolling, Patrick Lyons, Ellen Parker, Linda Whitlock, and Colleen & Darnell Williams. But most of the bucks have been coming from the building/trade/real estate/development industries: multiple contributions have come to hizzoner from execs at Bluestone, Bulfinch, Continental Wingate, CWC Builders, Dimeo Construction, ICON Architecture, and many more. Carpenters' unions have given $11,500. But not everyone interested in big buildings is taking Menino's side. A few are giving to city councilor -- and likely mayoral candidate -- Michael Flaherty. His contributors so far this year include commercial real estate developer Robert Beal; construction monarch Jay Cashman; and Kenmore/Fenway area developer William McQuillan. And Flaherty has received contributions from bricklayers', electrical workers', laborers', and sheet metal workers' unions.
Monday, March 10, 2008
You may recall that in late 2006, it looked like the legislature might try killing the same-sex-marriage-ban initiative by not voting on it. The initiative's backers went to the Supreme Judicial Court, which ruled that, although the state constitution requires the legislature to take an up-or-down vote on all pending initiative amendments, the court has no judicial remedy if the leg ignores this duty. When it all played out, the legislature voted on the marriage initiative -- but tabled a universal-healthcare initiative. That initiative's supporters brought their own case, and today the SJC came to the same conclusion: the legislature disobeyed its constitutional duty, but there's nothing we can do about it. The court did offer, however, that: a further remedy lies with the voters at the next election when they decide who
will represent them "agreeably, to the rules and regulations of the
constitution, and the laws of this Commonwealth."
Somehow, I doubt the voters are likely to take that step -- but there's a valid point here. Elected officials shouldn't be allowed to disobey the SJC's clear interpretation of the state constitution. And they did.
Given the thrashing the paper received over its "Lover McCain" article, I'm going to guess the NY Times has got this "Spitzer's Pretty Woman" story nailed down. I've been waiting for the supposed 2:15 announcement, which still hasn't come; perhaps they're having a little trouble convincing his wife to stand by him? If Spitzer resigns, Lt. Gov. David Paterson becomes the first Black Governor in NY history.... so, instead of the incessant Deval Patrick comparisons against Spitzer, we'll get incessant Deval Patrick comparisons against Paterson.
Sunday, March 09, 2008
"Benny" writes:
Any insight on the Walsh senate seat race? Who's going to run, and who's got the best shot?
This all assumes that Marian Walsh gets her judgeship, which certainly seems like a done deal from what I've been told by insiders for some time now. Most people I've talked to agree that there's room for one Boston pol and one Dedham or Norwood pol in the race; city councilor John Tobin's pulling papers to prepare for a run may be a signal to Rep. Michael Rush and councilor Rob Consalvo that he's planning to claim the Boston spot. From outside Boston, I'm hearing a lot about Jerry Kelleher of Norwood; John Rogers is unlikely, but who knows.
I'm hard-pressed to predict this one yet, especially not knowing who else might jump in from Norwood or Dedham. But I do think that Tobin would have a great shot at it -- and I will go out on a limb and predict the winner of the election to replace him on the City Council, should that happen: Matt O'Malley. (Although to be sure, it would be a hotly contested race.)
Friday, March 07, 2008
In response to my call for questions, "Hoss" writes:
Some Boston politics questions:
- Does Sonia Chang-Diaz have a chance to beat Dianne Wilkerson? - Will Ralph Martin run for Mayor? - Will Mayor Menino run for reelection in 2009?
Basic questions, but probably complicated answers.
My short, best-guess answers are: No, No, and Yes.
Chang-Diaz is an impressive candidate. But Wilkerson has thus far followed through on her end of the bargain she made with her constituents in '06: send me back, and I'll stop screwing up. Wilkerson's strong defense of her constituents' interests in auto-insurance reform and other issues helps her, as does the continuing progress on CORI reform legislation. But perhaps most importantly, the gay-rights community will continued to stand by Wilkerson, who was a crucial ally in killing the amendment ballot-initiative last year.
Now, if Wilkerson was to not run, we could have a terrific race between Chang-Diaz and Mike Ross.
As for Martin, his latest campaign-finance report confirms that he commissioned a poll from Kiley & Co.; he sure hasn't been acting much as though the results gave him great confidence. I suspect he'll only run if Menino doesn't. And I see no reason to think that Menino won't run -- barring health-related or other reasons arising over the coming year or so.
For a little Friday fun, I'd like to invite you all to ask me any questions you might have on your mind. Any topic you'd like: local or national politics, something I've recently written, current issues and events, gossip and rumor, whatever. Ask away using the comments for this entry, and I will try to answer in posts later today. I look forward to your Qs!
It is a sure sign of the idiocy of today's 24/7 media whirlygig that a casual catty remark made by an unpaid campaign advisor to a Scottish newspaper during a book-promotion tour becomes the center of the political universe. Alas, 'tis all too true. Our own local academic celeb Samantha Power, of Harvard's Kennedy School, blurted out some ill-chosen verbiage about Hillary Clinton during an interview with the Scotsman about her latest book. Power is an unpaid senior advisor to Barack Obama. Believe it or not, today all the buzz is about the Obama camp calling Clinton a monster. Welcome to the funhouse!
This falls right under the heading of "haven't they learned by now" that I mentioned in a post yesterday: when Obama, his supporters, or the media treat Hillary like she's doing something wrong, something unseemly, by continuing to campaign, they help her.
But they just won't stop mocking and belittling her, often in the most sexist manner -- whether it's Margery Eagen comparing her with Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction or Larry David calling her "Sybillish" and on the brink of madness.
Obama can hardly clam up Eagen and David, but you might think he'd keep his own team under control.
There's another, more serious reason for Obama to sweat this "monster" mash-up, though: he really doesn't need Samantha Power to draw attention to herself right now.
Power (with whom I have spoken several times over the years), is primarily known for her work on genocide issues. But she has a bit of a reputation for being perhaps not the greatest friend to Israel. She can be seen as advocating a position that the broad Middle East problems will not be solved until Israel stops maltreating the Palestinians. That may not be exactly her stand, but there's more than enough truth to it to justify the wariness about her among many staunch defenders of Israel. Of whom, there are quite a few who vote in Democratic Party primaries. Including in, say, Pennsylvania.
I'm not trying to take sides in that controversy; just pointing out that Obama has recently come under attack on his views on Israel, and anything that draws attention to the role Power plays in his campaign is certain to revive those complaints.
Update: Like John de Balliol abdicating at Stracathro, Power has met her end in Scotland; she has reportedly resigned from Obama's campaign.
Thursday, March 06, 2008
The Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce has released its much-anticipated report on the expected costs and benefits of Deval Patrick's casino proposal. I've gone through it, albeit not yet with the proverbial fine-toothed comb, and on balance it should boost the pro-casino side, while not dampening the enthusiasm of the antis. The big numbers are pretty much in line with the Gov. The report estimates that auctioning the three licenses would easily bring in $600m and likely quite a bit more. The annual benefit to the state fund's bottom line (after factoring for decline in lottery revenue, and local-impact and health mitigation) would be roughly $400 million, give or take $30m. The casinos would employ between 17,000 and 20,000 employees, most paying between $36k and $44k and requiring only a high school diploma and GED. Construction would require 30,000+ worker-years of labor, but assumes a three-year construction period, resulting in 10,000+ jobs rather than the 30,000 Patrick has cited. Of some $2b of total annual gaming revenue, three-quarters would come from Massachusetts residents. When it comes to societal costs (or benefits), the report discusses the
existing research but draws few conclusions; overall, it seems to
suggest that the concerns are mostly theoretical, probably with some
validity, but probably not huge. Casino opponents will likely fault the report -- prepared by an independent firm -- for relying in parts on research conducted by those with a perceived bias toward casinos. (UMass Dartmouth's Clyde Barrow, Harrah's, etc.) The report also suggests, but does not discuss in any detail, that the Wampanoag tribe might be able to move ahead with a successful casino without a compact with the state. This is a key part of Patrick's argument: that casino gambling is coming anyway, so we should get ahead of it and do it right. Some disagree, and argue that the tribal casino can be stopped. I wrote about this debate at some length in this piece last August (see second page).
With our local stake, Belmont's Own, out of the race, I've been a little lax about blogging on the Presidential race. (I hope you've been keeping up via Steven Stark.) Herewith a few quick takes: --I keep hearing how this ongoing battle for the nomination is bad for the Dems and the eventual candidate. Really? I can't help but notice that the latest head-to-head national polling (taken just before Tuesday's voting) has Obama at his best numbers yet against McCain: Washington Post has Obama +12; Cook has Obama +9. Clinton has nudged ahead of McCain in RCP's rolling average for the first time since the primaries started. Texas and Ohio had record-breaking turnout for the Clinton-Obama vote. The last debate was watched by 7.8 million people, the most to ever watch any programming on MSNBC. Both candidates are raising money faster than anyone has ever imagined possible. Pennsylvania papers are reporting massive interest already starting, a month-and-a-half before their primary. --In my December article predicting the course of the race throughout '08, I've had my hits and misses. Here's what I wrote about potential third-party candidates: "Ralph Nader and Ron Paul both work on getting onto ballots, as does a
nativist/populist candidate, likely Lou Dobbs. Bloomberg makes noise but
ultimately chooses not to run." I was right on the money about Nader and Bloomberg, wrong it seems about Paul. And what of the "nativist/populist candidate"? I wouldn't count it out yet. --I think Obama and his team (particularly Axelrod) are making a mistake attacking Clinton for staying in the race. Have they not learned that the louder the squawking about the impending death of Clinton's campaign, the more voters (particularly women) have responded by trying to save it? When you're leading in the fourth quarter, you don't complain that the other side is leaving their starters in instead of subbing in their scrubs; you keep playing hard until the buzzer sounds. Gripe privately, but you'll get no sympathy by doing it publicly. --Just after my new "Gen-X Obama" story went online, I got home to the new issue of New Yorker, which includes a fun profile of Michelle Obama; now there's a Gen-Xer for you!
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix, I have an essay about Barack Obama -- the first potential President of my generation. I suggest that he has built his campaign on themes and rhetoric that are foreign to people born, as both he and I were, between the Baby Boomers and the Boomers' children, the Millennials. Hope and idealism are not in our vocabulary. And when I look back at Obama's career, I see him more like me and my generation. When did he become like this? My answer: perhaps he's adopted this persona because it appeals to the Boomers and Millennials, whose votes he needs to get elected. The issue is out tomorrow, but the article is online now: Obama Outside the BoomThe first political leader of my generation acts nothing like the rest of us —
which might be how he’s gotten where he is.
In state party politics, people always talk about "developing the bench," which in large part means getting people to run for relatively small-potatoes local offices, from which they will eventually become candidates for higher office. Small offices like, say, school committee.
Guess what? It works.
Sean Garballey, at the tender age of 23, just jumped from Arlington School Committee to state representative. Kevin Aguiar, a Fall River School Committee member, will now represent the Bristol 7th. Former Melrose School Committee member Katherine Clark won Michael Festa's vacated seat.
The exception was Lori Ehrlich, a Swampscott CPA and environmental activist, who won in the 8th District. Cheater!
Congrats to them all (and good luck with re-election in eight months...)
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