No question, the two GOP gubernatorial victories matter to the 16 million people who will now give a try at living under a Republican. But beyond that, can we say that yesterday's elections mean something?

I don't believe that they are predictive of what the 2010 election cycle will look like. But it could end up affecting behavior -- ending up making it predictive.

--I think Michael Flaherty ran a terrific campaign. Not much more that he could have done. It just wasn't in the cards.

--Ditto for Tito Jackson. And Carlos Henriquez. And Alex Selvig.

--And yes, I was wr.. wr... wr.... I was wr... wr... Damn! I was wrong about Boy Wonder Felix Arroyo.

--Biggest surprise, to people I spoke with last night (and to me): Steve Murphy's outstanding showing, nearly topping the at-large field.

As of 3:00 this afternoon, just under 60,000 ballots had been cast in Boston -- a 16.7% turnout so far, with five hours left, including the after-work rush. Based on the trends in the preliminary -- which had a relatively high late vote -- we can expect roughly 115,000 votes.

One thing I'm looking for is where voting is up (or not) relative to the September preliminary -- and were those Menino strongholds or anti-Menino neighborhoods in the preliminary?

"NathanSpencer" asks, via Twitter appropriately:

"Are tools like Twitter and Facebook really helping candidates GOTV? Who is using it best?"

I've seen no evidence of it helping in any significant way with GOTV in any local elections, and have heard few if any convincing tales from elsewhere. I'd love to hear from anyone who has experience to the contrary, though.

"Alice Mitchell" asks:

"What do you think about the Newton race now that it's down to Ruth Balser and Setti Warren?"

It's a very interesting race, that I haven't followed closely enough for anyone to trust my prediction. Warren (w/ campaign mastermind Deb Shaw) has been very impressive, but I think ultimately Balser's got too much built-up good will in the town. I say she wins -- but we haven't seen the last of Setti Warren.

Here's a great question, from "Sammy":

Who are your favorite political staffs to deal with, whether it be mayor's office, city council, state, etc?

Before I answer, I want to say that I've just realized that our snazzy new blog format is not showing that I am indenting the questions in these answer posts, like the one above.

The Qs keep coming! "Venkman" asks:

Do you think emailgate will make its way into the Senate race? Could Coakley's dismissal of the issue become an issue?

I think emailgate (the heavily reported issue surrounding missing emails within the Menino administration) has barely made its way into the mayoral race, beyond that core group of people who really, really care about that kind of thing -- who were voting against Menino anyway.

Here we go, off and running with Ask Me Anything Day! First up, "Rob" asks:

If Menino defeats Flaherty in November's election, does Flaherty become the immediate front-runner for the 2013 mayoral election? What are your thoughts on what Sam Yoon does? I'm also interested on which current candidates (Menino or Flaherty) other potential 2013 candidates are supporting/endorsing, and if you think that affects their future chances at all.

We got our first one-on-one mayoral debate tonight. I thought Michael Flaherty was very good, but Tom Menino was quite good, and as far as I know he's holding the lead in the late innings, so I'd say the mayor came out fine.

Speaking of innings, how psyched must Menino be that the Sox made the playoffs, so nobody in town could possibly find themselves accidentally taking interest in the mayoral race.

Boston City Council president Mike Ross confirms for me that his chief-of-staff, Reuben Kantor, is leaving to join the Ayanna Pressley campaign for at-large city council.

Kantor, who joined the political arena just a few years ago, has quickly become one of the city's top progressive operatives. "Ayanna will really benefit from Reuben's strength on both the political and the policy side," says Ross, who endorsed Pressley the night of the preliminary election.

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I analyze the at-large Boston City Council race coming out ofthe preliminary election, which narrowed the field to eight. I find that local politicos believe that -- unlike other recent at-large races -- the top four in the preliminary will end up as the four winners in November.

Hmmm... Seems like some commenters don't appreciate my expert analysis. Oh well.

Anyway, let's back up and look at what I prognosticated and analyzed the last time I was asked, about a month ago -- and whether it still stands. First off:

I think that the prelim top four will likely be Murphy-Connolly-Pressley-Arroyo.

Man, I do love me some political theater. I went looking for some at an at-large Boston City Council forum earlier this evening at Roxbury Community College, but the poorly-promoted event had more candidates on stage than voters in the audience (this may actually have been literally true, once you subtract the press and candidates' aides from the audience).

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I have an article looking at what's at stake for Tom Menino in the upcoming preliminary election. Sure, he's going to cruise to victory, and a spot on the final ballot. But what will it take for the city to decide that Menino is unbeatable, and let him coast to November; and what will it take for the city to decide that he's beatable, and give him a real fight? The answer may be a simple number: 50%.