Friday, August 08, 2008
Speaking generically, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian says that closing the door to renewed negotiations isn't a good practice and that it has negative consequences.
He made the remark in response to a question I asked this morning during a taping of WPRI/WNAC-TV's Newsmakers: Does he support Governor Carcieri's stance in his clash with Council 94? Avedisian responded by saying he supports the governor as the leader of the state, but that when it comes to negotiations, it's best to remain open to continued talks.
Avedisian, who has taken himself out of the 2010 gubernatorial race, says his friend Linc Chafee is getting closer to making a decision about whether to run.
Also joining guest host Mike Montecalvo, Arlene Violet, and mysefl were Cranston GOP mayoral candidate Allan Fung and political analyst Joe Fleming. (Fung's Democratic opponent, Cynthia Fogarty, couldn't make today's taping and is supposed to appear on a future show.)
Fung is among the relatively few bright spots for the RI GOP, so I asked how he expects the tradition divide between conservative and moderate elements to play out if Steve Laffey and Chafee are among the gubernatorial combatants in 2010. Fung, who was a Laffey ally when the latter was mayor of Cranston, says he hopes the divisions could be minimized.
Fleming, for his part, believes that a Democrat will be the one most advantaged if the three-way gubernatorial scenario comes to fruition in 2010. While Laffey and Chafee could be credible contenders, Fleming says, a Democrat starts with about 40 percent of the vote.
Given the wild card of Rhode Island's budget and economic fortunes, however, the outlook could be more unpredictable. We'll have to wait and see.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
If y ou want a sense of the message that General Treasurer Frank Caprio will deploy during his likely 2010 gubernatorial campaign, watch his Sunday appearance on 10 News Conference with Jim Taricani and Bill Rappleye.
Caprio talked up the job he has done in the treasurer's office, pointing to how Rhode Island was the first state to be confirmed by the three major bond-rating agencies as having no exposure, in its investment portfolio, in in the subprime crisis. While he toils in an office with a low public profile, Caprio might as well have said, "If I can do this in the treasurer's office, imagine what I can do for the state!"
Asked about his future, the treasurer said he will decide in the next six to nine months on A) remaining in the same office; B) running for a different office; or C) returning to the private sector.
The telegenic Caprio also sounded vaguely Republican, talking of how Rhode Islanders are taxed too much, and of how the wealthy -- "our best customers" -- pay a disproportionately high share of state tax revenue. He described how his office has incentivized job performance by enabling some unionized workers to move, thanks to attrition, into management. "Let's reward those who ad value to the operation," he said.
Caprio looms as an interesting gubernatorial candidate, like a more subdued and less-polarizing version of Steve Laffey, because of: his fiscal background; his centrist profile and his place as someone who gets a lot less public criticism than David Cicilline; his strong campaign fundraising; and his support from the local Italian-American political establishment.
Some of this, though, might work against him in a Democratic primary. As I wrote in profiling the Caprio clan a few years back:
To critics, Judge Caprio’s decision to move his family from Providence to Narragansett several decades back, as well as the judge’s friendly relations with the governor, raise the specter of a pronounced drift toward Republicanism. In January 2003, the judge and his wife attended a Carcieri fundraiser at the Crowne Plaza in Warwick — Bakst described them at the time as “Caricieri pals” — and Joyce Caprio and Marissa Caprio, Frank and David’s sister, have made campaign contributions to the governor, according to the state Board of Elections. Frank and David Caprio are also both said to be quite friendly with Jeff Britt, the governor’s liaison to House Democrats.
Considering all this, Frank Caprio’s early lock on the treasurer’s job “is a very scary proposition to a lot of progressive Democrats,” says one Democratic observer. Having someone sympathetic to the GOP side would represent a coup for Carcieri, the source says. Citing how David Caprio has been part of efforts to unseat [Speaker William] Murphy, this Democrat adds, “They’re not true Democrats. They’re more in touch with the Carcieri clan than the Democratic Party.”
This view, however, is hardly uniform in the liberal wing of the Democratic Party.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Attorney General Patrick C. Lynch joins Steve Aveson, Arlene Violet, and myself this week to talk about immigration, his opposition to a federal shield law, his support for FISA, and other topics during WPRI/WNAC-TV's Newsmakers.
The show will be broadcast Sunday, at 5:30 am on Channel 12 and at 10 am on Fox 64.
The AG, hobbling a bit from a basketball injury to one of his feet, said he was heading to Boston today for a Democratic luncheon with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Is this a great week or what for looking into the political tea leaves for the future of the Providence mayor?
While Cicilline could indeed still run for governor, a string of other events — including the snow storm, his brother’s guilty plea in a federal corruption case, and a steady barrage of unanswered criticism from talk radio (mostly from Cianci), and even the dour economy — have complicated the terrain, offering a stark reminder of how quickly the worm can turn in politics.
At the same time, a small but significant group of Cicilline supporters are encouraging the mayor to pursue a third term — a race in which he would remain a prohibitive favorite — because of concerns that his approach would come undone if he were to leave City Hall.
It would be a mistake to dismiss Cicilline, considering how he and General Treasurer Frank Caprio have steadily led the campaign-fundraising quest for 2010.
And a $25,000 poll undertaken on the mayor’s behalf by the Washington-based Feldman Group indicates stronger support for Cicilline than some may surmise, says a source. The poll, completed in February, reportedly shows generally strong statewide backing for the mayor’s 51 percent favorable rating. It also rated Cicilline as tied with Attorney General Patrick C. Lynch (after Jack Reed, Lincoln Chafee, and Sheldon Whitehouse) for the fourth-highest favorability rating in the state.
Then again, the last time a Providence mayor made the jump to the governor’s office was more than 60 years ago — in 1950, a wholly different political era — when Dennis J. Roberts accomplished the feat. And if Cicilline does go for it, his opponents will have quite a bit more ammunition to use than in the past.
The typical unwillingness of Providence Mayor David N. Cicilline to go on talk radio has become very conspicuous once again, following Governor Carcieri's appearance this week on The O'Reilly Factor.
The mayor's critics have reason to describe his approach as "duck and cover."
Cicilline has his own explanation for what went wrong in the case involving Marco Riz. Yet when he cedes the ground to his critics, he largely forfeits the opportunity to make an effective defense of his own position.
I'll have more on this -- and the question of whether Cicilline will run for governor in 2010 -- in this week's Phoenix.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Someeone heard that Steve Laffey was seen breaking bread at Fleming's a few weeks back with Buddy Cianci and Joe Paolino.
Buddy (on whose radio show I am an occasional guest) yesterday told me that, as he recalls it, the chat took place during "Meatball Mondays," one of the weekly events held at former aide Artin Coloian's Sidebar bar & grill.
He happened to stop in there. We didn't talk much about the governorship. We talked about being mayor. We exchanged mayor stories [with John Lombardi, a former interim Providence mayor, also in the house] ... It was a social event. Steve Laffey, he's very opinionated, and at least he has a theory and a philosophy. And he's a Republican, and I think he can get the Republican nomination, if he wants it. The question is, can he win [the governor's office]? And anyone can win in Rhode Island. We don't know what's going to happen with this economy, and that is a big question. I think he's a formidable candidate. I think he's a guy who can lead the Republican Party. Whether he can win or not is another story.
I asked Buddy to handicap a 2010 gubernatorial race featuring Laffey, Linc Chafee as an independent, and some Democrat, such as Frank Caprio, who seems to be the favored son of Rhode Island's Italian-American political establishment. (For an update on David Cicilline's possible gubernatorial aspirations, check next week's Phoenix.)
I think Caprio wins that, if he's the Democrat, and he gets the support of the Democratic Party. He fits that mold I was telling you about, not close to the unions. He's south of Division Street, Harvard graduate, clean cut, strong political family.
Chafee running as an independent has a problem. There are three ingredients you need in order to win as an independent, because I've done it three times, four times. Number one, you need strong name recognition; Chafee has that. Number two, you need money; I imagine his wife [Stephanie] has got a lot of money, so they could put it in if they were so inclined to. Could they raise money otuside of their own? Yes, but I don't think it would be phenomenal. Number three, you need something to make an independent candidacy work, and that is an organization. And that he does not have.
Does he have any charisma? Not necessarily. Is he going to walk into a restaurant, or is going to walk into a hall, and everyone's going to yell and scream? Not necessarily true . . . He better think twice about running. I think if he runs as a third-party candidate, he ensures Caprio's victory. So if I were Frank Caprio, I'd be praying for him to run.
Chafee, IMHO, would be a strong gubernatorial candidate and assembling an organization would not be particularly difficult for him.
And considering how even six months can be an eternity in politics, it remains to be seen which of any number of Dems will lead the party in 2010.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Popping back into public view with an op-ed in today's ProJo, Steve Laffey resumes the mantra for his forthcoming 2010 gubernatorial campaign.
While there are some good things in the budget, that it is balanced on over $100 million in savings from Medicaid and personnel that are unlikely to be attained means that elected officials continue to manage the decline of this great state. With a poor economy and a frighteningly high unemployment rate, Rhode Island has yet to turn the fiscal corner with this budget.
To turn the corner we need to reinvent Rhode Island. We need real structural change to lift us from the bottom rung of states and transform Rhode Island into a place where our kids can stay and prosper, and where new businesses can locate and thrive. If our state legislators had the courage to solve just one of our major structural problems this year we would be on our way to being a state that could start to compete.
Let me give you an example: solving our state pension disaster. The problem: Rhode Island ranks 49th out of 50 states in funding its state pensions. We have an unfunded liability of over $4.3 billion and are scheduled to spend $397 million this year alone on state pension benefits. One out of every eight dollars we are taxed is going to the pension system!
Now, the legislature could fix this problem. Under state law, without any negotiations with the unions, it can change the pension system. In 2005 there were much-heralded “reforms” to the system. However, the changes only affected younger workers. Thus, a large majority of the workers were not affected at all. These “reforms” only got the legislators through the 2006 election cycle.
Friday, June 06, 2008
UPDATE: It's a done deal.
WPRI-TV's Tim White broke this news last night:
The Target 12 Investigators have learned a plea deal is in the works in a case against the brother of Providence Mayor David Cicilline.
John M. Cicilline and three others were charged last year with obstructing justice and making false statements. The U-S Attorney's office in Boston says the case alleges Cicilline and disbarred Rhode Island attorney Joseph Bevilacqua, Jr., conceived a scheme to set-up a drug deal so their clients could get a lighter sentence.
A criminal trial at federal court in Boston is scheduled for Monday.
But an attorney for one of the defendants, Juan Giraldo, tells Target 12, the government has offered the four defendants in the case, a plea deal.
"There is discussion to put all these things to rest to possibly get a favorable result," says attorney William White. "But I'm not aware of a defendant accepting anything."
Cicilline and Bevilacqua were law partners when they represented John and Jacqueline Mendonca of Massachusetts in a drug trafficking case.
According to the U.S. Attorney's office, the scheme required the Mendoncas to pay Cicilline and Bevilacqua one-hundred thousand dollars. In return, their legal assistants would set-up drug deals that the Mendoncas could then share with federal investigators for a lighter sentence.
According to documents filed in federal court last week, the government plans on playing several conversations between the attorney's and the Mendoncas, who were wearing a wire.
White tells Target 12, it's unclear if the deal with prosecutors has to be taken by all the defendants in the case.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Who owns the Chafee for Governor URL?
None other than RI GOP activist Bob Tingle, a Huckabee supporter who has also talked up Steve Laffey in the past. (Click the first link in this sentence to see the details on the Chafee Web site registration.)
One supposes that Tingle, a pit boss at Foxwoods, is covering his bets.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Providence Mayor David N. Cicilline also stopped by the Newsmakers' set for a taping of this week's broadcast. The show is broadcast Sunday, at 5:30 am on Channel 12 and at 10 am on Fox Providence.
He denied that his budget revenue projections are overly rosy, asserting that Worcester has enjoyed success in tapping a multi-million dollar cash stream related to trash and recycling. He defended Police Chief Dean Esserman's out-of-town travel for conferences and such, citing it as an indication of the quality of his work, although he was unable to answer Arlene's question of just how much time Esserman spends out of town.
I asked about Mary Sylvia Harrison's observation that Providence's schools are controlled by a culture that is "potent, formidable, and toxic." Is is true, and if so, what will the mayor and incoming superintendent Tom Brady do to overcome it?
Cicilline danced around the question a bit, but his response suggested a measure of agreement.
Some of our more interesting dialogue came on the set after the show ran out of time.
I asked what criteria Cicilline will use in deciding whether to make a gubernatorial run. He said it comes down to balancing whether he feels his job is done in Providence and whether being in the governor's office would make it possible to get more done. No doubt there are other considerations, such as the field of candidates and how that would affect the mayor's prospects.
Cicilline said he will put "some" political capital behind the notion of adding at-large seats to the Providence City Council -- a measure that the council needs to act on by August 6 for it to be placed on the November ballot. He expressed disappointment that Common Cause of RI seems reluctant to lend its imprimatur to the concept, but talked up efforts by citizens to build momentum.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Charlie Bakst has an engaging farewell today to Darrell West, who, as we know, is leaving Brown to take a post with the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. West's status as perhaps the top pundit in Rhode Island stems not just from his knowledge and ability to offer concise quotes, but also how he quickly returns calls from reporters. Anyway, this is the part I found most interesting in today's article:
In West’s office there are photos showing the professor with Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during visits to Brown.
He says Obama will be the next president of the United States.
“She’s not going to be the Democratic nominee,” West says. “She seems to be the only one who doesn’t recognize that fact.”
He also says Clinton has too much baggage for Obama to offer her the vice presidency.
Obama spoke at Brown in October 2006. “He gave one of the best speeches I’ve ever heard,” West recalls. “Very smart. Very charismatic. People love him. I think he needs to fine tune his message. Primary after primary, he’s lost the blue-collar vote to Hillary Clinton, and I think he really needs to focus more on economics and focus on working people and what he would do for them. I think they’re a little suspicious of all the lofty rhetoric that he uses. They want to know what he’s going to do about bread and butter issues.”
In John McCain, West says, Republicans are putting up their strongest candidate, but it’s not enough.
“McCain does well among independents, and that’s going to be a plus. People like him personally. They think he’s honest and ethical. But I think the big albatross around his neck is George Bush.”
With the unpopularity of the war, with worry over the economy, and with people’s “hate” of the incumbent, West says the Democrats’ chant that McCain is running for Bush’s third term will be lethal.
In calling Bush the worst president he has ever seen, West asserts, “He doesn’t learn from past failures.”
Most politicians make adjustments, West says, noting, for example, that Ronald Reagan was rocked by the Iran-Contra scandal but made personnel and policy changes. “By the time he left office, he had regained a fair amount of his popularity. Bush is going down with the ship. He refuses to admit any mistakes, hasn’t made any significant policy changes, hasn’t really made major changes in personnel. He’s not a real politician in the good sense of the word.”
Friday, May 16, 2008
Cranston Mayor Michael T. Napolitano seemed a bit surprised during a taping of WPRI/WNAC-TV's Newsmakers this morning when I asked him to evaluate the accomplishments and mistakes of his colorful predecessor, Steve Laffey. Napolitano responded by saying he is correcting some of Laffey's mistakes, but he was reluctant to get into detail.
Laffey's record in Cranston can be expected to get considerable attention during his all-but-announced 2010 gubernatorial campaign.
Closer to home, Napolitano faces a mayoral challenge this year from Republican Allan Fung and possibly a Democrat.
In other news, Napolitano defended the city's $1.9 million buyout of the Cullion concrete plant at a time when Cranston's schools face a $4.9 million shortfall to close the year.
Also appearing on Newsmakers this week are Representative Joe Trillo (R-Warwick) and former lieutenant governor Charles Fogarty, who talked about the state budget, corruption, and the presidential race. The show will be broadcast Sunday at 5:30 am on Channel 12 and at 10 am on Fox 64.
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