Maureen Moakley, chairwoman of the political science department at the University of Rhode Island, believes a second Carcieri term would yield relatively minor cuts — “some trimming on the edges” — to Rhode Island’s traditional social services. The General Assembly restoration of the governor’s cuts during budget season, she says, is “an inevitable thing.”

Still, the way in which House Speaker William J. Murphy of West Warwick worked with Carcieri to pass a tax cut for the wealthiest Rhode Islanders this year shows how a Republican governor and Democratic legislators can strike improbable common cause. Fogarty maintains the money from this cut — described by proponents as part of an effort to make the state more economically competitive — would be better focused on property tax relief.

And while the governor and the Generally Assembly teamed up to pass pension reform last year — to the chagrin of some labor-affiliated Democrats — the state has yet to take on such nettlesome issues as tax reform and school aid reform.

Similarities + differences
The two candidates are united in their opposition to the proposed Harrah’s Entertainment-Narragansett Indian casino in West Warwick, although Fogarty, unlike Carcieri, supports putting the casino question before voters. While Fogarty contends that the state already depends too much on gaming, his stance against Question One has alienated and angered some of his would-be supporters.

If nothing else, the question offered Fogarty a chance to differentiate himself from Carcieri, although casino proponents’ aggressive get-out-the-vote efforts in urban areas could still benefit the Democrat.

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Fogarty supports Question 2, which would restore the vote for felons who have completed their prison sentences, while Carcieri opposes the measure.

Marti Rosenberg, executive director of the progressive coalition Ocean State Action (who emphasized that she was speaking on behalf of its members, and not in her organizational capacity), says some of them remain extremely concerned about Carcieri’s proposed cuts to the RIte Care health insurance program and other social services.

In noting their respective stances (Carcieri is pro-life, while Fogarty is pro-choice) Rosenberg describes how abortion rights could potentially be restricted in Rhode Island if the Supreme Court were to make a ruling weakening Roe v. Wade.

In another issue important to progressives — that of same-sex marriage — both candidates are opposed, although Fogarty “has said he wouldn’t veto a marriage bill,” Rosenberg says, while Carcieri has said that he would veto it. Rosenberg also described Fogarty as a supporter of a mandatory overtime law for nurses, and of a regional greenhouse gas initiative, while Carcieri has not backed either measure.

House Minority Leader Robert Watson (R-East Greenwich), on the other hand, touts Carcieri as a better fiscal watchdog. “Under Governor Carcieri, I believe we’ll continue to reform the mechanics and workings of government in a way that will save taxpayers’ money,” says Watson. “I fear Governor Fogarty will preside over a state government four years later that’s probably twice as large as the one he took over.”

While this latter statement seems hyperbolic, it’s also representative of how at least a chunk of the electorate — which has little love for the legislature — views the prospect of broader Democratic rule at the State House.

Back to basics
Curiously, in a year when a number of US Senate races across the nation, including the one in Rhode Island, have become referendums on George W. Bush, the unpopular president hasn’t much figured in gubernatorial races around New England.

Maybe it’s just the difference between a federal and a state office, but the 2006 gubernatorial race is strictly a matter of the candidates, their records, and their competing campaign messages.

While Carcieri has crafted a strong suit in “standing up to the General Assembly and fighting against corruption and insider dealing,” says Brown University’s Darrell West, “Fogarty’s best card is jobs and health-care. He probably knows more about that subject than anyone else in state government.”

With a plan dubbed Hope Health, Fogarty vows to insure all Rhode Islanders by 2010, in part through a public-private insurance partnership for people who cannot get employer-sponsored insurance and who do not qualify for other public coverage programs. The Democrat blames Carcieri for how the number of uninsured Rhode Islanders has grown, to 125,000, from 66,000 in 2000.

The two camps have sparred over jobs and spending. Fogarty scores Carcieri for presiding over the creation of roughly 15,000 jobs — 5000 fewer than the goal previously identified by the governor. Carcieri, however, has touted his setting of a goal as positive in itself, and he points to investment by such employers as Amgen, Bank of America, Citizens Financial Group and Fidelity Investments, as well as the use of $4 million to create the RI Small Business Loan Fund Corporation.

In one clear distinction, Fogarty is taking part in the state’s matching funds program and Carcieri is not — the first time that one gubernatorial candidate has been in and another out since the program was created. The difference is not evident on television, however, where both candidates have enough resources to broadcast plenty of commercials vying for voters’ attention

On the statewide front, if Carcieri and a couple of other Republican candidates for general offices were to win office, it might yield, as URI’s Moakley notes, a slightly more competitive partisan situation. Then again, Rhode Island Republicans — who have yet to enjoy much electoral success at the State House, beyond being able to capture the governor’s office — would be wise not to bank on such an outcome.

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Ian Donnis: idonnis@thephoenix.com