It appears that Purcell’s real asset is the Herald property. Under one scenario, he sells the land, moves the Herald operation, and reinvents it as something new.

But as what? There’s been chatter about the Herald going free, and last Friday, Purcell acknowledged, “That’s something we’ve looked at.”

But the Metro — a quick 15-minute read aimed at non–newspaper buyers — is already there. Purcell has talked about Philip Anschutz’s Examiner experiment, which entails producing and distributing free daily tabloids to upscale Washington, DC, and San Francisco neighborhoods. But that’s expensive, and Purcell has said that to “take on 200,000 [home deliveries] out of the gate would be a bit of a stretch.”

Another suggestion acknowledged by Purcell is to narrow the paper’s mandate and reach, perhaps to focus on communities inside Route 128. With only about a dozen news-side reporters now, the paper really can’t cut any further without curtailing its ambitions.

And at this point, even if he were to infuse the Herald with resources from a CNC sale, it’s hard to envision a scenario for turning the paper around. And that’s why any impending deal will go a long way toward determining Boston’s future as a newspaper town.

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“It makes sense that nobody likes the Herald,” says one observer who believes that you’d need to buy it with the Patriot Ledger to have a shot at success. Purcell is “like a packhorse. He’s run in the mud his whole life. Very few other people could have kept the Herald alive, [but] I don’t think he can survive alone.... He’s tried everything.”

Then there’s this Catch-22-type analysis from newspaper consultant John Morton. When asked if there’s still a way for Purcell to make the Herald work, he says, “The only one I can imagine is the one he’s got.” Morton goes on to explain that Purcell’s best bet is to hold on to the suburban papers and cross-sell advertising in both them and in the Herald.

“There’s a reason,” he adds solemnly, “why second newspapers disappear.”

On the Web:
Mark Jurkowitz's Media Log: //www.thephoenix.com/medialog
Herald Media: //www.heraldmedia.com/
MetroWest Daily News: //www.metrowestdailynews.com/