The reverse is true, too. This is particularly true with pitchers. I think hitters are a lot easier to project. Pitchers are so mechanical, and have so many more mechanical aspects of the game, and can change so rapidly.

There are certain areas where we’re really just not wrong very often. We usually predict hitters very accurately. And pitchers, as long as you keep in mind especially a cardinal thing like strikeout rate, you’re not going to be wrong very often. A pitcher in the minors who has a terrific ERA but strikes out 4 1/2 guys per nine innings is going to get shelled as he goes up to AA and AAA, and is going to be a very mediocre pitcher in the major leagues nine times out of 10.

These are areas that are complementary to each other. I don’t know if one should be supreme, you’ve just gotta have an open mind and take in all the input that you can when making an evaluation of a player.

MM: This is covered exhaustively in Mind Game, but could the Red Sox have won it all in 2004 without hiring stats guys like Theo [Epstein] and his minions, and taking on Bill James as a consultant?

SG: I think it would have been difficult. One of the hardest things for a team to do is to change its direction — to make itself into something that it hasn’t been for a long time, or never was. And the Red Sox were stuck in a rut for a long time under the previous ownership. The Harrington regime really seemed convinced that the Red Sox were a small-market franchise that was fatally handicapped by Fenway Park. They really were not very creative in that way. They failed to acknowledge the revenues that NESN brought the team, they didn’t see what an asset the ballpark was, and they didn’t have the imagination to add to the ballpark or augment it as this ownership has. So right there, that limited them as far as using the advantages of revenues that could be tapped.

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As far as on-field stuff, they had Dan Duquette, who was creative in a certain sense, and in a sense he was too creative. He was restless and impatient and looking for all sorts of quick fixes, taking flyers on some very sketchy players. It was sorta cool that he was giving the downtrodden a chance, but he didn’t give them very long chances, and when it didn’t work out, there wasn’t a plan B. And since it’s the Red Sox, who do have the financial wherewithal, they’re not the kind of team that should necessarily be doing that.

I think it was essential to bring in new eyes and new minds with new ideas, and new ways of looking at things. And instead of having this ownership that’s been around since the 1930s with certain inherited perceptions of the team and what it can accomplish and how the money can be spent — push that aside, and say this is what we can do. This is how we capitalize. We shouldn’t get fringe players; we should spend some money on getting some top-flight pitching like Curt Schilling. And go forth from there. I really think it’s essential.

MM: What are your thoughts about the 2006 season?

SG: Well, obviously they’re going to be right there in the thick of the American League East. That said, they do have some depth problems. They have an excess of starting pitching, but what I worry about in terms of position players is that they really don’t have that much in terms of position players at the upper level of the system, so that if anyone slumps or breaks down, they don’t necessarily have great recourse to the minor leagues. What if [Kevin] Youkilis doesn’t prove to be a guy who can pick up a lot of the slack at first base? Certainly a platoon partner for Trot Nixon has been an issue for years. Trot is a really wonderful player, but he just can’t hit those lefties at all. [Editor's note: this interview was conducted prior to the trade that sent pitcher Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for righthanded outfielder Wily Mo Pena.]

The other thing I’m curious about, and it’s been a little disappointing because he’s been a little banged-up in spring training, is whether Dustin Pedroia can put some pressure on Alex Gonzalez throughout the year — if he can go back over to short and maybe get that job. Because Alex Gonzalez is just a god-awful [offensive] player.

MM: Why did they sign him? It seemed like a surprising move to me. I would have been happy with Alex Cora full-time.

SG: He may end up with some time there. But the thing is that Cora’s been up and down. He might be a guy who looks better in small exposures than he does every day. And in a division where you have Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada, you want be a competitor at that position.