So will Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey prove the ascending dragon-slayer who knocks off US Senator Lincoln Chafee, a favorite target of conservatives everywhere, or will the herky-jerky heir to one of the best brand names in Ocean State politics repel his challenger and live to fight another day? Amid a number of other political dramas, this question highlights Rhode Island’s September 12 primary.It’s hard not to believe that Laffey’s two terms at Cranston City Hall were always meant as the foundation for this fight, and the mayor has played his hand about as well as possible, offering a disciplined message and his signature self-assured delivery. Of course, whether primary voters buy what Laffey’s offering depends on how much credulity they place in his persona as a man-on-a-mission reformer (who publicly perceives no contradiction in his embrace of trickle-down economics and other elements of conservative dogma).
Chafee’s fortunes will likely hinge on voter turnout and his relative extent of support from independents. In a sign of his camp’s anxiety about the opponent from Cranston, it hasn’t really let up since launching an early broadside of negative television commercials a few months ago. The strategy may have succeeded in raising Laffey’s negative ratings, although possibly at the cost of depressing voter turnout (anyone watching more than 15 minutes of TV these days can’t avoid being buffeted, short of changing the channel, by a dizzying array of attacks from various campaigns). Last week, things remained murky when separate polls released by Rhode Island College professor Victor Profughi and the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee showed Laffey and Chafee, respectively, with a significant lead.
Since it drew more attention, the RIC poll may have bolstered Laffey’s momentum, giving wavering voters psychological reason to back him. Brown University political science professor Darrell West believes independents and a large turnout will carry Chafee to victory.
Regardless of the winner, the negative tone of the fight “creates problems for whoever wins the Republican primary,” West asserts. “It will be difficult for them to compete against Sheldon Whitehouse, because he’s basically had a free ride for four months.”
Indeed, with essentially token opposition from Christopher Young and Carl Sheeler, Whitehouse has been able to preserve his war chest and hone his message during months on the stump across Rhode Island. If everything breaks right for the Democrat, the November election will be a reverse reflection of 2000, when the harsh Democratic primary between Richard Licht and Robert Weygand cleared the path for Linc Chafee’s first election to the Senate.
Carcieri and Fogarty dig in
Although most voters are just beginning to tune in, Governor Donald L. Carcieri and his Democratic challenger, Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty, are already on the air after having previewed their particular message for months.
After spending much of his career in elective office, Fogarty is trying to assume the mantle of reform, calling for term limits, for example, for legislators. The Carcieri camp, of course, doesn’t deem this attempt at framing credible. Still, after Carcieri cited an early job-growth goal for his term of 20,000 — a goal viewed by some as modest — the state’s expected failure to reach that number offers grist to his opponent. Polls have reflected a close gubernatorial race for months, and the candidates will increasingly mix it up. (Fogarty and Carcieri are scheduled to debate September 25, as part of the annual meeting of Common Cause of Rhode Island. For information, call 401.861.2322.)
Rhode Islanders have demonstrated a clear preference for Republican governors over the last quarter-century, with Bruce Sundlun — who made way for Lincoln Almond in January 1995 — being the last Democrat to hold the office. Still, even though Fogarty was initially considered by many to represent a cooked goose, this contest shows every sign of remaining a highly competitive race. For starters, Fogarty is more of a centrist — and probably more broadly likeable — than three-time gubernatorial loser Myrth York. And while Carcieri showed an impressive knack for politics as a first-time candidate in 2002, skillfully setting himself against the Democratic-controlled General Assembly, improved relations between the governor and the legislature over the last two years may reduce his ability to employ this familiar tactic.
Meanwhile, two years after Representative John DeSimone’s unsuccessful challenge to Speaker William J. Murphy, tensions in the House seem to have settled down a few notches. Candidates are competing for seven open legislative seats, three in the Senate and four in the House, amid other contested legislative races. With Carcieri preoccupied on two fronts — his own reelection campaign and his fight against the proposed Harrah’s Entertainment-Narragansett Indian casino — there’s less energy for building GOP representation on Smith Hill.
From the state house to city hall
While state Senator Elizabeth Roberts (D-Cranston) seems the favorite in her Democratic primary competition with former representative Spencer Dickinson for lieutenant governor, the general election would offer tougher sledding. Republican Kerry King has been trying to make hay with an anti-corruption platform, but Reginald Centracchio, the longtime former leader of the Rhode Island National Guard, dealt King’s hopes a setback when he entered the race. While many voters are troubled by the course of the war in Iraq — a potential wild card in a race involving Centracchio — he boasts a grandfatherly manner and broad recognition across the state.
