Call it the revenge of the little guys, if you will. Despite some larger states’ attempts to influence the presidential campaign by bumping up their primary dates, the smaller states who kick off the season are still the ones to watch.
In fact, political experts are almost unanimous in their agreement that the front-loaded nature of this primary season means Iowa and New Hampshire, the contests of which are among the first in the nation, will be more important than ever. After all, strong showings in these smaller states can create momentum for candidates as they head into the super-primaries later.
Could the lesser-known candidates ride the bigger-isn’t-necessarily-better wave to unexpected victory? It’s unlikely, but we’ll have to wait to see. Here’s a recap of how the Democratic candidates are doing in the early states and what kind of showing they need to remain viable. In a future week, we’ll tackle the Republicans.
Barack Obama
Obama would be hard pressed to pick a worse series of opening states than Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire — especially since it looks as if caucuses aren’t going to be his strong suit. At this point, it seems unlikely that his organization in those states will be as strong as either Clinton’s or Edwards’s. Plus, Obama tends to appeal more to Independents rather than Democrats. That’s bad news, since caucuses are often controlled by party regulars. Moreover, none of the first three states has many black voters, which is Obama’s natural base.
New Hampshire is the wild card; Independents can vote in their primary. And in the past, thoughtful, independent-leaning candidates such as Gary Hart or Paul Tsongas have done well in that state. And if he bombs in New Hampshire, South Carolina is Obama’s ace in the hole: with a large number of black voters, he already leads the others in at least one local poll.
Prediction: At this point, it seems likely that Obama will place third in Iowa, second or third in Nevada, second in New Hampshire, and first in South Carolina. If Obama doesn’t win at least one of the first four states, he’s in a bit of trouble. But if he wins more than one state — especially New Hampshire — he’ll become the new front-runner. Obama would be wise to remember the lesson learned by Howard Dean: a weak showing in Iowa could lead voters to conclude he’s headed nowhere, which could hurt his showing in the next three states and cripple his campaign.
Hillary Clinton
As the front-runner, Clinton will be expected to win virtually every contest, so defeats will cost her more than the others. Having said that, her position is opposite that of Obama: the first few states play to her organization’s strengths, plus they primarily involve Democrats (as opposed to Independents). Still, Clinton faces problems: Edwards has a lot of residual support in Iowa from his last run; her husband didn’t carry New Hampshire in 1992; and South Carolina is not an easy state for any New Yorker.
Prediction: Right now, Clinton is expected to come in a close second in Iowa, first in Nevada, first in New Hampshire, and second in South Carolina. The press will read even that as slippage, but it isn’t. The bottom line is, if Hillary doesn’t win New Hampshire, she’s in trouble. If she does, she’s in decent shape heading into Super Tuesday on February 5.
John Edwards
Edwards is very strong in some of the early states by virtue of having run well in them in 2004. Right now, he leads in Iowa polls and is well organized in Nevada. But he’s running way behind the pack in New Hampshire, a state that can be unkind to Southerners. He’s expected to do okay in South Carolina, given that he was born there, and it’s adjacent to his home state of North Carolina.
Prediction: Right now, the expectation is first in Iowa, second or third in Nevada, a distant third in New Hampshire, and third in South Carolina. Such a showing will keep Edwards viable, but barely. To be the nominee, Edwards needs to win Iowa and then ride the momentum from that victory to a stronger-than-expected showing in the next three states. Otherwise, the press, which always wants to reduce the race to two candidates, will write him off.
Bill Richardson
Richardson is trying to crack the top tier but has a long way to go. He’s probably already out of the running in Iowa, so it’s imperative that he make a very strong showing in Nevada, where there is a large Hispanic population.
Prediction: Richardson is expected to finish out of the money in all four states, which will likely end his campaign. His goal must be to win Nevada or finish a close second. If that doesn’t happen, it is all over.
Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel
Unless any of these four finishes a very close second or strong third in Iowa or Nevada, they’re history. The chances of any of them beating the odds are exceedingly slim.
THE FIELD
REPUBLICANS
RUDY GIULIANI Odds: 6-5
JOHN MCCAIN Odds: 2-1
MITT ROMNEY Odds: 5-1
MIKE HUCKABEE Odds: 100-1
SAM BROWNBACK Odds: 250-1
TOMMY THOMPSON Odds: 500-1
TOM TANCREDO Odds: 10,000-1
RON PAUL Odds: 10,000-1
DUNCAN HUNTER Odds: 20,000-1
JAMES GILMORE Odds: 20,000-1
DEMOCRATS
BARACK OBAMA Odds: 5-4
HILLARY CLINTON Odds: 5-3
JOHN EDWARDS Odds: 5-1
BILL RICHARDSON Odds: 70-1
JOE BIDEN Odds: 75-1
CHRIS DODD Odds: 85-1
DENNIS KUCINICH Odds: 25,000-1
MIKE GRAVEL Odds: 1 million to 1
On the Web
Steven Stark's Tote Board blog: //www.thephoenix.com/toteboard
